Morning all, yes after a window of drier weather it looks like turning wet again next week though not as cool. Thereafter anyone’s guess with perhaps some form of zonality knocking on the door, though wether this becomes an entrenched pattern remains to be seen.

GFS0z gives us a brief respite for a few days until LP starts rolling in from the Atlantic again significant LP centres over or near UK from Wed 20th - Fri 22nd Cornwall, Tue  26th Hebrides,  Thu 28th N England, Sat 30th N Sea. Only the last of these makes any headway against continental HP and Tue 3rd sees us under a 1030 mb HP (but you all know how reliable that time frame is*)

Until then UK is Atlantic-cool (or at least near average) and Russia is continental cold with the southerly winds between giving central Europe a mild end to Autumn. http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 . And the same site picks out the UK for rainfall in week 2, especially the S http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4

ECM 0z similar in principle, with minor differences in timing, though the LPs are not as deep as on GFS and tend to be centred further W.

The GEFS chart posted above is quite typical of the country as a whole.

 

* EDIT: to illustrate the point, the screaming N/NE at the end of yesterday's run have been replaced by a weak N flow over Denmark & Germany, not the UK

 

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Looks like business as usual now in the latest models with quite a zonal outlook. Will be keeping a lookout for opportunities but apart from a couple of teasing charts the trend looks less than favourable.

The current output is somewhat frustrating considering the more seasonal feel recently.

Thankfully there is some spread in the ensembles - though it does have that annoying sine wave look developing.

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The current output is somewhat frustrating considering the more seasonal feel recently.

Thankfully there is some spread in the ensembles - though it does have that annoying sine wave look developing.

Quite.

for all the talk of record high altitude stalling winds, the outlook remains utterly typical for the time of year. Perhaps a cold spell can take us by surprise but currently the next 2-3 weeks do not look below average. 

Looks like business as usual now in the latest models with quite a zonal outlook. Will be keeping a lookout for opportunities but apart from a couple of teasing charts the trend looks less than favourable.

Yes certainly as we head towards December a traditional pattern looks like setting up - the pattern that has been forecasted to dominate the winter by the seasonal models.

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I don't need to look at the charts this morning. Shropshire has posted which can only mean it looks mild and soggy.

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I don't need to look at the charts this morning. Shropshire has posted which can only mean it looks mild and soggy.

You make the mistake of assuming he is correct. 

His comments are, unlike the ones that precede it, misleading. The five posts before that give a good overall summary of the current outlook.

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www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_228_1.png

Wouldn’t take a lot of adjustment to be fully zonal or continental airflow. Mild and wet for time being!

www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_228_1.png

Wouldn’t take a lot of adjustment to be fully zonal or continental airflow. Mild and wet for time being!

Up to day 9? Or after day 9?

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Up to day 9? Or after day 9?

before, on the day, and after😂

 

before, on the day, and after😂

Well not really before as the links which DEW has posted have shown. On the day and after is over 200hr out. I wouldn’t trust charts showing a blizzard then so am a little cautious trusting a milder outlook either. They could well be right but confidence (for me at least) is low beyond five or six days in any scenario (due to verification stats).

If it was a probability issue, which is probably the safest approach, I would say that based on current output milder than average conditions are more probable than average or colder than average in the 7 to 15 day period (with the usual caveat that confidence decreases as time increases).

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I have repeatedly made the point in recent weeks that autumn (and spring) often produces the most interesting synoptics for weather enthusiasts. In many cases winter is as dull as ditch water in the UK as a flat pattern becomes established across the Atlantic. Obviously it is the exception to the rule that keeps many of the snow (rather than weather) enthusiasts engaged during December, January and February. At the present time I remain open minded on the possibility that this winter could be one of those exceptions. 

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I’m sure snow enthusiasts can be weather enthusiasts too? Other forms of weather are fascinating, snow can be almost magical.

On the subject of snow...there’s no sign of it in the models (away from the hills).

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I’m sure snow enthusiasts can be weather enthusiasts too? Other forms of weather are fascinating, snow can be almost magical.

Posting on this forum would (and always has) suggest they are more or less mutually exclusive.

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Quite.

for all the talk of record high altitude stalling winds, the outlook remains utterly typical for the time of year. Perhaps a cold spell can take us by surprise but currently the next 2-3 weeks do not look below average. 

A very good point. Without prejudice I would be interested to hear Steve M's. latest view. I would add he is not the only person who has been flagging this up and it tallies with what some pundits on Twitter have been chirping. However, the GFS / GEFS and ECM32 have not and are not offering much support for a break to a colder pattern in the next 2 to 3 weeks. If anything the trend is towards milder conditions.

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Posting on this forum would (and always has) suggest they are more or less mutually exclusive.

No, it shows that people are more likely to discuss the potential of snow and not that they are not weather enthusiasts. 

Using this line of argument would suggest most weather enthusiasts actually prefer bickering over climate and political issues and not the weather.  

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There’s quite of bit of pressure on the top of the PV by an Eurasian warming at 10HPa - appearing late end of GFS now for a few days.
Whether this is linked to the significant reduction in the mean zonal vector and how it’s related to the disconnect remains to seen

 

 

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Amazing over recent years ,we get excellent synoptics in the Autumn months with Southerly tracking lows and high pressure over the Arctic regions,hence why it had been below normal temp wise and very cold over Scandinavia recently.

Then as we head closer to December it's like someone flips a switch and we revert to the usual Zonal mild dross with the Azores high in control.
Absolutely frustrating but UK has always had a rubbish climate in the winter if you enjoy cold and prolonged snow cover.

You be better adviced to book a holiday to parts of Canada to see a proper freeze up, guaranteed every year 😏

At least their not much hype in this forum during the winter months,the other forum .well....

 

Amazing over recent years ,we get excellent synoptics in the Autumn months with Southerly tracking lows and high pressure over the Arctic regions,hence why it had been below normal temp wise and very cold over Scandinavia recently.

Then as we head closer to December it's like someone flips a switch and we revert to the usual Zonal mild dross with the Azores high in control.
Absolutely frustrating but UK has always had a rubbish climate in the winter if you enjoy cold and prolonged snow cover.

You be better adviced to book a holiday to parts of Canada to see a proper freeze up, guaranteed every year 😏

At least their not much hype in this forum during the winter months,the other forum .well....

 

Yes I think expectations are very low this winter, I would think the challenge is to see if we will see the mildest winter ever and/or the mildest ever winter month.

 

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