Perhaps more of a challenge would be to discuss the current model output?

On that subject there look like being some chilly nights in the coming days in northern parts. Possibly the coldest of the autumn so far? Beyond then it still looks like a messy picture with temperatures trending more towards average or above and unsettled once again at times.

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Perhaps more of a challenge would be to discuss the current model output?

The thing that stands out for me on the 12z GFS is the real struggle the lows are having in moving east of the meridian - it's like there's an invisible wall there repelling them!

 

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Perhaps it’s just me, but I am ok with this 12z GFS run. It may just be my eyes but lows look like they are track a bit further south?

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The thing that stands out for me on the 12z GFS is the real struggle the lows are having in moving east of the meridian - it's like there's an invisible wall there repelling them!

 

Yes I have noticed that. It has been interesting to see that little low modelled to move up the North Sea from continental Europe this week. 

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Perhaps it’s just me, but I am ok with this 12z GFS run. It may just be my eyes but lows look like they are track a bit further south?

Yes, I've seen worse runs than this one.

As long as there is no notable rise in pressure over the Mediterranean, there is always a chance of something colder coming along at some later point IMO.

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Ensembles are out

21-28 November looks WET. Sine waves are back.

HOWEVER, things looks like settling back down.

There are some big dippers as well.

P15 was 🤮

As long as this pattern doesn’t lock in, I remain optimistic. We may have needed a bit of a reset, things had become stale recently

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Big spread developing in late Nov and early Dec. 

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There seems to be a fair number of posters on various forums looking to the strat again to deliver winter to our shores. The warmings around the surf zone are helping to slowly weaken and lower the zonal winds. In the extended range the warming looks to step up a gear with gfs runs now consistently showing this. It will be very interesting over the coming week or so to see how strong this warming and forcing becomes. It would be very early historically to have a full SSW in early December but not unheard of. This COULD be our ticket to a memorable winter but as we saw last year even with a full SSW and a split vortex it does not guarantee cold to our shore. Having said that a full blown warming is not always needed to produce the goods but the stronger the warming the more likely we would see a split rather than displacement and a stronger negative AO and NAO. Very early days yet though. 

 . 

Big spread developing in late Nov and early Dec. 

Interesting.

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Interesting.

The 18z throws up a similar pattern but with the Op amongst the coldest runs and everything from 2m values up to 15C or down to just 1-2C. Definitely a case of the mean being meaningless.

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The GFS 00z is a horror show towards the end.... high pressure over Europe with it’s centre on France producing a S to SW flow of very mild air.

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The GFS 00z is a horror show towards the end.... high pressure over Europe with it’s centre on France producing a S to SW flow of very mild air.

Agreed. Thankfully it’s right at the end and other runs in the pack go to the other extreme.

Its not a chart we want to see. I could be wrong but that is a Bartlett high if I ever saw one.

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GFS0z has this week's LP decaying as it moves off SE wards. For week 2 it has a series of Atlantic lows moving NW off Scotland and linking up with a depression off N Norway which could give Scotland some very cold air briefly. Then as Jim says, HP moves in from the south and looks well established by 3rd Dec - but it could easily be frost and fog rather than mild.

I don't entirely buy in to this scenario (a) it's quite different from yesterday, implying instability in the models (b) the jet stream continues to run first south of and then across the UK so I'd expect the current pattern of wet weather to continue 

ECM 0z has a similar pattern to the end of its run on the 24th.

GEFS confirms the instability with a wild scatter of temps after a brief burst of warmth on the 25th. Rain is general from the 23rd (a bit earlier in the SW) but again no agreement between the runs as to when and where.

 

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The GFS 00z is a horror show towards the end.... high pressure over Europe with it’s centre on France producing a S to SW flow of very mild air.

On the contrary, 15-17c in December would feel lovely. If we can't go cold, then early spring will do just fine. 

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On the contrary, 15-17c in December would feel lovely. If we can't go cold, then early spring will do just fine. 

It would be however it is one scenario from the ensembles and many of the other anticyclonic options are somewhat more seasonal 

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On the contrary, 15-17c in December would feel lovely. If we can't go cold, then early spring will do just fine. 

mooms I agree but I would add caution, there are a number of scenarios and “in between” options that may or may not occur, HP at this time of year can often lead to low level cold and fog no matter what the uppers say. 
however 17c would be toasty 🤣👍

 

The thing that stands out for me on the 12z GFS is the real struggle the lows are having in moving east of the meridian - it's like there's an invisible wall there repelling them!

 

That was already happening to a certain extent even when all of the flooding was taking place down south and because of that, I have forgotten the last time that we actually had any significant measurable rainfall here in Edinburgh as that was so long ago (over those bits of rainfall which have affected the east coast of Scotland have been too far east to affect us in any way).

The GFS in particular looks like carrying on that pattern and if that is the case, this month could well actually be on course to go down as our first drier than average month here since April, in terms of the actual rainfall amounts.

 

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On the contrary, 15-17c in December would feel lovely. If we can't go cold, then early spring will do just fine. 

I agree but down here that pattern usually gives us a heavy Autumnal gloom with mizzle and a perpetual temperature reflecting the sea temp.

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There is a long way to go but the latest stamps would lead me to go for a milder than average December. Things could change a lot several times before I even make a call so it is purely a snapshot view.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&charthour=384&chartname=ps_500hpa&chartregion=na-region&p=1&charttag=PS%20500hPa%20(GPDM)

 

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On the contrary, 15-17c in December would feel lovely. If we can't go cold, then early spring will do just fine. 

17C in December. Its a no from me.

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