Jetstream more fragmented for a while, but still mostly to the S of the UK, even at times next week diving down as far as the Med. GFS shows LP off the Atlantic following that line, though some old slack LP stays around the N Sea. Then a few days of HP (ca 24th) over the UK bridging the Azores and continental highs, before a major depression develops in the N Atlantic around the 27th (Wed) and moves over Norway with N/NE winds for us until the end of the run.
That's GFS; ECM doesn't pick up the HP around the 24th - instead the brief period of S winds is driven not by the Azores high but by yet another LP moving on a SE'ly track (yesterday's LP to the north which ECM was promoting has vanished)
Ens runs show temps scattered around the seasonal average despite the NE-ly spell referred to above, dry-ish until 21st-23rd when more general rainfall, particularly S and W; thereafter some rain distributed anywhere. Not much in he way of snow rows except for Inverness and that only as expected for late Nov.
Confused? So are the models.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl