👍Hence why the T144 ecm mean chart was posted earlier, also what happened to members looking at fax charts quite a few answers are hidden there.

 

Guys, the suppressed temperatures shown are due to a low level flow which has been tempered by the N sea. This will promote a damp, humid surface environment, precluding the usual warming through surface heating.

Once the flow veers more S of E you'll see temperatures rocket.

 That is substantially higher than what the GFS is predicting though (a model which has temperatures modelled several degrees too low today, for example). The automated Met Office temperatures for Sheffield haven't changed a great deal for midweek either, with Friday 'only' showing 25C despite sunny skies forecast.

Human input has clearly influenced their recent tweet and suggests the models are not handling the situation all that well when it comes to the maximum temperatures.

I'm not saying mid 30s are going to happen, but it seems far more likely we'll get close to those figures rather than the 19-21C midweek figures.

'Mid-30s are possible' is not a forecast of mid-30s.

 

 

'Mid-30s are possible' is not a forecast of mid-30s.

 

 

Their forecast does actually say 33c Tuesday 34c Wednesday though on their animated tweet. the text says mid 30s possible which would suggest 35c.

 

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'Mid-30s are possible' is not a forecast of mid-30s.

 

It's why I said "I'm not saying mid 30s are going to happen" nor do I believe the Met Office are specifically forecasting these dizzlingly high temperatures as a given - more what they could reach if the setup plays out like they think it might.

What I am saying is that that tweet, the accompanying graphic especially, will have had substantial human input to account for the extreme potential. Something that the models have toyed with on various runs but find difficult to resolve, due to a number of factors that have been mentioned and discussed through much of this thread 

A complex and ever-evolving situation like this is always difficult for computer models as they overdo/underdo certain parameters. It's a fun discussion but a futile one really, discussing temperature forecasts 5 days away!

 

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 It's why I said "I'm not saying mid 30s are going to happen" nor do I believe the Met Office are specifically forecasting these dizzlingly high temperatures as a given - more what they could reach if the setup plays out like they think it might.

What I am saying is that that tweet, the accompanying graphic especially, will have had substantial human input to account for the extreme potential. Something that the models have toyed with on various runs but find difficult to resolve, due to a number of factors that have been mentioned and discussed through much of this thread 

A complex and ever-evolving situation like this is always difficult for computer models as they overdo/underdo certain parameters. It's a fun discussion but a futile one really, discussing temperature forecasts 5 days away!

 

I don't really follow the Met office forecasts, but I think you'll find it's more likely that someone got excited and wanted to tweet a ramp. Plenty of weather geeks there too and always room for some buzz too 

Anyway, these charts show how unusual this setup could end up being for mid-week, 950 hPa wind showing the strong low level flow off the cold N.Sea and more than 10C delta between dew points in SE England and N.France

And heat index values of 48C in N.France, but only lows 20s in SE England.

Can’t follow that link Brian!

The link in my original post should now work. 

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Aye could be fun dont like the bit for night and sleeping

AD viddy

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2019/hot-spell

 

Very Hot

Very High Humidity

Violent storms

High wind gusts

Giant hail stones

 

 

 

 

Their forecast does actually say 33c Tuesday 34c Wednesday though on their animated tweet. the text says mid 30s possible which would suggest 35c.

 

 Their forecast does actually say 33c Tuesday 34c Wednesday though on their animated tweet. the text says mid 30s possible which would suggest 35c.

 

Fair enough, I think they are wrong to have such a graphic at this stage.

 

Not sure if this will help or hinder the debate, but worth a watch:

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The link in my original post should now work. 

  Yep. It does!

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Their forecast does actually say 33c Tuesday 34c Wednesday though on their animated tweet. the text says mid 30s possible which would suggest 35c.

 

Mid thirties could be 33-37.

When you look at that Ben and then compare gfs Surface T across the set that is some cold bias from gfs I mean it’s tomorrow and Monday miles out.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0

 

Not sure if this will help or hinder the debate, but worth a watch:
https://youtu.be/8yOI2gwuPPo

When you look at that Ben and then compare gfs Surface T across the set that is some cold bias from gfs I mean it’s tomorrow and Monday miles out.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0

 

 

The new GFS cold bias had been mentioned prior to implementation I believe PL!  

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Looks like a Heat Low making a break for it toward SW England and Ireland on ECM:

Glasto could be interesting on Friday...

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The ECM 168 looks like one of those archive charts posted on a KevBrads thread about the record heatwave of 2019.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_168_2.png 

“June 2019 started warm and sunny, but most of the month was more noted for cool cyclonic conditions, cloud and copious rainfall particularly in the East Midlands. The short but record breaking heatwave at the end of the month took everyone by surprise.... but it wasn’t to last. By early July the pattern that was to dominate that soggy summer reasserted itself. See the TWO forum thread on the floods of July 2019 for more details.”

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The alternative ending goes “the June spell proved a suitable warm up act for what was to come later in that record smashing July and August”.

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These are the raw max temps (usually ~2C too low) for London from the 12z ECM:

Mon 25, Tue 24C, Wed 22C, Thu 23C, Fri 24C, Sat 32C.

The West country is obviously warmer than the SE for Wed-Fri, but the real heat stays mostly south of Paris. Darren would be please as it'd be even cooler and fresher around his place.

Still not over though.

 

ECM finishing nice and clean again.

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ECM finishing nice and clean again.

Yes, seems to back up what the MetO outlooks have been saying - messy breakdown from plume, with a cleaner HP moving up from the Azores.

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