ECM holds on to the hot plume for a day or two longer.

 

Meanwhile the GFS Control offers a reboot later on, along with a few other ENS members:

---

I wonder if the rainfall preceding this spell tonight and tomorrow could be being factored in.

To see 850s so high and not translating to record temperatures is hard to stomach.

I am not even the country next week; but want it to happen for everyone here

---

To have 850s so high and 2m temps so low is  very unusual I've certainly never seen anything like this.  Has it ever happened before?

 

 

I can't recall it happening to this extent in the era of internet model watching but it happens in California all the time.  This week is complex and a slight shift in wind direction could be the difference between 23c and 35c.  

---

I can't recall it happening to this extent in the era of internet model watching but it happens in California all the time.  This week is complex and a slight shift in wind direction could be the difference between 23c and 35c.  

It's all about that North Sea-generated boundary layer. There's already a layer of moist air coming in from the sea and I bumped into it several times today driving from Reading to Leysdown - in Surrey it's around 600ft up, but in Kent it's as low as 100ft. I knew I'd hit it as I'd be driving along and - poof - the windscreen and wing mirrors would instantly fog up. Not nice and it required turning the blowers on and off as I went up and down hills!

The models will have to get a grip on the extent, height and depth of this layer and even tiny changes will, as you say, mean a 10 degree (or more) difference in ground temperatures.

As I said before, it's all very reminiscent of a winter easterly, just with warmth being the uncertainty rather than cold!

---

 

I can't recall it happening to this extent in the era of internet model watching but it happens in California all the time.  This week is complex and a slight shift in wind direction could be the difference between 23c and 35c.  

 

It's definitely frustrating be interesting to see what the Met Office tweet today. 

---

 

It's all about that North Sea-generated boundary layer. There's already a layer of moist air coming in from the sea and I bumped into it several times today driving from Reading to Leysdown - in Surrey it's around 600ft up, but in Kent it's as low as 100ft. I knew I'd hit it as I'd be driving along and - poof - the windscreen and wing mirrors would instantly fog up. Not nice and it required turning the blowers on and off as I went up and down hills!

The models will have to get a grip on the extent, height and depth of this layer and even tiny changes will, as you say, mean a 10 degree (or more) difference in ground temperatures.

As I said before, it's all very reminiscent of a winter easterly, just with warmth being the uncertainty rather than cold!

It could be that western parts of the county end up being hottest - think west of the Pennines and NW Wales. 

---

I can only relate to it having -20 into the s/e with sleet on the Chilterns.

 

 

To have 850s so high and 2m temps so low is  very unusual I've certainly never seen anything like this.  Has it ever happened before?

 Can all the models be wrong on 2m temps seems unlikely, but the Met Office tweet would seem to suggest they are wrong. Fascinating, bizarre, unique and very frustrating output. 

 

I can only relate to it having -20 into the s/e with sleet on the Chilterns.

 

 

 

 

I think we can count ourselves Incredibly unlucky the orientation of the high is such that record breaking 850s produce such ordinary 2m temps. Just look at France  42c forecast. 

---

Just some thoughts about the modelled heat build up in France; this is just 10am Wednesday: Moulins area on the Allier River (tributary of the upper Loire) already 37°C at 10am!!! (according to the Arpege)

---

 

It could be that western parts of the county end up being hottest - think west of the Pennines and NW Wales. 

Yup, if you can mix out that boundary layer (as being forced over mountains / large hills could do) then the potential is pretty extreme - as can be seen by the effects to our east, before that boundary layer gets added.

Whilst I'm happy enough to see it (as it's insulating us from the worst of the heat) I can see how frustrating it must be for the heat fans!

At present, Saturday looks like being the day when the North Sea's influence declines, but whether there's enough time for the heat to build to noteworthy levels before the plume gets shunted eastwards remains to be seen.

---

ICON EU 6z doesn't look noteworthy for the UK either.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/icon.aspx?run=06&charthour=9&chartname=uk2mtmp&chartregion=uk&charttag=2m%20max%20temp%20 (C)

GFS 06z also only reaches 30C next Sat.

---

Just some thoughts about the modelled heat build up in France; this is just 10am Wednesday: Moulins area on the Allier River (tributary of the upper Loire) already 37°C at 10am!!! (according to the Arpege)

Yes, it’s both exciting and disconcerting. The heat is widespread but looks like the hottest spots are likely to be the Northern Auvergne / Eastern Loire valley (sites like Vichy, Saint Yan, Roanne), Paris because of the heat island, and the usual southern Rhône stations like Carpentras and Orange.

Some mind boggling 8-daters from weatheronline below:

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/city?LANG=en&CEL=C&SI=mph&CONT=euro&LAND=FR&REGION=0003&WMO=07586&LEVEL=52&R=0&NOREGION=1

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/city?LANG=en&CEL=C&SI=mph&CONT=euro&LAND=FR&REGION=0003&WMO=07374&LEVEL=52&R=0&NOREGION=1

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/city?LANG=en&CEL=C&SI=mph&CONT=euro&LAND=FR&REGION=0003&WMO=07149&LEVEL=52&R=0&NOREGION=1

 

---

All eyes on the reload now. This run gives us a dry breakdown, warm sunshine and an AH looking keen to assert itself. Would be a great end to a rather meh heatwave.

---

All eyes on the reload now. This run gives us a dry breakdown, warm sunshine and an AH looking keen to assert itself. Would be a great end to a rather meh heatwave.

If the Azores High does reload and build in again after next weekend as is being suggested by some runs, then the "real deal" heatwave may come in early July rather than this coming week. What is being suggested in some GFS and ECM op runs for early July is IMO reminiscent of the way in which the Azores High built in strongly in the final week of June last year and then gave us that fantastic spell which lasted until well into July.

---

If the Azores High does reload and build in again after next weekend as is being suggested by some runs, then the "real deal" heatwave may come in early July rather than this coming week.

That's a very big if. Certainly no great sign of any noteably warm conditions in early July - aloft or at the surface - in the ECM ensembles, at least down here.

https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro

As the early July average is 22C for London, the ensembles are painting a thoroughly average picture. There remain, of course, the odd warm or hot members mixed in.

Another view of them:

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-tt6-london.gif

However, as we all know ensemble suites are prone to change wholesale as new signals are picked up. It remains to be seen what happens next week!

---

Comment from the Met here

https://twitter.com/Petagna/status/1142740625177174016?s=19 

---

posters especially on other forum exsessively over complicating and muddying waters when it comes to temperatures this coming week. Quite confident if  850 temperatures across England and wales hit 20c during second half of week and we have strong sunshine then 2m temperatures will respond, 93 to 95f quite widespread I would imagine. 

Comment from the Met here

https://twitter.com/Petagna/status/1142740625177174016?s=19

Helpful Brian; just doesn't sit well with me that cold N Sea could hold back temperatures so much with such upper air temps, thicknesses and likely advection from a roasting near continent. Easterlies in early July 83 would have been across a cool N Sea, as the spring was cold. I note the Tweet boldly stands aside from other models. It was early this morning though; I don't have access to Twitter so any further Tweets you post will be of great interest.

---

slight ecm mean upgrade on very high uk 850,s longevity lasting into the weekend now.

 

Good usable summery conditions from the mean as we head into July

posters especially on other forum exsessively over complicating and muddying waters when it comes to temperatures this coming week. Quite confident if  850 temperatures across England and wales hit 20c during second half of week and we have strong sunshine then 2m temperatures will respond, 93 to 95f quite widespread I would imagine. 

Hmm, you mean on Netweather? They're not overcomplicating things, they're just going into more detail on the reasons the models aren't showing super-high maximum temperatures despite the 850s.

It's worth mentioning that both GEFS and EPS are showing the same lack of surface response, although as I've said before (and I'll say again), anywhere that sees the boundary layer get mixed out will see high temperatures. That's currently most likely to happen at the tail end of next week, but don't be surprised to see things changing as the runs keep coming.

 

---