Angus Reid

Con 31% Lab 42% Lib-Dem 11% OTR 16% Lab Lead 11%

YouGov/NI

Con 36% Lab 42% Lib-Dem 10% OTR 12% Lab Lead 6%

Populus/Times

Con 36% Lab 40% Lib-Dem 11% Lab Lead 4%

ComRes/IoS/S. Mirror

Con 35% Lab 39% Lib-Dem 10% OTR 16% Lab Lead 4%

ICM/Guardian

Con 35% (-2) Lab 37% (+1) Lib-Dem 15% (-1) OTR 13% (+2) Lab Lead 2%

Rather surprising news from the ever volatile MORI:

Con 40% (+3) Lab 40% (-1) Lib-Dem 9% (-1) TIE

Scottish Constituency Poll:

SNP 45% (+8), Lab 34 (-2), Con 10(-3), LD 9 (-1).

List:

SNP 42 (+7), Lab 32 (-1), Con 10 (-3), LD 8 (-2), Oth 8

Scottish Constituency Poll:

SNP 45% (+8), Lab 34 (-2), Con 10(-3), LD 9 (-1).

List:

SNP 42 (+7), Lab 32 (-1), Con 10 (-3), LD 8 (-2), Oth 8

Good Heavens - remarkable figures for the SNP. Only a few weeks ago, Labour were talking confidently of forming the next Scottish Executive in partnership with the Scottish LDs.

If these polls prove correct, something has gone dramatically wrong for Labour north of the border - perhaps you might enlighten us southerners on what that may be HH.

If these polls prove correct, something has gone dramatically wrong for Labour north of the border

I'd guess it's a combination of:

1) as Labour have continued with essentially centre-right policies, more and more people who are to the left of centre are abandoning them. In Scotland, they have a leftist outlet in the SNP

2) a party that broadly has an antipathy toward Westminster will fight the Scottish corner harder

3) the SNP have done a pretty decent job of 'government' at the SP

I think Labour has underestimated factor 3 on Saint's list badly. Also Ian Gray is a non-entity compared to Alex Salmond and I think people are genuinely looking at the options and far more are concluding that in difficult times, they see Alex Salmond as First Minister material and not Ian Gray.

The other factor is a growing disconnect between Westminster and Scottish Parliament elections. I think Labour had unrealistically high expectations based on last May and Opinion Polls earlier in the year may have reflected the fact that people weren't as focused on the Scottish Parliament as they will be with the election looming - possibly giving Labour higher ratings at that time? 

Also where is the Labour campaign? Anyone seen Ian Gray recently? Locally a number of popular Lib Dem incumbents have stood down - making it much easier for the SNP to make headway in these seats - the Highland mainland seats are reportedly too close to call between the SNP and the Lib Dems.

Putting that Times poll into the ScotlandVotes.com website saw the country turn a sea of yellow, it projects the SNP to win 66 Seats.

Could the SNP and Alex Salmond be on course for majority government? Perhaps one of the ironies is that being a minority government having to work construcitvely in Parliament for the past 4 years has benefitied the SNP this time round - in that providing stable minority government requires you don't piss too many folk off?

A Times poll puts the SNP on course for majority government just 2 weeks out from the election, and the Glasgow based BBC Scotland  fails to even mention it on it's Scotland News Pages:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/scotland/

British (Labour) Broadcasting Corporation (Red Clydside Division) ?

I hope the SNP win outright in 2 weeks time.

I hope the SNP win outright in 2 weeks time.

They're more left wing than Labour Duane

Clearly some poor polls numbers for Ed. The Tories are still doing very well in spite of all the mistakes they have made. I suppose they are less than a year into parliament so voters are still willing to give them a chance and of course with the slavish support of most of the media, they have won the cuts argument (blaming it all on benefit "Sroungers"etc)

I hope the SNP win outright in 2 weeks time.

They're more left wing than Labour Duane

Yeah I know but I would love Labour to get a good kicking up there.

I hope the SNP win outright in 2 weeks time.

Me too

Two new voting intention polls:

ComRes/Independent

Con 34% Lab 37% Lib-Dem 15% OTR 14% Lab Lead 3%

YouGov/NI

Con 37% Lab 42% Lib-Dem 10% OTR 11% Lab Lead 5%

Is there a thread to discuss the other elections on Thursday apart from the referendum? There could be some interest in these, especially for Scotland. A poll tonight suggests a huge win for the SNP.

Why don't you start a thread for the local and devolved government elections.

Just started watching the Scottish leaders debate on the STV website and just about fell off my seat at the opinion poll results at the start!

SNP 45%
Labour 27%
Con 15%

Lib Dem 10%

Regional:

SNP 38%
Labour 25%
Conservative 16%

Lib Dem 9%
Green 8%

ICM/Guardian

Con 36% (+1) Lab 37% (n/c) Lib-Dem 15% (-n/c) Lab Lead 1% 

ICM/Guardian

Con 36% (+1) Lab 37% (n/c) Lib-Dem 15% (-n/c) Lab Lead 1% 

One year in, those numbers for Labour are poor. Nothing can hide that; "(R)Ed" needs to start doing something (differently) to address this under-achievement, and soon.