YouGov/News International

Con 36% Lab 40% Lib-Dem 11% OTR 13% Lab Lead 4%

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ICM/Guardian

Con 36% (+1) Lab 37% (n/c) Lib-Dem 15% (-n/c) Lab Lead 1% 

One year in, those numbers for Labour are poor.

Good lad, at least you're honest! Adenoid Ed is calling the Drs in to help with his predicament. IMO his (and your) best hope is for Bowser and Ulric to be proven right with their views on the economy.

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Why don't you start a thread for the local and devolved government elections.

 

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"Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 38%, LAB 42%, LDEM 8%. This is the lowest score YouGov have recorded for the Liberal Democrats since the end of January."

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/3562

Ouch!

 

Edit : fine picture from detailed numbers:-

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/yg-archives-pol-sun-results-090511.pdf

Some of the LD numbers are astoundingly poor...just 22% of 2010 LD voters approve of Govt.'s record to date.....22%

Populus/Times

Con 37% Lab 39% Lib-Dem 11% Lab Lead 2%

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"Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 38%, LAB 42%, LDEM 8%. This is the lowest score YouGov have recorded for the Liberal Democrats since the end of January."

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/3562

Ouch!

 

Edit : fine picture from detailed numbers:-

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/yg-archives-pol-sun-results-090511.pdf

Some of the LD numbers are astoundingly poor...just 22% of 2010 LD voters approve of Govt.'s record to date.....22%

All of which is paradoxically good for the survival of the Coalition for another couple of years at least.

I just wish people would grow up and understand the reality of our fiscal position however - cuts are unavoidable - we would be having cuts under a Labour majority government too - the difference in the current fiscal position and that proposed by Alastair Darling prior to the election, amounts to as little as 2 billion per annum!

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http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/yg-archives-pol-sun-results-090511.pdf

Some of the LD numbers are astoundingly poor...just 22% of 2010 LD voters approve of Govt.'s record to date.....22%

 

Amazing numbers indeed, showing that the coalition government is perceived as right wing and also explaining (together with the split labour vote) the very poor result in the AV referendum.

I've started feeling sorry for the LDs, but perhaps it's the left of centre voters I should be feeling sorry for. The collapse of the LD vote will mainly benefit the Tories electorally as with the help of the FPTP system  they will dominate in the south and pick up quite a few seats from the LDs.

A majority Con government looks more and more likely IMO after the next election and that with Scotland still in the Union...

I don't know how much of it was luck and how much skill, but the right wingers should recognise that Cameron has been a very smooth operator.

 

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/yg-archives-pol-sun-results-090511.pdf

Some of the LD numbers are astoundingly poor...just 22% of 2010 LD voters approve of Govt.'s record to date.....22%

 

Amazing numbers indeed, showing that the coalition government is perceived as right wing and also explaining (together with the split labour vote) the very poor result in the AV referendum.

I've started feeling sorry for the LDs, but perhaps it's the left of centre voters I should be feeling sorry for. The collapse of the LD vote will mainly benefit the Tories electorally as with the help of the FPTP system  they will dominate in the south and pick up quite a few seats from the LDs.

A majority Con government looks more and more likely IMO after the next election and that with Scotland still in the Union...

I don't know how much of it was luck and how much skill, but the right wingers should recognise that Cameron has been a very smooth operator.

It's possible, but the real votes on Thurday showed a LD vote of double that opinion poll rating - 15%. I prefer votes to opinion polls.

I think it's also possible the LD vote has reached a low point, even if they get just 15% at the next election (and the other two parties votes don't change) we're still, afaics, in hung parliament territory. Anything less than 40% has to be bad news for the Tories - and they're failed to get near to that.

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http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/yg-archives-pol-sun-results-090511.pdf

Some of the LD numbers are astoundingly poor...just 22% of 2010 LD voters approve of Govt.'s record to date.....22%

 

Amazing numbers indeed, showing that the coalition government is perceived as right wing and also explaining (together with the split labour vote) the very poor result in the AV referendum.

I've started feeling sorry for the LDs, but perhaps it's the left of centre voters I should be feeling sorry for. The collapse of the LD vote will mainly benefit the Tories electorally as with the help of the FPTP system  they will dominate in the south and pick up quite a few seats from the LDs.

A majority Con government looks more and more likely IMO after the next election and that with Scotland still in the Union...

I don't know how much of it was luck and how much skill, but the right wingers should recognise that Cameron has been a very smooth operator.

It's possible, but the real votes on Thurday showed a LD vote of double that opinion poll rating - 15%. I prefer votes to opinion polls.

I think it's also possible the LD vote has reached a low point, even if they get just 15% at the next election (and the other two parties votes don't change) we're still, afaics, in hung parliament territory. Anything less than 40% has to be bad news for the Tories - and they're failed to get near to that.

They won't need 40% once they've finished gerrymandering the boundaries, I'm afraid Peter.

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They won't need 40% once they've finished gerrymandering the boundaries, I'm afraid Peter.

It is not "gerrymandering", it is resolving the present unfair imbalance in favour of Labour - even the LDs agree with that.

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http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/yg-archives-pol-sun-results-090511.pdf

Some of the LD numbers are astoundingly poor...just 22% of 2010 LD voters approve of Govt.'s record to date.....22%

 

Amazing numbers indeed, showing that the coalition government is perceived as right wing and also explaining (together with the split labour vote) the very poor result in the AV referendum.

I've started feeling sorry for the LDs, but perhaps it's the left of centre voters I should be feeling sorry for. The collapse of the LD vote will mainly benefit the Tories electorally as with the help of the FPTP system  they will dominate in the south and pick up quite a few seats from the LDs.

A majority Con government looks more and more likely IMO after the next election and that with Scotland still in the Union...

I don't know how much of it was luck and how much skill, but the right wingers should recognise that Cameron has been a very smooth operator.

It's possible, but the real votes on Thurday showed a LD vote of double that opinion poll rating - 15%. I prefer votes to opinion polls.

I think it's also possible the LD vote has reached a low point, even if they get just 15% at the next election (and the other two parties votes don't change) we're still, afaics, in hung parliament territory. Anything less than 40% has to be bad news for the Tories - and they're failed to get near to that.

They won't need 40% once they've finished gerrymandering the boundaries, I'm afraid Peter.

Possibly, but I find it hard to see how equalising constiuency populations is gerrmandering (esp as gerrymandering is, I believe, about how you draw boundaries so as to concentrate your vote a one constituency for political advantage, not about constituency populations being equlaised by an independent commission). Indeed, I'd argue it's dodgy to say people in certin parts of the country should get more MP's per unit population than others - as we have atm. Anyway, we had a chance to change how we elect or politicians and the country decisively rejected that chance (as both main parties consitently have). We're unlikely to be asked again.

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http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/yg-archives-pol-sun-results-090511.pdf

Some of the LD numbers are astoundingly poor...just 22% of 2010 LD voters approve of Govt.'s record to date.....22%

 

Amazing numbers indeed, showing that the coalition government is perceived as right wing and also explaining (together with the split labour vote) the very poor result in the AV referendum.

I've started feeling sorry for the LDs, but perhaps it's the left of centre voters I should be feeling sorry for. The collapse of the LD vote will mainly benefit the Tories electorally as with the help of the FPTP system  they will dominate in the south and pick up quite a few seats from the LDs.

A majority Con government looks more and more likely IMO after the next election and that with Scotland still in the Union...

I don't know how much of it was luck and how much skill, but the right wingers should recognise that Cameron has been a very smooth operator.

I don't doubt that he is. Him and Osbone clearly have a plan and it is working and on course to win the next GE outright.

---

 

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/yg-archives-pol-sun-results-090511.pdf

Some of the LD numbers are astoundingly poor...just 22% of 2010 LD voters approve of Govt.'s record to date.....22%

 

Amazing numbers indeed, showing that the coalition government is perceived as right wing and also explaining (together with the split labour vote) the very poor result in the AV referendum.

I've started feeling sorry for the LDs, but perhaps it's the left of centre voters I should be feeling sorry for. The collapse of the LD vote will mainly benefit the Tories electorally as with the help of the FPTP system  they will dominate in the south and pick up quite a few seats from the LDs.

A majority Con government looks more and more likely IMO after the next election and that with Scotland still in the Union...

I don't know how much of it was luck and how much skill, but the right wingers should recognise that Cameron has been a very smooth operator.

It's possible, but the real votes on Thurday showed a LD vote of double that opinion poll rating - 15%. I prefer votes to opinion polls.

I think it's also possible the LD vote has reached a low point, even if they get just 15% at the next election (and the other two parties votes don't change) we're still, afaics, in hung parliament territory. Anything less than 40% has to be bad news for the Tories - and they're failed to get near to that.

Correct if I'm wrong, but doesn't that 15% LD share of the popular vote relate to the English council elections only? That's a platform where the LDs have traditionally done well; the popular votes in devolved bodies were far lower with Scotland at around 6% and Wales 9%.

So the YouGov number may be an outlier and a tad harsh, but its possible to see that in the traditional 'if there were a GE tomorrow.." type polling 8% may not be far off the mark?

 

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/yg-archives-pol-sun-results-090511.pdf

Some of the LD numbers are astoundingly poor...just 22% of 2010 LD voters approve of Govt.'s record to date.....22%

 

Amazing numbers indeed, showing that the coalition government is perceived as right wing and also explaining (together with the split labour vote) the very poor result in the AV referendum.

I've started feeling sorry for the LDs, but perhaps it's the left of centre voters I should be feeling sorry for. The collapse of the LD vote will mainly benefit the Tories electorally as with the help of the FPTP system  they will dominate in the south and pick up quite a few seats from the LDs.

A majority Con government looks more and more likely IMO after the next election and that with Scotland still in the Union...

I don't know how much of it was luck and how much skill, but the right wingers should recognise that Cameron has been a very smooth operator.

I don't doubt that he is. Him and Osbone clearly have a plan and it is working and on course to win the next GE outright.

Whilst I'd love to agree with you, I think that is a tad premature - a lot can happen in the next four years.

The Scots could vote for independence (or not as the case may be), the Boundaries Commission has to do its work - that will not be completed apparently until 2013 at the very earliest and we have economic problems, commodity price spikes and foreign adventures to deal with.

In short, the outcome of the next GE in 2015 is anybody's guess, regardless that Cameron is lord and master of all he surveys at the moment.

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Correct if I'm wrong, but doesn't that 15% LD share of the popular vote relate to the English council elections only? That's a platform where the LDs have traditionally done well; the popular votes in devolved bodies were far lower with Scotland at around 6% and Wales 9%.

So the YouGov number may be an outlier and a tad harsh, but its possible to see that in the traditional 'if there were a GE tomorrow.." type polling 8% may not be far off the mark?

Could be, just numbers I remember from the TV coverage and this PC is too slow to spend time drilling down in the BBC site...

Otoh, people keep arguing that the Scottish/Welsh votes will be very different come a GE.

Whatever, I don't think the UK yet 'wants' (40%...) a Conservative Govt, England might the UK probably not, we'll see come the next election, imo that's still a long way off.

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I'm coming round to the idea that it may be in both Labour and the lib dems interests to force an early election prior to the changes. Also the economy will be picking up by 2015 and the Tories will claim the credit even though the financial meltdown was avoided by the decisive and heroic actions of Gordon (Maunder mouth foaming moment).

If the libs find some cojones and pull the plug on the toffs we could have an election next year and labour could form a coalition with the lib dems with the promise of a PR referendum. They may even win outright

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I'm coming round to the idea that it may be in both Labour and the lib dems interests to force an early election prior to the changes. Also the economy will be picking up by 2015 and the Tories will claim the credit even though the financial meltdown was avoided by the decisive and heroic actions of Gordon (Maunder mouth foaming moment). If the libs find some cojones and pull the plug on the toffs we could have an election next year and labour could form a coalition with the lib dems with the promise of a PR referendum. They may even win outright

So we have the toffs, the nasty party. How utterly depressing that people need to sink to this level.

I do hope that your comment about heroic Gordon was a joke. And as far as I'm aware financial meltdown DID occur.

Funny how the Tories claiming credit for a theoretical recovery in 2015 would be down to Brown and Darling in 2009 yet the original crisis has nothing to do with Brown and Darling's stewardship for the preceding six years?

Labour needs time in opposition. It was tired, and senior figures admitted as much after the election. Naturally you want them back, but objectively are they ready to be rehabilitated?

 

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I'm coming round to the idea that it may be in both Labour and the lib dems interests to force an early election prior to the changes. Also the economy will be picking up by 2015 and the Tories will claim the credit even though the financial meltdown was avoided by the decisive and heroic actions of Gordon (Maunder mouth foaming moment). If the libs find some cojones and pull the plug on the toffs we could have an election next year and labour could form a coalition with the lib dems with the promise of a PR referendum. They may even win outright

So we have the toffs, the nasty party. How utterly depressing that people need to sink to this level.

I do hope that your comment about heroic Gordon was a joke. And as far as I'm aware financial meltdown DID occur.

Funny how the Tories claiming credit for a theoretical recovery in 2015 would be down to Brown and Darling in 2009 yet the original crisis has nothing to do with Brown and Darling's stewardship for the preceding six years?

Labour needs time in opposition. It was tired, and senior figures admitted as much after the election. Naturally you want them back, but objectively are they ready to be rehabilitated?

 

 

All that, plus......

Do we really need yet another referendum on  electoral reform??  We have only just had one and  the notion was  given a "good  kicking" (and for the record I voted for  AV)

I'm no great fan of the Tories, but  with the current precarious state of the economy, I shudder at the thought of a Lib Lab pact unleashing another round of profligacy

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I'm coming round to the idea that it may be in both Labour and the lib dems interests to force an early election prior to the changes. Also the economy will be picking up by 2015 and the Tories will claim the credit even though the financial meltdown was avoided by the decisive and heroic actions of Gordon (Maunder mouth foaming moment). If the libs find some cojones and pull the plug on the toffs we could have an election next year and labour could form a coalition with the lib dems with the promise of a PR referendum. They may even win outright

So we have the toffs, the nasty party. How utterly depressing that people need to sink to this level.

I do hope that your comment about heroic Gordon was a joke. And as far as I'm aware financial meltdown DID occur.

Funny how the Tories claiming credit for a theoretical recovery in 2015 would be down to Brown and Darling in 2009 yet the original crisis has nothing to do with Brown and Darling's stewardship for the preceding six years?

Labour needs time in opposition. It was tired, and senior figures admitted as much after the election. Naturally you want them back, but objectively are they ready to be rehabilitated?

 

Simon you just don't get in do you, the Tories are to blame for everything even for the last 13 years of a Labour goverment so says Beast........

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They won't need 40% once they've finished gerrymandering the boundaries, I'm afraid Peter.

It is not "gerrymandering", it is resolving the present unfair imbalance in favour of Labour - even the LDs agree with that.

Saint has pointed out several times how and why that is wrong, MM. The fact you simply ignore him every time and continue to spout this nonsense is shameful.

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