Well Exeter have not adjusted their text as yet, probably waiting for the 12z/0z runs before commiting to a dramatic volte face.

 

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Well Exeter have not adjusted their text as yet, probably waiting for the 12z/0z runs before commiting to a dramatic volte face.

 

Errrrm, yes they have - see media thread. 

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You can see quite clearly how zonality has returned and we have a run of mild weather ahead..... 

Honestly, this place can be extraordinary when there's cold weather in the offing.

 

 

You might get your politics wrong in UIA ( 😉 ) but your posts in here are always spot on.

Thank the stars for posters like you, Doc, Neil, Darren and the other level-headed, knowledgeable regulars.

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Well Exeter have not adjusted their text as yet, probably waiting for the 12z/0z runs before commiting to a dramatic volte face.

 

they have changed the text and continued cold theme overall. Models continue to give us plenty of cold options that match the updated forecast. Very interesting looking into that longer term block at end of the month.

Martin

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It's 12 days away - if the GFS 6z/ECM runs are right we have a zonal +ve NAO pattern coming well before then and good luck if you think that will shift to what is shown on that chart for Jan 31 by then.

Ah, but you have said the same thing several times this winter and been proved wrong.

You know that the NAO is a function of the model output. A positive NAO can mean many things and certainly doesn't guarantee zonality, in the same way that a negative NAO doesn't guarantee cold weather.

I know that you'll be right eventually but that doesn't count as measured analysis of the charts. In the meantime good luck with your latest assertion of a return to zonality.

 

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Differences or what!? 

GEM MIDDAY on Tuesday snow depth and compare this with the Para:

 

Para midday Tuesday:

 

 

I really doubt there will be any lying snow from the northwesterly for merseyside, so im leaning towards the GEM.

 

There might be temp lying coats of hail.  But thats it.   Might take a drive into wales to see any snow.. as is usually the case.

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Navgem 6z is worth a look if you need bouying up.

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Navgem 6z is worth a look if you need bouying up.

They're all mugging us off Phil 

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You might get your politics wrong in UIA ( 😉 ) but your posts in here are always spot on.

Thank the stars for posters like you, Doc, Neil, Darren and the other level-headed, knowledgeable regulars.

Indeed!

 A lot of posts that creep in at times when models are appearing to flip one way and then back another 24 hours later, belong in a French farce not a sensible discussion......

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The overall trend for the next week remains below average with the exception of Shetland where it looks to be marginally above average

Something a bit milder in the north by D7?

 

The problem is the bumps in the road only appear at very short distances. 

The only bump in the road I can see in the ECM ensemble being discussed here is the one single day that the mean edges above 5C for London (it hits 6C for that one day in a week's time - hardly a very short distance away or even nailed on). Even on that day there are a few members giving ice days.

To me that ensemble looks like we've entered a cold spell with no end in sight, and one that will be getting colder still the further we get into winter.

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Going off the ever changing MetO updates a cold/very cold outlook remains the form horse but the troughing which had been forecast dropping to our East apppears to be further east than previously modelled.

I would say that we’re looking at heights being near to us throughout the extended period bringing mostly dry frosty conditions but little in the way of precipitation. That’s my best guesstimate anyhow.

The issue is the 🇺🇸 storm creating amplification in the jet. With the models in the US still adjusting the path of the storm early initialisation errors would be quite high at the moment

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The issue is the 🇺🇸 storm creating amplification in the jet. With the models in the US still adjusting the path of the storm early initialisation errors would be quite high at the moment

Comparing GFS 06hrs with current position (centre far W Tennessee), the system looks like tracking west of the modelled path which may have implications once it enters the ocean in two days.

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Just for these people that think UK climate is bad think how I feel having booked holiday to Courmayeur Italy. Southern Alps have been starved of any snow this winter and earlier there were suggestions of a major dump of snow but latest runs will change all that. Mid February not long time to go and this will probably be a record.

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AO & NAO (MOST OF) going into negative territory now! - maybe a couple +positive runs but they are outliers.

Do you think that chart was based on our 00z run and not 06z run?

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The overall trend for the next week remains below average with the exception of Shetland where it looks to be marginally above average

Something a bit milder in the north by D7?

yes this was backed up by the BBC forecast for next week at lunchtime, though they stressed it would just be cold rather than talking up the possible snow fest like they did yesterday. 

We have to be realistic, the cold will find any way it can to avoid these islands at winter time- we should know this from bitter experience 

 

Comparing GFS 06hrs with current position (centre far W Tennessee), the system looks like tracking west of the modelled path which may have implications once it enters the ocean in two days.

yes I’ve been looking at this too and any possible amplification down stream for us. I’m undecided as to what this means for us given other back ground signals at present, should be a bit clearer by tomorrow morning 

Pivotal runs this evening.

We start the ball rolling with the Icon at 114 hours so far.

Early indications suggest a toppling mid atlantic ridge with the jet over-riding. The north sea low pressure is not digging southwards leaving southern England under a slack westerly at this stage.

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Icon 144 hours..jeezus. 

Surely we're not going to miss out again on another mid-winter easterly 

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