Honest answer ? The diminishing chance of easterly.

A colder outlook with less cold interludes is not the reason we are all coming here and investing a lot of our time in. 

 

 

It is for sone of us though. I genuinely appreciate how good a cold easterly is for some locations and how frustrating it can be to have one dangled under your nose to (perhaps) be taken away. I have had to bite my tongue because an easterly is absolutely dire for here 99 times out of 100. The “Beast” was a prime example.

I can only go with what the charts show and not what I like because im the end it makes no difference to what is going to turn up. I will continue to analyse the trends and, even though I rather it was not the case, I believe some form of easterly is likely in th next 3 weeks even if it doesn’t not turn up in the coming days. Those repeated glimpses are normally an encouraging sign.

I feel your pain Steve even if I don’t share your desire for an easterly, and as I say I think you will get one in due course (but that is more a hunch than direct analysis) 

 

 

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Maybe the mighty ICON was right after all!

UKMO not good for coldies at 120

 

Game, set and match Atlantic  -

 

https://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2019011912/UW144-21.GIF

 

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UKMO excellent 👍🏻😀

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I feel your pain Steve even if I don’t share your desire for an easterly, and as I say I think you will get one in due course (but that is more a hunch than direct analysis) 

 

Marcus and Doc...peace and love and all that. 

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You can see why, even in the less mild interludes, the Met Office are going for a cold outlook. Based in the GEFS 06z this is probably the mildest part of the outlook with colder conditions before and following.

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I'm not having any digs at anyone by the way. I'm just venting. I'm incredibly pissed off as you can gather. .

You're not the only one. I honestly thought we were onto something here. I'm still smarting from how we totally missed out on the snow in last year's Beast From The East while West Kent had several inches (although we ended up with a rare freezing rain event).

I'd much rather all the charts just show a westerly airflow at least to put us out of our misery and I could make my call on my own forecast page, as in next time someone ask me if we are going to have snow, I'll just simply say "no".

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No words. Utterly infuriating.

For us in the SE we need an easterly. Nothing else cuts the mustard.

This one cuts deep it’s feels like the build up has taken forever.

Those mild stragglers have appeared to win the day 😡

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Latest from the US. Harper now moving marginally more North of East than before bringing a greater ice threat to large NE cities but probably not enough to make a difference. It also needs to slow its forward speed to take the momentum out of the Atlantic down the line, but that looks unchanged.

https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2019-01-15-winter-storm-harper-snow-forecast-plains-midwest-northeast 

UKMet 12h rolling out does indeed have this storm shallower and quicker out of the blocks into the Atlantic than the 00 run with the significant change in T144 synoptics

Its still going to be coldish for the next week. Just boring for those wanting 1 in 5 or 10 year events. At least until, say, 1st Feb or thereabouts ;-)

Jeff

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It’s quite cruel in a way how the midweek trough just hangs about waiting for the next pulse of energy to catch up and cut the ridge in two.
I concur it’s probably curtains for this particular Easterly chance but another could evolve shortly afterwards.

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Even this optimist can see nothing of note on the horizon leaving us going into the final month of *cough* winter. One thing of note is how useless long range modelling really is, you may as well use seaweed in determining the weather post ten days.

I concur it’s probably curtains for this particular Easterly chance but another could evolve shortly afterwards.

Agreed. I'm not sure many of us have the energy for the next carrot dangler though. 

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It's incredibly annoying that the models can just flip like this. Seemingly one average low pressure coming out of Canada can scupper a cold spell. Looks like day 10 again at the earliest for something of interest 

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Even this optimist can see nothing of note on the horizon leaving us going into the final month of *cough* winter. One thing of note is how useless long range modelling really is, you may as well use seaweed in determining the weather post ten days.

Yes in spite of everything we have managed to see no HLB that can impact the UK. Steve Murr has thrown the towel in on t'other side.

 

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138 GFS. Game over for the easterly. This has made a complete mockery of the 500Hpa anomoly charts showing strong blocking over Icleand and Greenland in the final week of January.

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Winter is over !

See you all in March.

At least my CET prediction of 4.6 won't look too silly now. My heart was correct all along.

Happy hunting guys. 

I'm out of here. 

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Good agreement by day 6 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GEMOPEU12_144_1.png

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Game, set and match Atlantic  -

 

https://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2019011912/UW144-21.GIF

 

 

ICON although not perfect has beaten the living **** out of ALL the other models this time around.  Very impressive 

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Yes in spite of everything we have managed to see no HLB that can impact the UK. Steve Murr has thrown the towel in on t'other side.

 

I suppose we could take that as a positive going forward seen as Steve appears to possess  the reverse Midas Touch on such matters. 😜

And to add insult to injury, it still manages to fit in a gale force southerly wind - my most loathed weather type - on Monday night (again) and it'll be accompanied with a spell of heavy rain as the trough feature (remnants of Harper?) drops south east wards over the UK.  That said, that has been showing up in the past few runs which has no problems with being carried forward into the reliable time frame and there is a chance of a short spell of frontal clearance wet snow but that is of little interest to me.

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