ICON different to the 0z 

Icon 144 hours..jeezus. 

Surely we're not going to miss out again on another mid-winter easterly 

We have to give credit to the ICON for how it is performed over the last few days, that's really poor not just at T144 but going forward.

Icon 144 hours..jeezus. 

Surely we're not going to miss out again on another mid-winter easterly 

Its a better run than the 0z 

Did the ICON ever show an easterly? Maybe on one run?

I don't know but if this is going to come off we need ALL output to show the easterly. Stop trying to polish a turd. Its awful.

 

I don't know but if this is going to come off we need ALL output to show the easterly. Stop trying to polish a turd. Its awful.

Normally this would be accepted - why is it now awful

ECM likely to follow ICON.

well if it does, and as you say it most probably will, then it’s probably a given that the easterly is off the cards. Terrible bad luck again given other background signals

 

I don't know but if this is going to come off we need ALL output to show the easterly. Stop trying to polish a turd. Its awful.

What’s awful? The diminishing chance of an easterly or the cold outlook? 

That aside the ICON which has never really gone for an easterly still doesn’t. I would not be surprised if serveral other models if not all them drop the easterly idea too but time will tell. The cold outlook with less cold interludes is however likely to remain unless there is a chance to the pattern of the last couple of weeks.

If it doesn’t there’s not exactly much we can do about it.

 

yes I’ve been looking at this too and any possible amplification down stream for us. I’m undecided as to what this means for us given other back ground signals at present, should be a bit clearer by tomorrow morning 

https://twitter.com/GregPostel/status/1086602981150212096?s=20

This guy has the qualifications to know what he talking about. ie: that the 1-2 week period is unforecastable. At the moment

Jeff

 

What’s awful? The diminishing chance of an easterly or the cold outlook? 

That aside the ICON which has never really gone for an easterly still doesn’t. I would not be surprised if serveral other models if not all them drop the easterly idea too but time will tell. The cold outlook with less cold interludes is however likely to remain unless there is a chance to the pattern of the last couple of weeks.

If it doesn’t there’s not exactly much we can do about it.

Im with you , I don't get this ? We don't just get cold from the East 

 

Normally this would be accepted - why is it now awful

For the SE contingent, only a mid-winter easterly presents a mouth-drooling prospect. The slow death (in forecasting terms) of this latest one is a bitter pill for those of us in Kent. Sure, NWlies are great for others but not here.

So let us wallow in our trough of despond, please

 What’s awful? The diminishing chance of an easterly or the cold outlook? 

That aside the ICON which has never really gone for an easterly still doesn’t. I would not be surprised if serveral other models if not all them drop the easterly idea too but time will tell. The cold outlook with less cold interludes is however likely to remain unless there is a chance to the pattern of the last couple of weeks.

If it doesn’t there’s not exactly much we can do about it.

Honest answer ? The diminishing chance of easterly.

A colder outlook with less cold interludes is not the reason we are all coming here and investing a lot of our time in. 

 

 

For the SE contingent, only a mid-winter easterly presents a mouth-drooling prospect. The slow death (in forecasting terms) of this latest one is a bitter pill for those of us in Kent. Sure, NWlies are great for others but not here.

So let us wallow in our trough of despond, please

Valid 

As you were 

Steve's touch of IMBYism can be misleading though

 Im with you , I don't get this ? We don't just get cold from the East 

Purely imby and selfish but we don't here in Kent. Maxed here today at 6.9c in our newly established ' cold pattern' 

 

Im with you , I don't get this ? We don't just get cold from the East 

I agree too. This is exactly what most of the model output has been showing for ages in terms of cold ensemble temperatures. The only bumps in the road I have seen have been occasional mad easterly runs. 

I'm not having any digs at anyone by the way. I'm just venting. I'm incredibly pissed off as you can gather. .

I'm not having any digs at anyone by the way. I'm just venting. I'm incredibly pissed off as you can gather. .

And knowing your location , I totally understand why mate , you carry on 

A dreadful UKMO at T96, and although no change in the METO outlook today - there will be a big one tomorrow.