I think too many people are looking at the latest GFS run through their cold easterly tinted glasses - it's chilly or cold throughout with several heavy snow events and yet again a persistent signal for significant northern blocking.

Wipe the disappointment of an easterly that may or may not happen away and check the calendar - it's 19th Jan, we're in a chilly or cold pattern with the possibility of snowfall just about anywhere and a low but decent chance of getting some properly cold air in at some point over the next 2-3 weeks.

"yeah but it's always FI etc" - what the low key snowfall parts of the country have just experienced? That was FI at one point and now it's not. The chilly, sometimes cold and unsettled regime that some people were resolutely ignoring when the GFS FI flagged it has now arrived and as it showed there'll be colder and milder (but not mild) interludes with snowfall a possibility just about anywhere. Shall we look at Tuesday for next point of snowy interest? That's not FI either.

I get the temptation to get excited about -10 850s ushered in by Scandi blocking, that's pretty much jackpot territory for my tiny part of the country but until it's T96 or at a push T120 if the support is good, they're just a representation of what might happen. Given the uncertainty in the GFS ens it was very much just one possible outcome too, albeit one with decent support (and one there's still a chance might happen too I guess).

With the persistence of the cold/chilly signal throughout I'm happy with what's happening and the chance of something more significant down the line. 

 

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I think those ECM data actually tie in quite nicely with the GEFS data. Cold, less cold interlude and then potentially colder. It’s also been signposted for weeks, unlike the TBC easterly which, while a threat, had not been a consistent theme.

Exactly.

It was only a few days ago that the professionals were saying the outlook was cold but it was unclear whether it would be north-westerlies or an easterly.  The charts were also favouring a flow from the north - remember the chunk of the polar vortex that was predicted to drop south through the country?

Anyway, the GFS(P) evolves in the same way as earlier in the week with energy dropping south from day 8.  As I keep saying, this isn't sorted yet by any means (Ian, take note).

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You can see quite clearly how zonality has returned and we have a run of mild weather ahead..... 

Honestly, this place can be extraordinary when there's cold weather in the offing.

 

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That made me laugh, 😂 you are certainly not a user I would hide. Your posts are balanced and informative 👍

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06z ENS for London:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850london0.png?cb=545

What is worth looking at here is the spread around 26th (next Saturday). It's unusual because, instead of the usual scatter, there's daylight between two determined clusters. Take a look.

 

This represents real uncertainty- but with options almost falling into two camps, rather than anywhere. 

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For balance there are still 7 members going for early Easterly (120) and another 5 or so in a ‘col’ holding pattern - the rest are ECM like.
With ICON & UKM Evidence if needed that it’s too soon to call this off.

Won't be too long before we know what's going to happen, but could still be Sunday/Monday before there's agreement for mid/late week! I'm already desperate to know haha.

Undeniably, FI is sets around day 4-5 (around 108 hours time): Though the very cold solutions appear to be  in retreat for the mid term (144-240)

 

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Still a good deal of uncertainty. Nonetheless from a personal point of view I think this has the potential to turn into a fiasco. It's worth noting the current update from Exeter (unless it has changed this morning) is suggesting cold or very conditions between now and mid Feb without milder interludes. Anyone who follows my posts elsewhere on the site will know I've been sceptical about the possibility of a prolonged cold spell until the last 36 hours or so when I started buying into it quite heavily.  

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GEFS gives x9 NElies in the south at T+144; at 168 this is reduced to 6, and at 198 still 6, but only 2 Ps favour this in all 3 windows (P12 & 13).

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Here’s a question, for long term gain would you take the GFS Control?

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Still a good deal of uncertainty. Nonetheless from a personal point of view I think this has the potential to turn into a fiasco. It's worth noting the current update from Exeter (unless it has changed this morning) is suggesting cold or very conditions between now and mid Feb without milder interludes. Anyone who follows my posts elsewhere on the site will know I've been sceptical about the possibility of a prolonged cold spell until the last 36 hours or so when I started buying into it quite heavily.  

It should be noted the ECM ENS despite some support now for the milder interlude midweek are cold, probably the coldest set I've seen for my locale out into February. So the overall theme still fits with this idea of colder weather going forward.

 

It should be noted the ECM ENS despite some support now for the milder interlude midweek are cold, probably the coldest set I've seen for my locale out into February. So the overall theme still fits with this idea of colder weather going forward.

The problem is the bumps in the road only appear at very short distances. 

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You can see quite clearly how zonality has returned and we have a run of mild weather ahead..... 

Honestly, this place can be extraordinary when there's cold weather in the offing.

 

DISCLAIMER - In no way am I saying things will turn out like 1947! That chart doesn’t look overly mild to me, am I wrong? I also remember going through the archives a few years ago and looking at a lot of charts from 1947, the thing that really struck me was that often the uppers weren’t that cold. With many of the charts from that period, to my untrained eye, I would have said they would produce cold rain IMBY. We all know, however, that wasn’t the case and down here on the north downs it was especially snowy. Could we get snow from some of these charts? Retron really knows his stuff and explained that with low pressure the boundary layer is a lot lower than normal so uppers don’t need to be as cold.......this doesn’t quite seem like the normal cold spell fail we have become accustomed to......

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I'm heading to northeast England thursday for ten days so you can pretty much forget about about any easterly, northeasterly, or potent northerly during this time.
They always fail to materialise or end upon my arrival..

 

The problem is the bumps in the road only appear at very short distances. 

Yeh, could be that these milder interludes simply keep popping up at short notice. Going with all the seemingly very good signals for a colder than average later winter you've got to think eventually the chances are good that we will end up with a proper cold spell...but who really knows! 

Just flicked through the ECM postage stamps. A week out theres still so much variation and then by end of ECM run they are generally very good, with lots of evidence of Greenland blocking by then and southerly tracking lows.

 

Yeh, could be that these milder interludes simply keep popping up at short notice. Going with all the seemingly very good signals for a colder than average later winter you've got to think eventually the chances are good that we will end up with a proper cold spell...but who really knows! 

Just flicked through the ECM postage stamps. A week out theres still so much variation and then by end of ECM run they are generally very good, with lots of evidence of Greenland blocking by then and southerly tracking lows.

Yes, saw that as well in ECM, the future is cold in my view with Feb being very cold.

Martin

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Good grief no, you are one of my faves lol 

thanks very much  !!

You can see quite clearly how zonality has returned and we have a run of mild weather ahead..... 

Honestly, this place can be extraordinary when there's cold weather in the offing.

 

It's 12 days away - if the GFS 6z/ECM runs are right we have a zonal +ve NAO pattern coming well before then and good luck if you think that will shift to what is shown on that chart for Jan 31 by then.

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Differences or what!? 

GEM MIDDAY on Tuesday snow depth and compare this with the Para:

 

Para midday Tuesday:

 

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Click on the user name for the profile. ‘Hide User posts’ is an option.

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I try always to read and take note of the posts of a handful of contributors here.  You are most certainly in that group, along with Darren, Doc and a handful of others.  

One problem with blocking someone is that it applies to the entire site and not specific forums.

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