What a surprise to eake up to light snow cover this morning.

It is getting v interesting now. The ICON solution has the support of the Met humans but just maybe they’re analysis will change.

Re the ICON - its 6z run (it only goes out to T+120) is slightly more favourable with the eastern seaboard low and the energy undercut:

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Or alternatively what Saint said 2 days ago and I said 3 days ago on this thread. Gotta give us credit on TWO too! 

Yes but you didn't a video with pretty graphics  

I'll share the kudos amongst you, great foresight!

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IMO, things are looking generally quite positive this morning if it's cold weather one is seeking. Quite a turnaround from this time yesterday when some of us were wondering if the suggested colder period was about to go belly-up.

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The ICON high looks further west and amplified further north. Am I seeing things?

Great model output this morning with the potential of the SSW starting to be realised and bear fruit. Not sure whats happening with the para output but regardless would not be surprised to see further upgrades today from the models.
Just what we've been waiting for.

 

Well it did start on the 17th January so that part is right.....

Pedantically, I'd say the 1947 cold spell began on the 21st, going by the Wetterzentrale reanalysis charts. The daily CET values (average of daily max and daily min) go from 6.3C on the 18th, 2.8 on the 19th, 1.6 on the 20th, 1.8 on the 21st, 1.0 on the 22nd, 0.1 on the 23rd, -0.6 on the 24th. By the 29th, it was down at -6.4.

I've just been catching up on the overnight runs, and they certainly look very encouraging. However the GFSP is rather late to join the party, though by about 14 days out it starts to being in a very cold easterly.

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Nice to start the day on a positve note of upgrades rather than the opposite. One word of caution is that the GFSP isn’t singing from the same hymn sheet so the champers is on ice until then.

00Z ensembles :  - what's happened to the mean lately - the white line?

 

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GFS 6Z not dropping the low southwards quite as cleanly as the 06Z, so the easterly doesn't kick in as early - might still be on the way but a little delayed?

Edit - still there but much slacker, although ironically so far it is a snowier run for central southern parts.

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Potential for some central areas to get >24hrs of snowfall next Mon-Wed. We could see some prone areas seeing quite large totals - if the charts are to be believed.

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00Z ensembles :  - what's happened to the mean lately - the white line?

 

Something has clearly gone awry with the graph plotting, as evidenced by that ridiculous precipitation spike at around the same time. This one is OK: http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_-251_ens.png

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Potential for some central areas to get >24hrs of snowfall next Mon-Wed. We could see some prone areas seeing quite large totals - if the charts are to be believed.

Yes a much slacker drop south of the trough Tues (GFS) and less robust build of heights behind it, but as is often the way as Synoptics tend to marginal the chances of substantial snow increase. 

I’m thinking we have another 36hrs to see if this becomes ‘locked’ and we must expect some adjustments and inter-model variations.

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GFS 6Z not dropping the low southwards quite as cleanly as the 06Z, so the easterly doesn't kick in as early - might still be on the way but a little delayed?

Edit - still there but much slacker, although ironically so far it is a snowier run for central southern parts.

The theme is still there though, which is the main thing.

You never know it may be one of the more milder options in the ens.  - Fingers X

Some exceptionally cold air just to our east by day 8  on the GFS 6z. Can we hit the jackpot 

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Very encouraged by the 06z run so far when you consider the trend over the last few days.
So looking forward to this afternoon and evening's runs.

Very very close to a complete freezer run but not quite stil good though.

 

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Looks like a beast is brewing on this mornings GFS run....

I love the idea... but I cant put up with the media running with it. Nathan Rao will be ringing all his media buddys

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Some exceptionally cold air just to our east by day 8  on the GFS 6z. Can we hit the jackpot 

Could be colder in the medium term than the 0Z but less cold later as the high sinks, versus the textbook retrogression shown in the 0Z.

Anyway the general pattern is (hopefully) firming up on something decent, with a snowy depression dropping south next week and ushering in an easterly of some kind.

The high sinks south a bit but it would be pretty cold under that HP with -8C 850s for many. 

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Some real deep purples out east on this run, with the isobars at the moment aligning to deliver it to the UK. This could be a fantastic end to this mornings GFS run.

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