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Dare we say the beginnings creeping into the reliable timeframe soon if not already?On another note, the Alps will get another astonishing pasting next week.
No, we’d be kidding ourselves and setting up for disappointment if we said that!
Patience
Some encouraging signs again this morning with colder and less cold interludes and some interest down the line to keep an eye on.
Some encouraging signs again this morning with colder and less colder interludes and some interest down the line to keep an eye on.
Very understated this morning, lots of potential today and blocking certainly looks favourite.
GEM , ICON and Para all poor though this morning so not there yet.
Anyone who knows anything about UK cold snaps/spells knows that t120 is aroundabout the mark you need to get to, though that can shrink down to t96 in some circumstances, so, I would suggest that the events of the middle to the end of next week, we will need to wait for, possibly until the weekend before being confident of. The models have a way of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, and providing that "Bullseye" moment. Nevertheless, encouraging runs this morning, with the ECM posing coquetishly as the "model of the day".
We’re not there yet. The frequently lauded ICON again fails to sink the trough into France from 120, and UKM isn’t as clean as I’d like.That said, the GEFS have taken a big step colder mid term and EC is impressive.Looking a decent chance of something notable but a day or so is required before sending the dispatches home on this one.
We’re not there yet. The frequently lauded ICON again fails to sink the trough into France from 120, and UKM isn’t as clean as I’d like.
That said, the GEFS have taken a big step colder mid term and EC is impressive.Looking a decent chance of something notable but a day or so is required before sending the dispatches home on this one.
All eyes on the handling of the cyclogenesis off the Eastern Seaboard and subsequent development and track of the LP. ECM takes it on a more northerly track and induces WAA to inflate the mid-Atlantic high; ICON brings the LP on a more NE track and inevitably produces a flatter pattern.
It remains a delicately poised evolution and the effects of the SSW being in the mix aren’t going to help.
But the options do seem to be moving in favour of a choice of cold or very cold weather. As always wind direction will dictate where it’s coldest and wettest/snowiest.
ICON covered itself with ignominy yesterday. Would like to see GEM and Para coming on board though.
The other point to consider, when not looking IMBY, is that Austria and Alps look set for a record setting year.
Not at all. The balance has tipped or sems to be tipping in favour of a colder scenario but as the changes in the last 24 hours have shown things can wobble around. There is no consensus on details and some compromise options (dull, grey and cool) are still realistic possibilies as are other flips.
Overall it is good/heading the right way if you want cold, but for this morning at least I will keep my champagne n the garden snow.
very true! Not been following the ICON too much over the past few days but hasn’t it been a consistent spoiler of this pattern?
Not wanting to discount it but hoping it’ll come round soon.
EC is a dreamland this morning!
covered itself with ignominy yesterday.
I hate it when that happens, you can't get the stuff off
Certainly seems like a general movement towards a colder outlook this morning but still without agreement.
ECM does look good in medium term though
Definitely a downward shift in the ECM 850 ens for the 00z in that timeframe (no surprise the Op was below the mean), but the min SD spread going solidly under -10 in the latter stages with the mean at about -7c. Still a big spread though (sorry can't post graph).
There you go:
Deepening trough over Biscay seems to be the highlight of the EPS post 240hrs this morning. Colder than normal over the entirety of northern Europe.
Not at all. The balance has tipped or sems to be tipping in favour of a colder scenario but as the changes in the last 24 hours have shown things can wobble around. There is no consensus on details and some compromise options (dull, grey and cool) are still realistic possibilies as are other flips.Overall it is good/heading the right way if you want cold, but for this morning at least I will keep my champagne n the garden snow.
Fair enough optimism got the better of me for cold, feeling positive about cold coming in next week and that’s better than what we have seen so far. Also snow is falling in arts now which is only a good sign!
All eyes on the handling of the cyclogenesis off the Eastern Seaboard and subsequent development and track of the LP. ECM takes it on a more northerly track and induces WAA to inflate the mid-Atlantic high; ICON brings the LP on a more NE track and inevitably produces a flatter pattern.It remains a delicately poised evolution and the effects of the SSW being in the mix aren’t going to help.But the options do seem to be moving in favour of a choice of cold or very cold weather. As always wind direction will dictate where it’s coldest and wettest/snowiest.
This is pretty much verbatim what Alex Deakin had to say in his video yesterday.
Will be an interesting development to watch. It’s very much all about wind direction.
This is pretty much verbatim what Alex Deakin had to say in his video yesterday. Will be an interesting development to watch. It’s very much all about wind direction.
The issue, as nearly always, is the jetstream pattern: will It amplify sufficiently to pull WAA northwards far enough? That is what's drives the alternative scenarios of cool to cold north-westerlies or, if the upper high moves to our north, cold to very cold easterlies. Having seen the flip-flopping and still limited cross-model agreement there's plenty of scope for one or the other or indeed something subtly different.
Or alternatively what Saint said 2 days ago and I said 3 days ago on this thread. Gotta give us credit on TWO too!