The Weather Outlook

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doctormog
10 January 2019 19:17:20

All very interesting and messy with lots of potential, little clear detail but many possibilities. Colder options dominate the milder ones for what it’s worth. That in itself does not guarantee cold or snow and certainly not prolonged, but the chance is there.


Gandalf The White
10 January 2019 19:20:52

 

 

850 temps look a little marginal 

 

Edit to add... at least down here

Originally Posted by: kmoorman 

Yes, because you're in the warm sector at that point but it's marginal: one of those situations with snow to rain/sleet and back to snow as th cold air comes back behind the LP.


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



ballamar
10 January 2019 19:44:11

 

Yes, because you're in the warm sector at that point but it's marginal: one of those situations with snow to rain/sleet and back to snow as th cold air comes back behind the LP.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

 

one of my favourite situations!!

marco 79
10 January 2019 19:48:02
Mean on gefs still only -5c.18th onwards...later stages rise slightly....ECM mean and op up to day 10 cool but not cold ...no signals for sustained cold yet .....jet pattern takes a surreal dive into northern Sahara in the extended...which

would be quite a site to see in itself if it comes to fruition...


Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
roadrunnerajn
10 January 2019 19:51:10
Interesting times and the potential for some heavy snow falls in places. However this set up in most cases would produce very little in the way of snow for areas west of Dartmoor.
Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic. 80m asl
Shropshire
10 January 2019 19:59:06

ECM / UKMO / GEM / ICON all excellent tonight - ECM has corrected west @192 allowing for the cold to remain in situ over the UK then back builds the cold west-
superb....
No sign still of that zonal reset...

Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 

Until this comes within T168 then the most likely outcome for me is a zonal pattern with +VE NAO with passing days of PM air.

 


From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
ballamar
10 January 2019 20:12:42

 

Until this comes within T168 then the most likely outcome for me is a zonal pattern with +VE NAO with passing days of PM air.

 

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

 

are you not seeing any blocking signals??!! Think that’s a brave call

White Meadows
10 January 2019 20:33:12

 

 

are you not seeing any blocking signals??!! Think that’s a brave call

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

There tends to be a general ongoing ‘at war’ situation with Ian and mr Murr. Poor old Steve all he does is work hard to present the facts in an exciting way.. always has. I don’t understand the vendetta (?)

White Meadows
10 January 2019 20:40:27

2m temps from De Bilt nothing special- pretty much in line with expectations of any cold coming from other quarters I.e not east .

http://www.weersite.net/?actueel&ensemble&gfs_2m

 

White Meadows
10 January 2019 20:43:35

Some good ice build up east coast of Greenland at the moment. Should assist with any retrogression HP staying put  for a while:

https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

 

Arcus
10 January 2019 20:46:33

 

Until this comes within T168 then the most likely outcome for me is a zonal pattern with +VE NAO with passing days of PM air.

 

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

+ve NAO in Jet slowdown mode does not preclude heights evolving at short range elsewhere. You should know this from previous SSW events - and the trop response is still evolving. We do not need 1050mb heights in GL or Scandi for blocking when the jet is not raging through and is winding down like a spent Catherine Wheel. Normal model rules do not apply.


Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

Gusty
10 January 2019 21:08:35

The ECM 12z DeBilt was near the bottom of the pack. Although the milder clusters are very much the majority a small colder cluster is emerging. 

http://www.weersite.net/?actueel&ensemble&ecmwfpluim

 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 

Join Kent Weather on Facebook.

https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Gavin D
10 January 2019 21:15:40

DPower
10 January 2019 21:32:08
The charts showing the downward propagation of u winds do not reach the troposphere untill aroud the 20th. Models may struggle perhaps to capture the change until nearer this time frame.
Gooner
10 January 2019 21:44:20

I personally think we are chasing the end of that rainbow , I think we will get there to find the goodies have been stolen .

I still don't see any sustained HLB yet , it looks cold but from a NW mainly .

Of course things might change but I'm of the opinion until start to continually see some eye candy in the GEFS then we keep chasing. 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Steve Murr
10 January 2019 22:02:52

I personally think we are chasing the end of that rainbow , I think we will get there to find the goodies have been stolen .

I still don't see any sustained HLB yet , it looks cold but from a NW mainly .

Of course things might change but I'm of the opinion until start to continually see some eye candy in the GEFS then we keep chasing. 

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

18z looks to make it a full house of cold tonight...

JACKO4EVER
10 January 2019 22:06:06

I personally think we are chasing the end of that rainbow , I think we will get there to find the goodies have been stolen .

I still don't see any sustained HLB yet , it looks cold but from a NW mainly .

Of course things might change but I'm of the opinion until start to continually see some eye candy in the GEFS then we keep chasing. 

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

should be good for northern hills I would have thought? 

doctormog
10 January 2019 22:08:26
Timescales unchanged so far on the 18z output with the first play with -10°C t850s in touching distance at 87hrs. I’m not mentioning it because it will be especially wintry rather because it is a sign of the consistency of the timescale.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_87_2.png 


Whether Idle
10 January 2019 22:13:05

I personally think we are chasing the end of that rainbow , I think we will get there to find the goodies have been stolen .

I still don't see any sustained HLB yet , it looks cold but from a NW mainly .

Of course things might change but I'm of the opinion until start to continually see some eye candy in the GEFS then we keep chasing. 

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

 A sane and balanced post. šŸ‘


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Rob K
10 January 2019 22:30:15

The 12Z at 204hrs had a 985mb low over southern Norway... the 18Z at 198hrs has a 1025mb high in the same place.

 

The general pattern remains the same though with a strong Azores high, coupled with low pressure south of Greenland, scuppering any chance of interesting weather for the south for the foreseeable future.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

10 January 2019 22:30:17

The synoptics may not be showing screaming easterlies but the output has for some time now been consistently showing much colder conditions for the second half of the month. 

These charts from the 12z GEFS illustrate the point nicely

850hPa temperature anomalies for Europe

Turns much colder than average in a week's time for the northwest of Europe

Days 2-6 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=eu&pkg=T850aMean&runtime=2019011012&fh=144

Days 7-11 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=eu&pkg=T850aMean&runtime=2019011012&fh=264

Days 12-16 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=eu&pkg=T850aMean&runtime=2019011012&fh=384

2m temperature anomalies - mild for the next few days and then it starts to turn much colder

Days 2-6 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=eu&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2019011012&fh=144

Days 7-11 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=eu&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2019011012&fh=264

Days 12-16 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=eu&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2019011012&fh=384

doctormog
10 January 2019 22:33:48

The synoptics may not be showing screaming easterlies but the output has for some time now been consistently showing much colder conditions for the second half of the month. 

These charts from the 12z GEFS illustrate the point nicely

850hPa temperature anomalies for Europe

Turns much colder than average in a week's time for the northwest of Europe

Days 2-6 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=eu&pkg=T850aMean&runtime=2019011012&fh=144

Days 7-11 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=eu&pkg=T850aMean&runtime=2019011012&fh=264

Days 12-16 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=eu&pkg=T850aMean&runtime=2019011012&fh=384

2m temperature anomalies - mild for the next few days and then it starts to turn much colder

Days 2-6 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=eu&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2019011012&fh=144

Days 7-11 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=eu&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2019011012&fh=264

Days 12-16 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=eu&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2019011012&fh=384

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

Sums things up nicely. 

(And Rob you’re right, in the mediumto longer term the GFS op is not overly consistent. The GFSP has been more so and the ensembles pretty steady)


Phil24
10 January 2019 22:33:51

Touchdown.

 

Polar Low
10 January 2019 22:39:18

yup GW good cluster now gfs things are moving good ec update this evening, fab 240 chart the station master is at the ready his asked for the whistle

 

The synoptics may not be showing screaming easterlies but the output has for some time now been consistently showing much colder conditions for the second half of the month. 

These charts from the 12z GEFS illustrate the point nicely

850hPa temperature anomalies for Europe

Turns much colder than average in a week's time for the northwest of Europe

Days 2-6 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=eu&pkg=T850aMean&runtime=2019011012&fh=144

Days 7-11 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=eu&pkg=T850aMean&runtime=2019011012&fh=264

Days 12-16 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=eu&pkg=T850aMean&runtime=2019011012&fh=384

2m temperature anomalies - mild for the next few days and then it starts to turn much colder

Days 2-6 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=eu&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2019011012&fh=144

Days 7-11 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=eu&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2019011012&fh=264

Days 12-16 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=eu&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2019011012&fh=384

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

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