All very interesting and messy with lots of potential, little clear detail but many possibilities. Colder options dominate the milder ones for what it’s worth. That in itself does not guarantee cold or snow and certainly not prolonged, but the chance is there.

Yes, because you're in the warm sector at that point but it's marginal: one of those situations with snow to rain/sleet and back to snow as th cold air comes back behind the LP.

one of my favourite situations!!

would be quite a site to see in itself if it comes to fruition...

Until this comes within T168 then the most likely outcome for me is a zonal pattern with +VE NAO with passing days of PM air.

are you not seeing any blocking signals??!! Think that’s a brave call

2m temps from De Bilt nothing special- pretty much in line with expectations of any cold coming from other quarters I.e not east .

http://www.weersite.net/?actueel&ensemble&gfs_2m

Some good ice build up east coast of Greenland at the moment. Should assist with any retrogression HP staying put  for a while:

https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

+ve NAO in Jet slowdown mode does not preclude heights evolving at short range elsewhere. You should know this from previous SSW events - and the trop response is still evolving. We do not need 1050mb heights in GL or Scandi for blocking when the jet is not raging through and is winding down like a spent Catherine Wheel. Normal model rules do not apply.

The ECM 12z DeBilt was near the bottom of the pack. Although the milder clusters are very much the majority a small colder cluster is emerging. 

http://www.weersite.net/?actueel&ensemble&ecmwfpluim

See what you mean but our UKMO 6 to 10 still suggesting the Atlantic changeable pattern will win out for now 👍

— marco petagna (@Petagna) January 10, 2019

I personally think we are chasing the end of that rainbow , I think we will get there to find the goodies have been stolen .

I still don't see any sustained HLB yet , it looks cold but from a NW mainly .

Of course things might change but I'm of the opinion until start to continually see some eye candy in the GEFS then we keep chasing. 

18z looks to make it a full house of cold tonight...

should be good for northern hills I would have thought? 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_87_2.png 

 A sane and balanced post. 👍

The 12Z at 204hrs had a 985mb low over southern Norway... the 18Z at 198hrs has a 1025mb high in the same place.

The general pattern remains the same though with a strong Azores high, coupled with low pressure south of Greenland, scuppering any chance of interesting weather for the south for the foreseeable future.

The synoptics may not be showing screaming easterlies but the output has for some time now been consistently showing much colder conditions for the second half of the month. 

These charts from the 12z GEFS illustrate the point nicely

850hPa temperature anomalies for Europe

Turns much colder than average in a week's time for the northwest of Europe

Days 2-6 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=eu&pkg=T850aMean&runtime=2019011012&fh=144

Days 7-11 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=eu&pkg=T850aMean&runtime=2019011012&fh=264

Days 12-16 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=eu&pkg=T850aMean&runtime=2019011012&fh=384

2m temperature anomalies - mild for the next few days and then it starts to turn much colder

Days 2-6 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=eu&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2019011012&fh=144

Days 7-11 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=eu&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2019011012&fh=264

Days 12-16 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=eu&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2019011012&fh=384

Sums things up nicely. 

(And Rob you’re right, in the mediumto longer term the GFS op is not overly consistent. The GFSP has been more so and the ensembles pretty steady)

Touchdown.

yup GW good cluster now gfs things are moving good ec update this evening, fab 240 chart the station master is at the ready his asked for the whistle