Remind me who you support...

There is a distinct main cold cluster developing now after about the 20th in the GFS 850 hPa ensembles. Although the mean is only -5C still that will drop if this cluster does indeed become the predominant solution.

I remember in the early/mid 00's, there'd be 3 or 4 people all doing running commentary as the GFS 12z rolled out, if there was cold/snow on the cards.

Happy days!

Lol, me too.

Anyway, cracking UKMO run. GFS not so good yet - surprise. Good start to the 12z though.

Just need that low to dive towards Italy!!

Best GEM I've seen in a while as well although the 850s never seem cold enough.

Indeed - good days. 

I too like the look of UK+144, but having watched the models for years, I never start to get excited (I mean really excited) until we see day 6 agreement in the operational output.  Add to that, you always want rid of the Azores High.   Until then, the tentative signs are encouraging but for grumpy old me, they're just that....signs.

Be good.  

Things are certainly looking more interesting if it’s cold you’re after.

It also counters the belief expressed by some that because December and early January has been mild and uneventful, it can only ever continue to be like that.

Azores high being a complete see you next Tuesday on the GFS 12z.

It's an impressive split. If the Azores High buggered off it would be fantastic.

A warm air UK sandwich. You would have to say it wouldn't take much from there, to hit the jackpot:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/12_384_mslp500.png?cb=341

With a nice PV split as well.. perfectly poised you have to say.

The rest of the ens will be interesting.

Just to add into the mix a little LP in the MED....

Very mild air heading our way at THE 12z FI chart if this verifies! 

Yea it is a bit of a fly in the ointment.

What keeps it so pumpped up? Southern arm of the jet? 

Ok.... so Im starting to see something in the charts that tallies with the LRF / SSW impact chatter / discussion consensus of around 20th Jan for something to happen 

17th

19th, notice the atlantic LPs arent really moving to the UK as quick as they were, and infact are spreading out allowing GReenHP to form. Albeit a rather crooked malformed one.

Beyond that it all gets a bit daft with Scandinavia in -20*c uppers off a southwesterly.  I just think thats the models shrugging the shoulders in a "i dunno" kinda fashion. As how quickly the atlantic slows down (presumably under the influence of reverse flow from the SSW) is really what we are all playing for here...  

But we are consistently seeing it begging to happen around the 17/18th, with colder impacts from the 20th.

This being said - despite the lovely colours, I think it will be nearer next monday / tuesday before we see anything that would resemble a forecast.

Just where they don't need it!! typical really,.