The Christmas Day Plume detected by ECM 2 days ago and developed by GEM on the 0z has been picked up on the Met O 120:

Alrighty, who ordered a Scandi High?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=12&time=288&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_288_1.png

Scandinavia high at last shown up

Yes a tasty option in deep FI indeed.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_288_1.png

Scandinavia high at last shown up

Deep FI though and that has been all over the shop of late.

At least it should be dry next week, but it won't feel Christmassy.

 

Is the SSW forecast absolute or relative? It's just that if it is that unusually low in the strat now isn't warming almost inevitable? Is it the absolute values that matter (i.e warmer than usual) or the rate of change i.e "the sudden"? Just wondering.

I believe the sudden part is important because of the knock on effects. The warming needs to cause a reversal of zonal winds 60°N at 10hPa to be classed as a major SSW and that is indeed forecast for the coming event. You do get minor SSW’s where there is a suddem rise in temperature in the stratosphere but it does not result in mean zonal wind reversal 10hPa at 60°N). 

Whether any of that leads to cold weather for us down the line, or indeed if the event occurs as currently models, remains to be seen.

Alrighty, who ordered a Scandi High?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=12&time=288&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

 

Finally a decent GFS Op , A very snowy first few days of the year for the south.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_288_1.png

Scandinavia high at last shown up

Eyecandy, but looks unstable with too much energy going over the top.

We've had a distinct lack of pressure rises to our north the past few winters, with the main thrust of cold going to (or toward) the south of the UK.

 

 

Eyecandy, but looks unstable with too much energy going over the top.

We've had a distinct lack of pressure rises to our north the past few winters, with the main thrust of cold going to (or toward) the south of the UK.

step in the right direction, factoring in hopefully warming. End of run almost mirrors a split as well with potential extreme cold heading south

 

Deep FI though and that has been all over the shop of late.

At least it should be dry next week, but it won't feel Christmassy.

As with any solution in FI, what the GFS 12z shows needs to be treated with a great deal of caution. However, if there is to eventually be a chnage of pattern from what we have presently, it will have to begin from somewhere.

Let's all hope that maybe, just maybe, the GFS 12z solution could be the beginning of a change, but as ever time will tell on that one.

 

As with any solution in FI, what the GFS 12z shows needs to be treated with a great deal of caution. However, if there is to eventually be a chnage of pattern from what we have presently, it will have to begin from somewhere.

Let's all hope that maybe, just maybe, the GFS 12z solution could be the beginning of a change, but as ever time will tell on that one.

Yes - nice to see a change'- finally? now let's hope this is just the start!?

Quite a big flip-flop and for the best! About time too! Nice to see the models starting to 'pick up' on this SSW.

Well considering this was the chart on the 06z run:

Compared with most recent 12z run:

 

 

Finally a decent GFS Op , A very snowy first few days of the year for the south.

Ties in well with what the Met Office have been saying - about Jan?

It could be downgraded, or delayed as it's the first the GFS op model has picked up on this SSW.

T

 

Agreed, the ensembles have that feel about them at the moment.

I still think next week is all to play for. I think something at short notice may crop up.

I’m hoping so too, if only to keep my winter forecast on track...

A poor ECM ens if it's cold weather you're seeking

 

Ties in well with what the Met Office have been saying - about Jan?

It could be downgraded, or delayed as it's the first the GFS op model has picked up on this SSW.

I suspect it’s just GFS variability rafter than SSW/reversal driven as that isn’t due until around 1st Jan and then it needs to propagate to where the Troph can be affected. I think a few more days are required if we’re going to see SSW driven synoptics but anything in the mean time is definitely a bonus.

UKMO extended keeps the UK in a relatively mild set-up with some patchy rain/drizzle in the west

Bit different on GFS but shows uncertainty- must be the drones stopping all the data 😂