Some decent attempts at easterlies in the GEFS suite.

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Some decent attempts at easterlies in the GEFS suite.

Yes a few cold stragglers starting to appear:

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

 

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Some decent attempts at easterlies in the GEFS suite.

Agreed, the ensembles have that feel about them at the moment.

I still think next week is all to play for. I think something at short notice may crop up.

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What are they? [Nacreous clouds]

Just to add to the replies already posted - pictures of them on my all-time favourite website:

https://www.atoptics.co.uk/highsky/nacr1.htm

I've seen noctilucent clouds before, but not nacreous clouds.  I'll be keeping my eyes open.

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would be a nice Xmas present from the gods to see some of these clouds. I don't recall ever seeing one before

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would be a nice Xmas present from the gods to see some of these clouds. I don't recall ever seeing one before

 

I've seen one, probably 3/4 years ago. Took a photo on my phone, but it didn't turn out very well. I'll have to dig it out sometime.

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would be a nice Xmas present from the gods to see some of these clouds. I don't recall ever seeing one before

I have seen them once, there was a well recorded display over northern England in 1996. I saw them from Sheffield. They made the front page of the local paper as I recall.

 

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I have seen them once, there was a well recorded display over northern England in 1996. I saw them from Sheffield. They made the front page of the local paper as I recall.

There was a good sighting of them of them in I think Feb or March 2015 or 2016 over here, and I thought the UK too? 

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Just to add to the replies already posted - pictures of them on my all-time favourite website:

https://www.atoptics.co.uk/highsky/nacr1.htm

I've seen noctilucent clouds before, but not nacreous clouds.  I'll be keeping my eyes open.

What a fabulous photograph.  Definitely worth looking out for those, with camera at the ready.

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Adjective[edit]. nacreous (comparative more nacreous, superlative most nacreous). Of, or resembling nacre (mother of pearl)

 

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There was a good sighting of them of them in I think Feb or March 2015 or 2016 over here, and I thought the UK too? 

Feb 2016?

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/640770/Penis-shape-nacreous-clouds-Whitby-Storm-Henry 

 

Not visible from the south, AFAIK. I certainly didn't see them.

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 Feb 2016?

 https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/640770/Penis-shape-nacreous-clouds-Whitby-Storm-Henry 

 Not visible from the south, AFAIK. I certainly didn't see them.

 

Saw them here in Worcs on 2 or 3 occasions that week, though sadly didn't manage any decent photos.. 

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Feb 2016?

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/640770/Penis-shape-nacreous-clouds-Whitby-Storm-Henry 

 

Not visible from the south, AFAIK. I certainly didn't see them.

 

I've seen them down here on south coast 

So... what will the 12z's bring us?

A tentative increase in the cold perturbations? Or a lukewarm custard pie in the face?

 

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So... what will the 12z's bring us?

A tentative increase in the cold perturbations? Or a lukewarm custard pie in the face?

 

ICON and UKMO have given us plates of warm piss for next week.

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All the models want to do at the moment is to build pressure in exactly the wrong place from the UK perspective.

Sickening for the Christmas week.

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Thanks, that is what I was uncertain about. The models seem to be showing that the 10hPa PV is likely to be smack over the UK come the beginning of January.

 

Incidentally Ian Fergusson was posting on Twitter yesterday about the possibility of nacreous clouds in the coming days as the strat temperature is unusually low over the UK (down to -85C).

Is the SSW forecast absolute or relative? It's just that if it is that unusually low in the strat now isn't warming almost inevitable? Is it the absolute values that matter (i.e warmer than usual) or the rate of change i.e "the sudden"? Just wondering.

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Feb 2016?

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/640770/Penis-shape-nacreous-clouds-Whitby-Storm-Henry 

 

Not visible from the south, AFAIK. I certainly didn't see them.

Yep, would have been around that time, though don't recall seeing that specific 'shape'. They were most visible in the morning. 

Took a couple of pics I remember but would have to root them out. 

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All the models want to do at the moment is to build pressure in exactly the wrong place from the UK perspective.

Sickening for the Christmas week.

But travel disruptions are likely to be kept at a minimum at a time when most people will be buzzing around the UK visiting relatives and friends for Christmas - and at the same time probably a good time to take a step back from model watching for a few days and just enjoy the festive period like actual normal people.  But of course we would not be able to resist having a cheeky peek here and there. However, that said about next week, reduced visibility could be an issue as the air become calm and stagnant in time.

(And besides, I generally don't bother with Christmas as it'll just be me and my elderly mother keeping it cheap and simple and quietly relaxing for the most part).

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GFS bit more of a better shape in the high and potential to get into a more favourable position to advect cold to UK

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_240_1.png