Model accuracy stats are always available here:

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

 

 

 

Thanks Ben.

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I think any early pressure rise north of the UK is almost guaranteed to be steamrollered flat as the vortex gets squeezed across to this side of the pole by the warming taking place in the next few days. I would expect to see pressure anchored well to our south until the second week of Jan or so - maybe if HP hangs on in the southern half of the country it might be reasonably settled but I don't think we can escape a couple of weeks of deep purples on the charts to our northwest before anything exciting happens.

I’m not convinced the relationship of the temp at 10hPa and at 500hPa is as simple as that Rob. They aren’t always stacked like that. We really don’t know how the warming and displacement is going to affect the surface synoptics and we have MJO phases etc to add to the mix.

I agree it’s not looking too promising with respect cold shots but the NWP can flip rapidly. 

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At times like these we need to put faith in the professionals and concentrate on our careers. 

 

 

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At times like these we need to put faith in the professionals and concentrate on our careers. 

 

 

😂😂😂 Now why would we want to miss out on temper tantrums and posting winters over, again and again and again.😎

It’s looking more and more likely that we’ll see a split rather than a displacement now, I think surface cold under a U.K. high being the holding pattern until we see the trickle effects of the above. I wonder if we can get a sustained well below average January under our belts?

‘The NWP can flip rapidly’. Happened before and will happen again.
The lid as they say might be about to pop 😉

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We're still shaping up for a potentially severe spell of winter weather through the heart of winter IMO. Looking like a potential split in the SPV could ensue with a resultant tropospheric ridge somewhere on the Scandi-Iceland-Greenland axis.

Exciting times ahead. 

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Meanwhile in the near future, GFS goes for a mild Christmas Day in the S and W (12c Cornwall) , cooler towards the NE(4c Aberdeenshire)

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At times like these we need to put faith in the professionals and concentrate on our careers. 

 

. . . Or relationships. 

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It’s looking more and more likely that we’ll see a split rather than a displacement now, I think surface cold under a U.K. high being the holding pattern until we see the trickle effects of the above. I wonder if we can get a sustained well below average January under our belts?

So from what i am getting is that a split in the PV is more convincing or more favourable for cold and blocked weather as apposed to a displacement of the PV? just so i understand I am new to learning about PV and SSW from since last winter 's SSW early to mid Feb so just wondering!?

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FI of course but GFS 6z is showing temps up to 15c on NYD now.
Another absolute horror show.

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FI of course but GFS 6z is showing temps up to 15c on NYD now.
Another absolute horror show.

 

Agree horror show at the moment. But I dont expect to see significant cold until sometime around the 10th to 20th January. And that only if we get a split strat vortex which is signalled for about the 3rd January.  We should start to see some more interesting cold charts about new year is my punt

 

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 Barely a frost on offer from the 0z GEFS for the English Midlands in the Ensembles,  a  disappointing set of 2m temps for coldies like me.

Anyone fancy BBQ for the New Year Bank Holiday?

The mildish high scenario looking like winning out, and possibly becoming very mild during the twelve days of Christmas, at least initially.

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Important this morning to have a look through the panels on the GEFS this morning. Plenty of interesting charts now appearing - follow the op run at your peril
Martin

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A few of the panels are interesting but on balance it's looking poor for cold.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&charthour=06&chartname=ps_500hpa&chartregion=na-region&p=1&charttag=PS%20500hPa%20(GPDM)

 

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GEM picking up on the Christmas Day plume that ECM was toying with 2 days ago.  A recurring theme in the mid range output.

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The above chart seems to be coming a very typical pattern for Christmas over the past 20yrs... Obviously with some exceptions.

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I

 Barely a frost on offer from the 0z GEFS for the English Midlands in the Ensembles,  a  disappointing set of 2m temps for coldies like me.

Anyone fancy BBQ for the New Year Bank Holiday?

The mildish high scenario looking like winning out, and possibly becoming very mild during the twelve days of Christmas, at least initially.

I wouldn’t call maxes of 5-8C ‘mild’ - I believe these are around or just below normal? 

I accept your predilection to inject balance but sometimes you come across as a bit too keen to show the milder options. I still believe there are issues effecting the longer range results and we’re going to see wild swings in output appearing in the next day or so. 

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Is there a second warming forecast then? Because based on the GFS strat charts there is no sign of a split vortex, in fact by the end of the run the strat is cooling again with the vortex still looking very healthy indeed. Surely a second warming would be needed to cause a split.

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Christ on a cracker !!

Come on - for a negative AO, collapse in zonal winds going negative a week after the SSW - this is about as bad as it can get really and I thought DEC 2015 was poor!

Met Office has been quite persistent with colder and more blocked weather by the New yEAR and here we are 1st day of 2019 and we are bathed in temperatures of 12 to 15c !

the immediate response to the SSW is to turn things exceptionally mild indeed!! 

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