GFS P looks pretty poor to me, if it's a Scandi block you're after 

ECM + 192, block holding air getting increasingly colder over the UK, LP approaching.....

Not really a southerly. A pretty cold southeasterly (and easterly in the south)

I think tallyho_83's chart must be from the GFS, not the ECM, as the timestamp on the top right is for 18Z.

You are right. Should have gone to Specsavers 

Exactly 6 years since 'that ECM' and one of the greatest letdowns in weather forum history - 

Forecast -

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2012120512/ECH1-240.GIF?12

Actual -

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2012/Rrea00120121215.gif

To be honest it is a cool SEly on the GFS op run at that point too.

Are you commemorating a six-year-old chart that didn’t verify? A classic post Ian, even by your standards. 

Is that 6 years ago - I remember that. Itt almost caused a riot. Every man and his dog in weather forecasting didn't know where to put themselves. It was terrible and a shocking misjudgment almost on par with Michael Fishe's forecast in 1987 - the October hurricane.

I hope that changes or my Christmas pub crawl will be rather soggy!

[quote=Hungry Tiger;1058005]

Is that 6 years ago - I remember that. Itt almost caused a riot. Every man and his dog in weather forecasting didn't know where to put themselves. It was terrible and a shocking misjudgment almost on par with Michael Fishe's forecast in 1987 - the October hurricane.

Had the LP in the correct longitude....just the latitude let it down by some 700 miles....Since the power of the model computing has improved 50% since then....that would still render it 350 miles out....c'est la vie 

To be fair, though what actually happens as far out as T+240 is often very different from what the model(s) suggest, that is rather a spectacular discrepancy.

Yes, but an easterly of some sort actually came within much nearer timeframes, I think T96/120 until a spectacular volte face.

In the mean time it might quieten down nicely for a while from Monday -

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=18&time=108&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

The GFS loves to ramp the atlantic - so we need to wait to see if this atlantic bull charge is an outlier or a trend.  The GFS spots trends first  IMO, but not all its offerings in FI are trends: it spotted the current cold block before the other models a long time ago at extreme range and, after some prolonged wobbles, eventually returned to it and its verified i(almost) in one form or another, so I'm hoping this is not a trend to break the block with this jet fuelled bullet to our blocking scandi- high balloon!!

Cold blocks are stubborn to shift, but this one is not very cold...let's see what the next few runs bring...I just hope its not straw clutching.

Looking forward to the cold-ish non-zonal few days nevertheless!  

GFS OP 18Z RUN is stuck at +108HRS - doesn't go past ...IS anyone else experience this? or is there some glitch on the wetterzentrale?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&time=216&run=18&lid=OP&h=0&tr=3&mv=0#mapref

A shift away from any easterly this morning, the GEM has never bought into it and now the GFS is bringing the Atlantic through next Thursday - looking at the UKMO it would go the same way. 

ECM awaited but,as is often the case in December, the Atlantic looks too powerful to allow this one to happen.

Yes, good agreement now at T144, this one has gone East I'm afraid.

Day 7 and here comes the Atlantic, block receding to Russia -

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2018120600/ECM1-168.GIF

Quick rewrite from Exeter later !!

I think this is our best hope now post Christmas with the predicted SSW.  This easterly looks like being close but no cigar.  Kudos to GEM and JMA who were always much less enthusiastic about this easterly. 

So looks like a cool down with a couple of chilly days - temps 2-4c in my neck of the woods before a recovery to around average but unsettled with it is now the form horse. I wouldn't be surprised to see a slight correction back and an extension of the cold for a day or so depending on whether the models are getting the Atlantic energy right (at T120 probably not).

Both GFS and ECM, to varying degrees are keen to push the LPs on a south easterly track in to Europe, with the ECM being most obvious with this. On the ECM this allows Scandinavia to stay cold with weak ridging to the North/North West suggesting a route to cold isn't that far away.

GFS eventually reverts more to type in FI and just blats LPs on an increasingly Northerly track although they don't manage to steamroller through Scandinavia with a split in the energy, some sent way North and some in to Europe on a S/South Easterly track.

It's not quite the 3 days of chilly easterly this morning but it's not that far off and the post sort of easterly phase is looking interesting. Probably should mention the possibility of widespread strong winds that the set up presents, ala the ECM op.

Plenty of interest imo

Behind all the noise and nonsense such as ‘the 06 has an Atlantic bias’, ‘blocks aren’t modelled very well’ and this model is better than that one at that range etc etc is a tried and proven idiom - if you don’t have cross-model support at +120 then confidence is low for any model’s solution.

I still think there’s wriggle room on the distribution of the incoming Atlantic energy but (low confidence as per above) its likely that the cooler quieter spell next week will be very short lived.