Harsh on Moomin I think , the signal for any significant cold this side of Christmas has all but gone.

GFS ensembles as well pretty standard average 850s now upto the 22nd.

We have been led up the garden path yet again - but bitter experience has taught me to keep quiet - I never tell my friends and relatives that a cold spell is on the way, until it is nailed on - stellar charts at t+96 and I will start telling them.

The annoying fact is that the models can tease us with winter heaven, yet they never back down from zonal dross!

I think it's more a case of Brian getting a higher number of site visits (the main site, not the forums). And more hits mean more cash.

Certainly the 6z GFS shows energy appearing to 'want' to slide under the block - but the route into mainland Europe is also blocked by another, er, block.

No model was showing winter heaven next week,just a change to a not particular cold easterly,as it still early in the season.

And how do you know it’s over we still might get a easterly longer than is being shown, considering how much the models flip flop,and nothing is in the semi reliable timeframe yet anyway regarding the length or otherwise of next weeks easterly.

yes the block over Europe again causing a hurdle but if the Hugh can inflate slightly more over Scandinavia the Europe block can face the Atlantic instead, all very possible

Easterly at T +120 = load of tosh

Westerly at T + 168 = A given. 

.....Next. 

Well there are signs of an adjustment west so far in the 12Zs, with both ICON and GFS holding the block and Atlantic at bay for a little longer. Infant ICON is just a few hundred miles off a big snow event at 168.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2018120612/gfsnh-0-204.png?12 

Quite a battle coming up. Not looking good all round....

Just a minor annoyance that I've had for some time, so not aimed at this post in particular. Given that the atmosphere is three-dimensional. I tend to get slightly confused when people use "under" to mean not "under" in the literal sense but "to the south", or "over" to mean "to the north". Maybe I'm borderline autistic? 

Strat warming continues to be modelled over Siberia. Towards the end of the 12z this looks fairly more pronounced than its recent runs, but it has modelled similar scenarios to some degree for a while now towards the end of its 2 week timeframe...

Something happening around 16th December, but not an SSW:

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html

To clarify David, I have given up publishing my full winter thoughts here because I often (sometimes deservedly) was vilified for it - mainly because I accept I tended to push my agenda too aggressively.
My success in 2015 was mainly good luck, I accept that, although it was by no means a stab in the dark.
I do have my thoughts for this winter which I am happy to share if people wish me to. I am certainly not going to aggressively seek my own agenda and push it out at the annoyance of everyone else.

But basically, thoughts are a mild (possibly very mild) December. January will be a below average month but quite dry and February will start in the same vain but become much milder mid month with perhaps an early start to spring.

Closing this thread at 18:20.