ECM Means fairly similar to the Op this morning easterly gets close but not close enough,  Atlantic wins this round!

On the plus side there are signs of it becoming very wet and stormy again late next week. The second best outcome from my perspective. 

Not mine, Brian - the roof is still covered in plastic sheets!

Roger

Next weeks Easterly was never going to be anything spectacular in terms of cold wintry conditions but once again peoples expectations from easterlies always ends in tears 9/10. 😁

I think around Xmas will be our next opportunity but I suspect we’ll be looking N/NE this time around with deeper troughing into Scandinavia and heights centred more to our NW.

UKMO extended has the low in the Atlantic slightly closer to Ireland at t168

Yes, another epic fail to add to the long list.

Fortunately I didn't invest any effort into this one as it was all so predictable

There is too much heat and energy in the oceans now which make cold incursions less and less likely

Then again, had folk also looked at GEM, JMA and ICON this downgrade wouldn't have come as such a surprise 

Agree 100%.

Wet? and stormy? Why on the plus side?

I seem to recall you making a similar point on a few occasions last winter. While there may be some truth in that, it didn't stop the event from which you take your username at the end of last February, did it?

Nor all the cold incursions in  the first half of the winter which produced exciting weather in the north and west. 

 there will be potential up to a few days before.  Its never easily foretasted.  Preferably we need colder air over Scandinavia, that really hasnt happened yet though.  We havent seen our first real northerly plunge to get this into place.

Interesting to note the general track of LPs over the next week or two are forecast to be (in the main) a direct run West to East.  This is quite rare as we usually see them oscillate and move north east.  So the block is certainly influencing the weather, just a couple of hundred miles too east for the benefit of the UK is all.

This could mean a serious snow potential for anywhere on the northern edge of the LPs, the charts currently showing this setup for Central belt of Scotland with a number of snow events in the offing.

Because they are weather types that excite...on a weather forum?

Is this based on any specific model output or just a hunch?

Well since 1st day of winter it has turned stormy and the rain has been relentless since - a bit of an Atlantic onslaught really ! so we could do with drying our even if it's for a day or so!! who wants so much wind and rain?

Ian already answered that.

There is potential for some stormy weather even down here.

As a weather enthusiast, severe weather is always of interest to me in all its forms.

In general, cold easterly gloom doesn't cut it here much of the time

That may well be true for the majority of the UK, but I don't think that this has been the case for everyone. Over recent days, there has been a couple of weather systems which have taken a much more southerly track across the UK which has meant that they have mainly affected the south of the UK and missed out Scotland altogether. For here in Edinburgh, this hasn't been enough to give us any completely dry days so far during this month, but it has meant that the rainfall totals for here in Edinburgh at the moment for this month so far, are actually running at no more than average just now and in fact, Monday would have been our first completely dry day of this month had the weather system from from the night before not taken until 1am on that morning to clear away.

Pert 18 would destroy the country 😎

Met not interested tho Neil