Looking at the ECM and GFS mean at day 9/10 it does look as though the block will get blown away pretty quickly what happens after who knows but probably a spell of Atlantic weather. We could do with a SSW the experts seem to think one is likely early Jan.

The 0z ECM suite was the snowiest "down south" of this autumn/winter so far. So much so that for Reading the *mean* is 1cm of snow on the ground on the 14th/15th....

https://weather.us/forecast/2639577-reading/ensemble/euro/snow

(FWIW, it's likely to be the outliers dragging the mean right up. 10% of the runs have over an inch on the ground at the same time, though, which is encouraging.)

Indeed. I thought the EC 00 mean looked pretty good. It's a bit premature to be reading too much into one GFS OP run (supported by ICON and GEM) but my gut feeling is once these changes start occurring it's unusual for a reverse back to a full Scandy block.
I'm playing the waiting game until calling early next week.

The met are more confident Neil , am liking those snow charts 

But the problem is that the Met forward prognosis follows the model output - so it is always playing catchup. If the GFS 06Z Op is onto a new theme, the Met will update their forward guidance in the coming days too.

You cannot refer to a lagging indicator to bolster your hopes I am afraid.

GFS also has a bias of pushing low pressure systems off the US Eastern seaboard too quickly (you'll often see Joe B tweeting about this) - and there's a noticeable difference between ECM and GFS at the 144 hour range with the system off Newfoundland, which GFS then goes on to bomb. GFS might not correct this until tomorrow though.

The latest 45 dayer still hinting at a possible negative AO/NAO scenario developing towards or shortly after the new year. Could all change in the next run of course, but it has been the trend for a while now. 

ICON has caught up now it just leaves GEM lagging behind

12z

00z

Those who follow the Strat forecast are predicting a genuine SSW around 26th December (before then it is just what is called Wave 1 and Wave 2 activity which only displaces the Vortex).

If they are right about an SSW in late December, we know from February this year, what that can lead to.

We need to keep an eye on this - in the past, it has proved an extremely reliable forward indicator:

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html

Any late December forecast SSW should start showing up around mid-month.

UKMO staying strong, block into the reliable timeframe now, good to see ICON coming into line, seems to me that many parts of the jigsaw are falling into place and this should just be the starter, main course to come later in the winter 

Still room for manoeuvre either way.

Both GEM and GFS blow the block away pretty quickly. Let's see what the ECM does but we seem to be losing this one at the moment.

Part of me is wondering if perhaps the GFS and GEM are maybe being a bit too quick in blowing the Scandi HP away. I have seen some people comment in the past that on some occasions, the models can be too progressive and can underestimate the strength of a HP block.

Of course, we still need to get the HP to form first of all and form in the way that the models are indicating will happen next week. Once that has happened, we will hopefully have a better idea of what happens wrt whether it does stick around for a while or the atlantic makes a quick return.

The Control and Para are better so that's something.

Currently a see a bloke that hasn't got enough umph , might take a few attempts but going on what's on view at the moment I see the block not getting close enough for any sustained period 

We will have to see David but poor 12zs so far.

The Atlantic to me looks to be very tame for the time of year. No oomph in it at all.  

As someone said over the other side; Winmau must have a contract with GFS.

Feeble block. Feeble Atlantic. I'm sick of feeble. Something much bigger from either source will do me for now. 

ECM looking solid so far, UKMO good, GFS Para excellent, not a bad evening so far 

ECM +168 pretty much as you were 

How strange eh? from easterly to southerly??