If it were a bit colder and later on say in January - this could be one major snow event for the south west?

😉😀🌙.

LA2B MeridFlowEuro09  

Posted : 24 November 2018 11:45:57(UTC).

Just need to hope the GFS and ECMWF get the UKMO on board for this upcoming cold spell originating from the Greenland area and Iceland NE Atlantic. I must say the GFS is now improving is confidence.  But some say anything is possible.😆.

Blocking High next week with Reversal Easterly winds following this coming Sunday and Monday of Next week Cold Northerly plunge of air from SW Norwegian Sea and Iceland - UK and North Europe to get quite cold with widespread frosty nights etc.

GFS doing very well with Friday and Saturday this week and Weekend as two big Low Pressure Systems push east through UK North and NW Europe, very heavy rain and heavy showers with locally gale force winds in the aforementioned areas.

GFS and ECMWF 12z run today- very cold and overcast East SE UK and North Europe continental parts countries with high pressure divert Low Pressure well south to SW Europe and to North France etc.  Chance of wintry showers with very low temperatures both day and night away from SW Europe quarter...😉😀.

Starting to see a bit of consistency on GFS at least for an easterly, followed by an Atlantic system rolling through and then a Greenland high building behind, leaving the UK in cool/cold and cyclonic conditions.

Reasonable consistency between UKMO and GFS this morning with high pressure building over Scandanavia at T144!

GFS at the same point!

Ensembles fairly consistent for London in the short-medium term but a much more distinctive split IMBY.  GEM and the Control show what happens if things develop a little further to our east!

Friday +/- 1 day next week could get interesting, suggestion a low pressure could run into cold area, too early for any detail but could there be a narrow band that gets pasted with snow

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=7&time=216&run=0&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6

One to look out for

Yes, although the GEM isn't generally to be relied on, it did make a call last winter against the others in a similar situation and turned out to be correct.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

For how long / how dry are very much uncertain.

It’s not even subtle. GEM very isolated but of course you are correct to mention the possibility it might have the right idea.

That aside, very probable now we’ll have a strong Scandy high in place this time next week. Don’t raise expectations of snow streamers and drifts though - uppers and dps do not support anything other than some wintry showers (2m highs 3-4C maybe) and we need uppers lower than -7 to overcome the ssts which although only just above normal for Dec are a tad too high to avoid mixing into the lower layers and raising those wet bulbs. 

Being realistic we’re looking at ‘wintry seasonal’ rather than ‘Christmas card’ next week - at the moment.

https

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_216_1.png  although admittedly the ECM does like a good easterly

I raise you one - sftp.

UKMO extended (t168) is back after failing to update last night. It looks mostly dry with just a bit of precipitation in the far west

Is there any evidence to "expect" that height rise to the NW come Christmas? . GFS London ensemble this morning showing the main cluster to be relatively mild to the 21st but with a fair degree of uncertainty. With three weeks till Christmas I would still say it could be anything. Still, interesting to watch how our first cold snap pans out next week.

Wouldn't take much tho Neil to make it more of an event!!

Just a variation on a theme, finer details to be resolved. 

GFS 06 OP is not what we want to see - but no harm in a dose of realism - the time to get concerned is when all the models start to backtrack as so often happens.

GFS moving towards ICON re that low out in the Atlantic

GFS                                                              ICON

That's a fine LP system there! If Carlsberg did dartboard lows, that's how they'd do 'em. Then again, GFS does have form for overdoing these dartboard lows so I wouldn't be overly concerned at this point. It's all about whether the Scandy HP manages to set up stall or not and then advect West. All to play for. 

Nasty looking low moving towards the SW on GFSP

That said, I do feel that there will be some interest this winter, but feel that mid-late January is our best bet. December will largely be a write off IMO but with interesting charts to play a watching game at the very least.