GFS looks like reverting back to a more typical pattern of rain and fairly mild with occasional short-lived settled cooler periods

GFS looks like reverting back to a more typical pattern of rain and fairly mild with occasional short-lived settled cooler periods

 

Still not a zonal picture, just an example of what happens when the UK gets trapped on one side of the meridional flow instead of the other. The blocks are still there, just the positioning is shifted around in the 6z

The cold runs on the 7-day trend didn't last long.

Normal service resumes

The cold runs on the 7-day trend didn't last long.

Normal service resumes

Not for us as yet, but look east. Moreover, the long term November outlook from the Met Office is encouraging to say the least.

Yes it looks like it should warm up to around average in around seven days time.

A quick glance at the ICON model (as it is the most up to date at time of writing) shows some notably low 500-1000hPa thicknesses overnight into tomorrow morning. This looks around 512dam here? http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/iconeu_uk1-2-20-0.png?26-13

Edit: Having looked at some of the other models, which have the values around 518dam at the lowest here, this strikes me as a bit of an outlier

The cold runs on the 7-day trend didn't last long.

Normal service resumes

You have to remember that it's a trend, not absolute temperature. Today we are starting from a cold starting point, so the temperature trend is to get warmer. Before we were starting from warmth.

 

You have to remember that it's a trend, not absolute temperature. Today we are starting from a cold starting point, so the temperature trend is to get warmer. Before we were starting from warmth.

Yes, you’re right Rob. 

The models have been quite consistent about the cold that is currently setting in and have been pretty consistent about the recovery to around normal after that. As the days progress the trend will inevitably switch to reflect that as we enter the colder conditions.

I certainly hope day 7 is less cold than today/tomorrow here, as it feels decidedly chilly with the cold wind and showers 

Mid-teens for some parts next weekend 

5th of November & bonfire night daytime temps pushing 17c in one or two isolated spots of the south

Looking increasingly wet as we enter November, and potentially milder than average despite a nagative nao to start.
Conversely there is long term suggestion for cooler trends later in winter.
CFS (just for fun) has changed its tune for Feb-March 2019

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euT2me3Mon.html

Looking increasingly wet as we enter November, and potentially milder than average despite a nagative nao to start.
Conversely there is long term suggestion for cooler trends later in winter.
CFS (just for fun) has changed its tune for Feb-March 2019

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euT2me3Mon.html

 

I still se above average temps from December, Jan and Feb? what's changed!?  What was CFS going for previously for Feb to March 2019??

 

 

I still se above average temps from December, Jan and Feb? what's changed!?  What was CFS going for previously for Feb to March 2019??

For those who like clutching at straws, there's some quite promising snow cover over Siberia

https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

but before that has even a chance of affecting us, charts for the immediate future show a collection of depressions affecting the UK with cold(-ish) rain, especially later on e.g.

 

 

I still se above average temps from December, Jan and Feb? what's changed!?  What was CFS going for previously for Feb to March 2019??

CFS, or rather the ‘moy’ mean anomalies, of all the ingredients in the attempt to predict a seasonal time range, is pretty useless. It wobbles from issue to issue with a variability that makes a chocolate teapot look decent material for the base of a sauna.

You’re much better off taking a blend of all the signals and data, or better still let Gavin P do it for you in his excellent products. No better person on the net IMO for attempting seasonal forecasting.

 

 

CFS, or rather the ‘moy’ mean anomalies, of all the ingredients in the attempt to predict a seasonal time range, is pretty useless. It wobbles from issue to issue with a variability that makes a chocolate teapot look decent material for the base of a sauna.

You’re much better off taking a blend of all the signals and data, or better still let Gavin P do it for you in his excellent products. No better person on the net IMO for attempting seasonal forecasting.

Wednesday looks to be the transition day from the cold to milder temps some parts of the SE could be around 17c by Friday

Assorted depressions around so unsettled from time to time and place to place. The ones to watch seem to be Tue 30th moving up the North Sea, and more conventionally keep an eye out for FI Wed 7th and Mon 12th

Edit - apologies for being parochial - this Friday, the 2nd, also lively in the north