29C in April in fact. After the coldest March day in decades.

Apocalyptic thunderstorms, a long summer heatwave and drought, completely cloudless early May bank holiday weekend, and 26C in mid October. Quite a year.

 

More continental that's for sure (more extreme!) and on Sat 22nd September we (many in the south of UK reached daytime maxes of +8c to +10c one day under cold rain. Can never remember it that cold in September ever before measuring a daytime maxes of only +9 or 10c - but then again in October we reached +25 or 26c in South and east...which is almost a record breaker for a warm daytime max. This weekend we may not reach +8 or 9c by day with northerly wind which is rare in October! Then we whatever happens next is anyone's guess? Will we get a scandinavian block early November or not? - time will tell? Interesting times ahead for sure.

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If this occurred in December, Jan or Feb? :D

= BATTLE GROUND! AND THAT LITTLE FEATURE TO THE SOUTH WEST COULD BRING SNOW!

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If this occurred in December, Jan or Feb? :D

= BATTLE GROUND! AND THAT LITTLE FEATURE TO THE SOUTH WEST COULD BRING SNOW!

and if this occurred in July it we'd looking at some hot humid thundery fun.. 

 

what a shame it's October 

Looks to me that the Scandinavian High is going to get seriously established
By Tuesday (if it comes off) 1040 on this chart
Also sub 528 dam air over whole of Scandinavia

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_150_33.png 

Another 528 airmass heading towards Western Ireland with UK being squeezed

Not sure where this is going, but Atlantic prevailing it is not.

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Looks to me that the Scandinavian High is going to get seriously established
By Tuesday (if it comes off) 1040 on this chart
Also sub 528 dam air over whole of Scandinavia

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_150_33.png

Another 528 airmass heading towards Western Ireland with UK being squeezed

Not sure where this is going, but Atlantic prevailing it is not.

Temperature pattern http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 would support the Scandi/Russian high, but the rainfall suggests depressions stalling over the UK with plenty of rain http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 

NW Britain probably feel they've had enough rain but down here we need our groundwater topped up.

 

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That's what you call a proper Rossby wave.

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The colder air shouldn't hang around too long temps on the up slowly from around Wednesday

The colder air shouldn't hang around too long temps on the up slowly from around Wednesday

 

True, but it is still a highly and unusually blocked scenario - no sign of the zonal train arriving any time soon.

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True, but it is still a highly and unusually blocked scenario - no sign of the zonal train arriving any time soon.

In other words, the complete borefest in this part of the world look set to go on. This has to be the most boring autumn which I have ever encountered in terms of anything which is even remotely interesting actually happening with our weather and now, it is increasingly likely yo this is how it will end up.

The reason why I believe that is because if we did go into a more typical zonal pattern, that might be bad news for cold weather lovers when it comes to the winter, but this would probably be bringing some much needed rainfall to these parts (we have never had a single month with more than average rainfall since April, and we have been getting very little rain recently) and it would mean that something interesting was actually happening for once.

 

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Interesting low pressure showing over Eastern Europe by next Tuesday. With the embedded warm air to the east of the low I wouldn't be surprised to hear about violent storms and flooding.

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True, but it is still a highly and unusually blocked scenario - no sign of the zonal train arriving any time soon.

Maybe not classic zonal but looking at the ensembles it certainly looks like being pretty wet for a while from the middle of next week.

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To be fair Rob for the time of year neither the ECM nor GFS 00z high res op runs is overly wet over the next ten days. There are some wetter options on the ensemble sets but nothing notable.

In fact after the colder snap in the coming days it does not look especially noteworthy in any one way, just a bit of “inbetweenness”.

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Interesting low pressure showing over Eastern Europe by next Tuesday. With the embedded warm air to the east of the low I wouldn't be surprised to hear about violent storms and flooding.

Unseasonable warmth for Eastern Europe too next week:

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In other words, the complete borefest in this part of the world look set to go on. This has to be the most boring autumn which I have ever encountered in terms of anything which is even remotely interesting actually happening with our weather and now, it is increasingly likely yo this is how it will end up.

The reason why I believe that is because if we did go into a more typical zonal pattern, that might be bad news for cold weather lovers when it comes to the winter, but this would probably be bringing some much needed rainfall to these parts (we have never had a single month with more than average rainfall since April, and we have been getting very little rain recently) and it would mean that something interesting was actually happening for once.

 

I don't know why you keep going on about 'much needed rainfall' - are there water shortages in Edinburgh? Is drought imminent? No, so it isn't 'much needed'. 

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Heights to our NE continue to grow from strength to strength, very usual for this time of year so as long as that big block to our NE remains in situ and the Atlantic continues to look flat with the Strat also still not showing any signs of getting its act together, then the chances of something tasty as we head into next month remains high.

 

I don't know why you keep going on about 'much needed rainfall' - are there water shortages in Edinburgh? Is drought imminent? No, so it isn't 'much needed'. 

Actually, I would say that a drought IS imminent here.

Today will be the 12th day in a row at Edinburgh Gogarbank which has been completely dry if today stays completely dry and by the official definition, only another three on dry days are needed after that for there to be an official absolute drought at that particular station.

This is something which will therefore happen if there is no recorded rainfall at that particular station by the end of Sunday and since I'm still seeing little signs of any rainfall in the latest model out, that is enough to be able to say that a drought is imminent, technically speaking.

 

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I don't know why you keep going on about 'much needed rainfall' - are there water shortages in Edinburgh? Is drought imminent? No, so it isn't 'much needed'. 

You need to see Dartmoor.

But, if the models are anything to go by, we might see some rain in the forseeable.

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In other words, the complete borefest in this part of the world look set to go on. This has to be the most boring autumn which I have ever encountered in terms of anything which is even remotely interesting actually happening with our weather and now, it is increasingly likely yo this 

Were you away for Storms Ali and Callum, John 😃 ?

Still stacks of branches lying about all over the place here. And the wind has died down today but for the past 72 hours it's been constant, averaging out at 25mph with up to 50mph gusts. I came home Tuesday and found a level foot of leaves covering the driveway to the side of my house, took me ages to squash them all in the garden bin.

Without looking at specifics the patter is interesting
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_186_1.png 
Lots of blocking and potential for sliding/sinking low pressure. PV might ramp up suddenly but at lease it’s not zonal all the way through Scandi

Lots of blocking on this run - perhaps a couple of months of continental style weather akin to the summer which could result in some very cold conditions