The pattern is still there today cold turn out to be a bitter November

CFS, or rather the ‘moy’ mean anomalies, of all the ingredients in the attempt to predict a seasonal time range, is pretty useless. It wobbles from issue to issue with a variability that makes a chocolate teapot look decent material for the base of a sauna.

You’re much better off taking a blend of all the signals and data, or better still let Gavin P do it for you in his excellent products. No better person on the net IMO for attempting seasonal forecasting.

Wednesday looks to be the transition day from the cold to milder temps some parts of the SE could be around 17c by Friday

Assorted depressions around so unsettled from time to time and place to place. The ones to watch seem to be Tue 30th moving up the North Sea, and more conventionally keep an eye out for FI Wed 7th and Mon 12th

Edit - apologies for being parochial - this Friday, the 2nd, also lively in the north

ECM has a stormy and warm Saturday next week a complete contrast to yesterday!

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/ecmwf/graphe_ens3.php?mode=1&x=&y=&run=0&ville=Londres&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&runpara=0 

It’s not an unusual situation but unless there is a consistent trend in op runs over a few days then the 7 day (or even 5 day) plus charts are little more than very clever and quite often tantalising glimpses of what might happen (as opposed to what is likely).

Not bad for November

2m temperatures are not that impressive though

06Z ENSEMBLES - THE GFS Op is A MILD outlier perhaps? Shooting up to +13c @ 850hpa uppers.

But colder at the surface!?

I may as well not have bothered writing my previous post Gavin.

I feel like that many times in UIA

Surely you mean all the time? 

The 06z GFS ensemble set continue to show good agreement for the next three or four days with a marked divergence at that point. The significance? It is likely many of the operational runs in the next day or two will show differing scenarios for the first week or so of November.

It looks like things will often be cyclonic/unsettled but whether that is mild or average or (and less likely) cool, and whether it will be breezy or stormy is very uncertain.

This might stop a few from letting off those annoying bloody fireworks 

If this was December, Jan or Feb? - SNOW?

Saturday once again shows the potential for some pretty warm air heading our way along with heavy rain and strong winds

ECM

UKMO

This is shaping up for a discussion about whether charts or ensembles are the most reliable predictors. Probably you need to analyse both, but if time presses? Ensembles give you a quick look at a variety of outcomes, but without any background; chass show what might develop and where, but working through all the perturbations for the next 10 days is a bit much, even for weather freaks, so chart enthusiasts let the professionals do that and concentrate on the op run.

Myself I prefer charts, and reckon that consistent op runs viewed daily across different models are reliable, even into FI, and offer a more interesting overall picture.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_0_1.png 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_0_2.png 

Not often that you see sub -5c 850 hpa's in an easterly drift in October. Was enough for scattered snow shrs overnight and a slight dusting here and presumably further north and east as well.

Yes, as you say, it can be time-consuming to look at all the output.  I tend to use the operational charts out to around day 5 and then look at the ensemble mean as well.  The usual mantra applies, i.e. Cross-model and ensemble support.

Of course nothing is foolproof; we've all seen ensemble suites and operational runs flip in unison when something changes upstream.

Saturday could be a fairly decent day the further east you are with temps into the low teens fairly widely

Fresher but mostly dry on Sunday away from Ireland

Looking beyond the weekend we could be about to enter the longest spell of unsettled weather for quite some time with low pressure fairly dominant out to mid-November on 12z GFS