interestingly the fleet all reappeared at the gritter depot behind sandbach services since monday 

AND they have snow plough attachments in there too 

Meanwhile, east of the Urals winter makes a serious appearance - see chart for 2nd week.

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

that probably means we'll get something in between.. More rain towards an already wet NW Scotland and mildish flat weather in the southern half of the UK. 

Its like we're in a state of limbo until the weather can decide which way to go!!!

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

It is the little area of low pressure over the near continent that is responsible for much of that. Or, depending on which model you go with, several southerly tracking areas of low pressure moving across the country to the North Sea. Not overly pleasant.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml

10 days away but loaded with potential for wintry weather - need the lows to slide and set up over the warm waters in the med!

There is always potential when the PV is disorganised - long may it continue.

The peculiar thing is that the more HLB there is the more likely it is to persist. That is why it is good to see it so early in the season - as we know from winters past, once the PV and the attendant zonal train gets into motion, it takes something like a sledge hammer in the form of a major SSW to shift it.

Was certainly tabled in a meeting I had in Bristol this week...

GFS looks like reverting back to a more typical pattern of rain and fairly mild with occasional short-lived settled cooler periods

Still not a zonal picture, just an example of what happens when the UK gets trapped on one side of the meridional flow instead of the other. The blocks are still there, just the positioning is shifted around in the 6z

The cold runs on the 7-day trend didn't last long.

Normal service resumes

Not for us as yet, but look east. Moreover, the long term November outlook from the Met Office is encouraging to say the least.

Yes it looks like it should warm up to around average in around seven days time.

A quick glance at the ICON model (as it is the most up to date at time of writing) shows some notably low 500-1000hPa thicknesses overnight into tomorrow morning. This looks around 512dam here? http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/iconeu_uk1-2-20-0.png?26-13

Edit: Having looked at some of the other models, which have the values around 518dam at the lowest here, this strikes me as a bit of an outlier

You have to remember that it's a trend, not absolute temperature. Today we are starting from a cold starting point, so the temperature trend is to get warmer. Before we were starting from warmth.

Yes, you’re right Rob. 

The models have been quite consistent about the cold that is currently setting in and have been pretty consistent about the recovery to around normal after that. As the days progress the trend will inevitably switch to reflect that as we enter the colder conditions.

I certainly hope day 7 is less cold than today/tomorrow here, as it feels decidedly chilly with the cold wind and showers 

Mid-teens for some parts next weekend 

5th of November & bonfire night daytime temps pushing 17c in one or two isolated spots of the south

Again end of the run but interesting chart pattern wise

Looking increasingly wet as we enter November, and potentially milder than average despite a nagative nao to start.
Conversely there is long term suggestion for cooler trends later in winter.
CFS (just for fun) has changed its tune for Feb-March 2019

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euT2me3Mon.html

I still se above average temps from December, Jan and Feb? what's changed!?  What was CFS going for previously for Feb to March 2019??

For those who like clutching at straws, there's some quite promising snow cover over Siberia

https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

but before that has even a chance of affecting us, charts for the immediate future show a collection of depressions affecting the UK with cold(-ish) rain, especially later on e.g.