The Weather Outlook

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Rob K
19 July 2018 16:28:13
12Z GFS looking very different by T144. Big swings in the models still.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

superteacher
19 July 2018 16:38:48

12Z GFS looking very different by T144. Big swings in the models still.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

But it goes on to be hotter than the 6z.

golfingmad
19 July 2018 16:41:32

 

But it goes on to be hotter than the 6z.

Originally Posted by: superteacher 

Only marginally so far. More importantly, by pushing further back it just means it's less likely to happen (aka mommin "it's not going to happen").

Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
superteacher
19 July 2018 16:43:40

 

Only marginally so far. More importantly, by pushing further back it just means it's less likely to happen (aka mommin "it's not going to happen").

Originally Posted by: golfingmad 

UKMO looks consistent though. A bit IMBY but the SE would be hot to very hot from Wednesday next week on the GFS.

nsrobins
19 July 2018 16:56:00

 

UKMO looks consistent though. A bit IMBY but the SE would be hot to very hot from Wednesday next week on the GFS.

Originally Posted by: superteacher 

Consistant with the UKM text outlook.

FWIW the chances of a 35C in the next few weeks is quite high, especially with the dry soil factor.

Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Shropshire
19 July 2018 17:05:08

Potentially quite cool and wet for Central and Western areas next week, some much needed rain for these parts.

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superteacher
19 July 2018 17:25:04

Potentially quite cool and wet for Central and Western areas next week, some much needed rain for these parts.

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

 

And just for balance, it could also be hot in central areas. Fine lines, but I think the trough will be further west.

KevBrads1
19 July 2018 17:43:59

Potentially quite cool and wet for Central and Western areas next week, some much needed rain for these parts.

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

Wet? 

MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

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Shropshire
19 July 2018 17:55:22

 

Wet? 

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

 

I think we will see the trough pushed further East over subsequent runs, the models are struggling with the evolution. 

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TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
19 July 2018 17:57:50
And that brings our run of consecutive downgrades to 4. Still looking ok for next week, and hot in France.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
19 July 2018 18:17:29
Putting the tea leaves aside for a moment, the big uncertainty for the next week really is cloud amounts. Far more around than earlier in the summer because the polar front jet is closer by, and they are really driving big swings in modelled maxima.

Today was very cloudy here and only managed 27C. Just yesterday the beeb were showing sunshine and 30C. Tomorrow now has a pall of mid level cloud over Kent which may or may not extend as far as SE London. Maxes under the cloud per GFS 19C, in the sunshine 26. 2 days ago on almost identical Synoptics we were looking at 29C.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Arcus
19 July 2018 18:28:11
GEFS 12z are an upgrade IMBY on the 06z in terms of the trough not dropping so far south and allowing the cooler air in for the middle of next week. Taking 25th July as a benchmark date, far more runs are now keep the cooler air away than the 00z and 06z.

Is that an upgrade? Sorry, forgot if the augury rules allow for GEFS and other model runs.

Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
19 July 2018 18:30:57
GEFS P15 is a thing of rare beauty. I particularly like:

- the short slightly cooler but sunny moment mid next week

- the way it keeps looking like it’s going to break down only to get even hotter and more settled

- the way it ends: best 4 summer charts of the, ahem, modern era

P15 says “you thought July was good, wait for August”.

Watch it from the start:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=GFS&var=2&run=12&time=366&lid=P15&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
19 July 2018 18:31:35

GEFS 12z are an upgrade IMBY on the 06z in terms of the trough not dropping so far south and allowing the cooler air in for the middle of next week. Taking 25th July as a benchmark date, far more runs are now keep the cooler air away than the 00z and 06z.

Is that an upgrade? Sorry, forgot if the augury rules allow for GEFS and other model runs.

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

Augury rules apply to op run only.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
superteacher
19 July 2018 18:32:33

Putting the tea leaves aside for a moment, the big uncertainty for the next week really is cloud amounts. Far more around than earlier in the summer because the polar front jet is closer by, and they are really driving big swings in modelled maxima.


Today was very cloudy here and only managed 27C. Just yesterday the beeb were showing sunshine and 30C. Tomorrow now has a pall of mid level cloud over Kent which may or may not extend as far as SE London. Maxes under the cloud per GFS 19C, in the sunshine 26. 2 days ago on almost identical Synoptics we were looking at 29C.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Remember that we are currently in a westerly type flow coming off the Atlantic, so cloud was always going to be variable. And the cloud forecasts by the BBC and Met Office are usually pretty poor.

superteacher
19 July 2018 18:37:34
ECM looking primed for some heat from Wednesday next week.

GFS 12z was one of the coolest runs in the ensemble suite.

Ally Pally Snowman
19 July 2018 18:37:39

ECM looking very hot by day 7

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
19 July 2018 18:43:43

17c 850s by next Friday in the east. Mid 30s surely

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Arcus
19 July 2018 18:48:09
ECM drops a lot more energy south to the west of the UK - good for the heat pump scenario with lots of hot, humid air and thunderstorms, but perhaps not so good longer term.
Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

xioni2
19 July 2018 18:50:53

17c 850s by next Friday in the east. Mid 30s surely

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Raw model values on this run never go above 30C actually and the warmest day is Monday (Friday is cloudy). It does have 36C in Belgium next Friday though and a min of 23C on Thu night in SE England.

 

Weathermac
19 July 2018 18:52:02

 

 

I think we will see the trough pushed further East over subsequent runs, the models are struggling with the evolution. 

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

Not a chance it will be pushed west on subsequent runs the high pressure is stronger.

superteacher
19 July 2018 18:55:26

 

 

Raw model values on this run never go above 30C actually and the warmest day is Monday (Friday is cloudy). It does have 36C in Belgium next Friday though and a min of 23C on Thu night in SE England.

 

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

Add 2-3 to raw values.

The ECM does a GFS and barrels that low across far too quickly. Very odd evolution.

Ally Pally Snowman
19 July 2018 18:55:37

 

Raw model values on this run never go above 30C actually and the warmest day is Monday (Friday is cloudy). It does have 36C in Belgium next Friday though and a min of 23C on Thu night in SE England.

 

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

 

You can normally add 2 or 3c to those temps. But I think cloud amounts might be an issue , but we're very close to something special . 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
19 July 2018 18:57:49

ECM ends on a very settled note with so much hot air around it will soon become roasting under that high. August could be the month to remember this year.

 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
xioni2
19 July 2018 18:59:38

  Add 2-3 to raw values.

Originally Posted by: superteacher 

It's usually 1-2C for the EC.

 

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