The Weather Outlook

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CreweCold
19 July 2018 19:00:15

ECM ends on a very settled note with so much hot air around it will soon become roasting under that high. August could be the month to remember this year.

 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

HP over us is actually one of the routes in which we remain settled but more comfortable in terms of temperatures. As August progresses the feeling of the strength of the sun actually begins to wane as we move further away from the summer solstice. Therefore to see the back of the low to the west, high to the east scenario is good for me 

Crewe, Cheshire

55 metres above sea level

superteacher
19 July 2018 19:02:41

 

It's usually 1-2C for the EC.

 

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

 

And sometimes 4C, so I would take 2-3 as a good guide. 

I'm not doubting what you say, but there is no way Monday would be the hottest day of the week, looking at the synoptics on the ECM.

Ally Pally Snowman
19 July 2018 19:05:43

 

HP over us is actually one of the routes in which we remain settled but more comfortable in terms of temperatures. As August progresses the feeling of the strength of the sun actually begins to wane as we move further away from the summer solstice. Therefore to see the back of the low to the west, high to the east scenario is good for me 

Originally Posted by: CreweCold 

 

I think in a normal year you are correct but just look at the amount of 15+ 850 air in Europe all the way into the Arctic just madness. 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
19 July 2018 19:42:00

 

 

I think in a normal year you are correct but just look at the amount of 15+ 850 air in Europe all the way into the Arctic just madness. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

It was around 33-34C over there and what will impact the sea temperatures bordering the N Scandi coasts? and if will make it harder to be colder by winter months but might help to boost HP over the arctic by winter time.

Polar Low
19 July 2018 19:44:23

Indeed Arcus another insane set for London roasting tea bags

GEFS 12z are an upgrade IMBY on the 06z in terms of the trough not dropping so far south and allowing the cooler air in for the middle of next week. Taking 25th July as a benchmark date, far more runs are now keep the cooler air away than the 00z and 06z.

Is that an upgrade? Sorry, forgot if the augury rules allow for GEFS and other model runs.

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

White Meadows
19 July 2018 19:45:21

 

 

I think we will see the trough pushed further East over subsequent runs, the models are struggling with the evolution. 

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

I think this type of post really proves you’re either;

A. not paying attention

or

B. desperately trying hard to curb excitement with fake news but only misleading people by doing so. 

Exactly the same as in winter. 

superteacher
19 July 2018 19:50:09

I think this type of post really proves you’re either;

A. not paying attention

or

B. desperately trying hard to curb excitement with fake news but only misleading people by doing so. 

Exactly the same as in winter. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

He's been doing it for years under various guises! 

Quite amusing in its own way!

golfingmad
19 July 2018 19:52:47

I think this type of post really proves you’re either;

A. not paying attention

or

B. desperately trying hard to curb excitement with fake news but only misleading people by doing so. 

Exactly the same as in winter. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

The models are struggling with the evolution though. ECM has been more consistent even past T+120 but GFS for example has been all over the place. You may as well try reading tea leaves rather than place any judgement on that model.

 

Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
White Meadows
19 July 2018 19:53:32

 

He's been doing it for years under various guises! 

Quite amusing in its own way!

Originally Posted by: superteacher 

I suppose it’s a bit Pantomime Villain but to the average newbie or spectator reader it adds absolutely nothing to the forum. 

Jiries
19 July 2018 19:53:54

 

 

You can normally add 2 or 3c to those temps. But I think cloud amounts might be an issue , but we're very close to something special . 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

I never record 23C over night here as the highest I recorded was 22C so if that the case 23C over night low then I fully expected to see temps over 36C at least.  This time we need the clouds to sod off (also too much clouds around here for too long now) as they ruined the 38-40C chances in 1st July 2015 as it came deliberately to prevent it from happening.

White Meadows
19 July 2018 19:55:10

 

The models are struggling with the evolution though. ECM has been more consistent even past T+120 but GFS for example has been all over the place. You may as well try reading tea leaves rather than place any judgement on that model.

 

Originally Posted by: golfingmad 

Try sitting out December-Feb with him and you’ll know what we mean.

KevBrads1
19 July 2018 19:59:18

I think this type of post really proves you’re either;

A. not paying attention

or

B. desperately trying hard to curb excitement with fake news but only misleading people by doing so. 

Exactly the same as in winter. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Its the modern summer innocent

MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

golfingmad
19 July 2018 20:03:08

Try sitting out December-Feb with him and you’ll know what we mean.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Well I have read the model threads for quite some time, it's just working abroad you don't really feel comfortable about making any contribution to this thread. Bit silly when your sitting in Riyadh or Jakarta.

I could talk a bit about sand storms and seeing your car dented to pieces by hailstorms in the middle of the Saudi desert, but I'll leave that one out.

 

Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
Polar Low
19 July 2018 20:03:56

it would have to go some Jires to beat the record 23.9 Brighton 3.8.1990 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate-extremes/#?tab=climateExtremes

 

 

I never record 23C over night here as the highest I recorded was 22C so if that the case 23C over night low then I fully expected to see temps over 36C at least.  This time we need the clouds to sod off (also too much clouds around here for too long now) as they ruined the 38-40C chances in 1st July 2015 as it came deliberately to prevent it from happening.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

golfingmad
19 July 2018 20:04:26

 

Its the modern summer innocent

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

Modern summer with tea leaves. Even roasted teabags...

Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
Polar Low
19 July 2018 20:07:47

Smoking tea bags for 1 member sounds better

 

Modern summer with tea leaves. Even roasted teabags...

Originally Posted by: golfingmad 

golfingmad
19 July 2018 20:09:00

Smoking tea bags for 1 member sounds better

 

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

Different guises? Is more than one county involved then?

Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
White Meadows
19 July 2018 20:16:23

 

Different guises? Is more than one county involved then?

Originally Posted by: golfingmad 

different as in many previous alias names banned in times past. 

White Meadows
19 July 2018 20:18:42

 

Well I have read the model threads for quite some time, it's just working abroad you don't really feel comfortable about making any contribution to this thread. Bit silly when your sitting in Riyadh or Jakarta.

I could talk a bit about sand storms and seeing your car dented to pieces by hailstorms in the middle of the Saudi desert, but I'll leave that one out.

 

Originally Posted by: golfingmad 

i’d Love to experience Riyadh. Many of my clients are based there but never been. Just to feel the 48 degrees heat for a few minutes would be something.

Brian Gaze
19 July 2018 20:29:57

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

golfingmad
19 July 2018 20:34:02

i’d Love to experience Riyadh. Many of my clients are based there but never been. Just to feel the 48 degrees heat for a few minutes would be something.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

It is interesting, and you do get used to it. This time of year, 45-49C is quite normal. Temps of 50C or more are not published (i.e. not allowed) as Saudi Labour Law states you can stop working from 50C. However on Riyadh Air Base we had our own screen with all the instruments and 53C plus was normal in August. The hailstones are quite interesting as well.

Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
Jiries
19 July 2018 20:35:55

Brian, it seem this Sunday will see the daily run of 30C plus being reached every single day until August.  With warmer nights and very high day time temps would boost the CET to the record levels.

Polar Low
19 July 2018 20:41:16

Better grouping of very hot members after the 26th definite increase >30c tonight

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0

 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

White Meadows
19 July 2018 20:45:52

 

It is interesting, and you do get used to it. This time of year, 45-49C is quite normal. Temps of 50C or more are not published (i.e. not allowed) as Saudi Labour Law states you can stop working from 50C. However on Riyadh Air Base we had our own screen with all the instruments and 53C plus was normal in August. The hailstones are quite interesting as well.

Originally Posted by: golfingmad 

interesting. I’m sure there’s. Law for place of work temperature in the U.K. but can’t remember the value.

Do you work contracted for the Saudi military?

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