Fingers crossed. I'm definitely one of the people here who enjoys the summer heat!

It been such a long time to see a good summer and happy to return back to recording temperature on my data since I stopped in 2012 due to run of poor summers drove me away from this.  School holidays starting tomorrow and we can safely passed it from getting wash out 2nd half summers as no models showing this.

I’m with you all the way, Jiries & Brian 🔥🌻👍🔥🌞🌞🌞☄️💥💥💥💥💥🔥🔥🔥🔥

  Amazing, really:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/in-pictures-44885493

sorry OT

As expected EC46 update even more blocked and even warmer for August with the high pressure gradually moving westwards over the UK/North Sea.

It has a mean anomaly of 2-2.5C above normal for Aug (pretty rare for an ensemble mean so far out).

Nothing nailed of course.

Up to next weekend 18z is net a better run than 12, after a wobble early next week. 33C in raw output on Sat.

and 35C on Sun.

Then the dartboard.

weve broken the 4 downgrades rule. That’s 5.

Edit - But then the furnace returns. The rule remains intact. Net lower rainfall and higher average temps than 12z

A bit over simplistic to call it a downgrade. Some parts of the run are an upgrade.

Agree, in fact overall it’s better now it’s run the whole distance.

18Z reloads with two separate shots of 35C+ heat. But the drought would end on that run (if it doesn’t later today)

I got a new Davis VP2 on June 20th after returning from a very wet Dordogne. Just realised I have no idea whether the rain collector on it actually works but am expecting to find out today.

You sound confident Brian but won’t the storms be a bit hit and miss?

Backs up what John Hammond is predicting.

Utter nonsense. The GEFS this morning suggest a mostly dry start to August with pressure building and the heat returning. The cooler cluster brings 850s down to about the 30 year mean for 2 days or so, and even that scenario isn't certain at this stage.

He was also very bullish about this weekend and next week being cool and wet in a post on that site a week ago.

He should be fired as he only prefer cool and unsettled weather instead of forecasting the actual outcome or follow the models what shown.  Great ensembles and still showing hot to very hot at times just like August 1995 when 35C was at the start of the month then follow by 30C plus days.  We are now near to the peak of the summer season  Temps here would be ranging from 28C to 33C every day with 35C once or twice.

Yes I should have said "relatively" cooler and wetter. Still far from a washout, and pressure staying reasonably high at least in the southeast. It is starting to look as though the trough might have a little bit more oomph than we (or I anyway) would ideally like, pushing the main thrust of the heat into mainland Europe. The SE quarter should still see some decent warmth though.

I'm looking further than my usual SE parochial view, though, as I am going to Yorkshire for a week in early August.

Me, too (but for a long weekend). I'll look out for you. That is you in your avatar, isn't it? Shouldn't be too hard to spot...

When I read your initial post about the 27th, I did think, "my youngest breaks up on the 26th, so *perfect* timing". Hopefully just a blip and we get back to sunny, dry & settled (I'm not even that bothered about it being hot - mid-20's in fine for me)

John Hammond massively overplayed the depth and length of the cold spell last winter.  He's a necker sticker outer!