Convection does seem to be just spreading out beneath the capping inversion at the moment.
Still clearer along the coast though and I think this is why the high-res models mainly show any heavy or torrential shower development restricted to that area as the convergence zone moves over surfaces that have had more in the way of surface heating.
Speaking of which, the convergence line will likely be drawn very close to the coast due to the relatively weak heating further inland; the sea breeze isn't being drawn in as much as it could have been. I can already see evidence of this in the weather observations which show a SW wind in Bournemouth but a NW wind just about 5 miles inland at Hurn.
Here, it's currently largely cloudy with a bit of a breeze but an air temperature of 24*C thanks to sunny conditions lasting until mid-morning. One of those 'it's warmer than it looks' situations.
Having had a couple of hours without much in the way of direct surface heating, however, the instability is pretty poor in the lowest levels of the atmosphere - I expect it will come down to the lifting of mid-level air parcels to get much going here. Most often this just results in some sporadic light rain but we'll see!
Edited by user
Thursday, July 5, 2018 11:29:01 AM
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Reason: Convergence Line Detail
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