Just had a torrential downpour lasting 20 minutes, today`s rainfall now up to 16.9mm

As I started writing this post there was an enormous crack of thunder together with a bright flash of lightning. The wife and myself almost jumped out of our skins. There was no delay between the lightning and the  thunder, both instantaneous.

ABC - Anywhere But Chichester

There’s been a localised but very slow moving storm over central and NW London for well over an hour now. Here we have blue sky to our East and a dark menacing cloud to the west. We won’t get any rain from this one. But the drought is over for much of the capital.

If it can fizzle out in the next half hour leaving just the cirrostratus outflow, I reckon we’re in for a treat of a sunset.

EDIT: no sign of fizzling out. For a single cell storm this is remarkably long lived. Echoes have been widely 30-40mm per hour, 60+ in places. The outflow is starting spread across the whole of London, ghostbusters-style.

Charlwood near Redhill, Surrey, the MetO wettest station yesterday at 29mm yesterday. Zero here, but you could see a big anvil cloud in the distance in that direction

incredibly focused though 

charlwood 29mm (a few miles south of Reigate and Redhill)

wet pavements on south side of Reigate

nothing on the north side. 

Wouldn't be surprised to see a yellow TSTM warning issued for tomorrow PM - there's a reasonable chance of storms developing ahead of the cold front from SW England/S Wales through Midlands, central N. England and NE England. Risk also later for more organised storms Lincs/Yorks.

As ever, timing of front and isolation/ trigger temps all factors that come into play.

Not looking as promising this morning - a lot of crudvection ahead of the shower line will inhibit the development of a favourable environment.

I take it back. It's quite impressive out there.

A couple of months ago I booked tomorrow for a team barbecue, knowing there’s always a risk of it being washed out.

Well the latest output suggests thundery showers also bang over London for the precise hours of the barbecue. That would be the first meaningful rain here since May. Full on Sod’s law.

Given the totals (11-12mm averaged over a large area per this morning’s GFS) and the spotty nature, I have a feeling we could see some proper crashes and bangs tomorrow in the SE. Just hoping they miss my back garden.

Hope it stays dry for you though and really doesn’t prove Sod’s law.  Or even sodden lawn!   

Anyone with more sense than me able to give an opinion/% chance on this afternoons chances of the South East being hit by thunderstorms and some rain?

The radar looks interesting with precip edging very slowly north westwards.

We are currently being squeezed by a weak trough over SE England with some light rain and an upper trough coming SE which is edging from the NW. The instability created by these features should trigger scattered showers and storms in the gap across the South and SE UK this afternoon and evening with the risk extending to the SW overnight. It hasn't developed yet but its all about potential. Some will be lucky I hope ;)

More sense than you? Yeah - reckon I qualify  

My feeling is that the activity will be to the north and west of us today. The weedy system that's spun up from the south is too close and has thrown quite a lot of cloud ahead of the rain, so I don't know if we'll get the convection potential in Surrey or London as if it had been clearer / hotter. My prediction would be the Chilterns down into North Hampshire.

We'll see how that turns out.