A way off yet, but Friday looks pretty good - a shallow low in the SE with a trough down the spine of the country that doesn't move much during the day. Much can change, but worth keeping an eye on:

GFS more keen on Thursday afternoon than Friday itself for showers/storms over central areas, but it has been pushing the fronts in that bit quicker than ECM in recent runs. Time will tell...

Very murky just to the west of here - shows up well on the radar - looks to be a very localised intense downpour!

Edit: 14.12 .. it soon decayed but shows up well on the 13.50 Meto radar.

I’m with you. Forget comfort or aesthetics, all that matters now is the stats. The drier the better. Until September 2019 just after Dominic Raab gets made minister for drought.

That not good thing since people would be too busy discussing it while outside is hot and sunny with near record high temps.  Notice it would be 3rd Friday on the trot with hit and miss storms.

Just in time for my annual camping trip 

Changes on the faxes, as expected:

00z Friday (can see the potential storm risk on Thursday for NE Eng/E Scotland, also CS Eng, though potentially more capped here):

12z Friday (actually more of a concession to GFS rather than ECM, but matches MetO warnings quite well):

Ben Rich was making a big thing about Friday on the 2155 forecast. His charts clearly showed a new frontal system developing in situ across central England during Friday, quite separate from the fronts associated with the low out west.

The potential is there on Friday afternoon and evening for widespread torrential thunderstorms, particularly from the Midlands northwards with some serious amounts of rain across the spine of England which could cause flash flooding. Localised disruption is expected. Central southern areas may see some isolated storms but look likely to miss out on most of the action.

The far east of England and the SE also largely miss out. That said one or two very localised but intense storms likely to develop in East Anglia both tomorrow and Thursday.

Potential for another round of significant convective activity in central areas on Monday as the next Atlantic low moves in. Again the far SE may largely miss out.

Then from midweek the heat starts to build again in the south.

Plenty of convective activity to look out for over the next few days.

Yes I agree - matches what I said in Model Output thread about the daughter shallow low forming (ECM) and advecting the warm air westward..  I saw the same forecast and it looked very similar - but it's all about the timing on these things, and that can change rapidly in the run up with either disturbances not coming to fruition, or fronts/troughs being delayed or advancing more quickly.

Agreed these things are hard to pin down at this distance.

For example the 18Z ICON shows a rather limp band of rain on Friday across central areas

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/runs/2018072418/iconeu_uk1-1-69-0.png?24-23

The front becomes more active once it exits into the North Sea

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/runs/2018072418/iconeu_uk1-1-81-0.png?24-23

Also shows some rather potent frontal rain for western areas on Sunday

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/runs/2018072418/iconeu_uk1-1-117-0.png?24-23

Could be some welcome rain for some in the next few days.

Sadly the areas in the south and SE that need it most look likely to largely miss out with many seeing no more than 5mm at best

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/runs/2018072418/iconeu_uk1-25-120-0.png?24-23

After a few runs of relative diffidence, GFS is finally picking upon Friday's potential. Tomorrow afternoon also still has (lower) potential for some isolated storms for some:

Thursday PM:

Friday PM:

26.4c

It's raining in Gildersome now and the sky is ugly looking!

First storm of the day has shot up very quickly between Derby and Nottingham - sferics showing already.