moomin75
22 April 2018 21:06:44

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 


 


Even in 2007 and 2008 somewhere in the UK reached 30C, so I very much doubt that.


I really don't know what you think you're achieving moomin with your relentless cynical attitude. Try being positive for a change! 


Sorry - it was more a question than a pessimistic summer is over post....I'm not suggesting it will happen, but would be possible surely? I wonder if it's ever happened before that April provided the hottest day of a calendar year?


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
moomin75
23 April 2018 06:00:15

One thing is for certain on the GFS. That 6z is showing us being stuck in a major rut of northern blocking and a southerly tracking jet.
Not so bad up north but for the south a protracted spell of cool and very changeable weather if that verifies. No end in sight within the entire 16 days. When that happens with no sign of improvement it's normally a bad sign.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
doctormog
23 April 2018 06:48:58
I’m not sure I would agree about not so bad up north as it looks as bad or worse here on the GFS?

At least there have been a few decent days in the last week or so otherwise the outlook would be rather depressing.
Gavin D
23 April 2018 07:01:47

ECM and GFS 00z's are miles apart once again for early May ECM goes for a better start with high pressure moving in whilst GFS goes for a fairly miserable start


ECMOPEU00_216_1.thumb.png.1dce82e99cc3dad6d0bd6c130e3bd459.pngECMOPEU00_240_1.thumb.png.767c6011ed870041f112d1e1a561c5cd.png


GFSOPEU00_216_1.thumb.png.d5c47125d22410238a0735d57e7d6fd4.pngGFSOPEU00_240_1.thumb.png.ef12911c232d5eb8b1a57ba951dd9e78.png

Northern Sky
23 April 2018 07:55:37

A showery week to come, cooler obviously but by no means a washout. Next weekend looks at the moment to be a bit of a no mans land with a slack pressure gradient, particularly on the ECM. Not warm but I imagine it would feel pretty nice in any sunshine with maybe some chilly nights.

bledur
23 April 2018 08:18:59

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Sorry - it was more a question than a pessimistic summer is over post....I'm not suggesting it will happen, but would be possible surely? I wonder if it's ever happened before that April provided the hottest day of a calendar year?



 


 it's ever happened before that April provided the hottest day of a calendar year?


 


 Cant see any record of that on interweb. Saying that because we have had a hot spell in April means we wont have another hot spell from May to October does not make a lot of sense.. In December , was this just past hot spell forecast?

doctormog
23 April 2018 16:16:19

Originally Posted by: bledur 


 


 


 it's ever happened before that April provided the hottest day of a calendar year?


 


 Cant see any record of that on interweb. Saying that because we have had a hot spell in April means we wont have another hot spell from May to October does not make a lot of sense.. In December , was this just past hot spell forecast?



I may be wrong but I think the 14th of May (28.9°C at Kensington Palace in 1965) is the earliest date in the year for the highest annual maximum.


Gavin D
23 April 2018 16:26:46

12z UKMO shows high-pressure building for the northern half of the country at t144 winds from the east again so the potential for cloud and or fog down that side but the chance of something brighter further west NW Scotland could be one of the favored spots


UKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.e1d389bd2507cf80917d41f68695f987.png


Brian Gaze
23 April 2018 18:01:48


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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idj20
23 April 2018 18:28:27

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 






Spot the Kent Rain Deflector.  


Folkestone Harbour. 
Gavin D
24 April 2018 07:47:56

Just as GFS drops the deep lows for early May


GFSOPEU00_240_1.thumb.png.44664676eebc4f7550375708376780e3.png


ECM picks up that idea


ECMOPEU00_240_1.thumb.png.c79e31fe3f9de9e284a0f2dc271f2585.png


GEM also goes the settled route for early May


GEMOPEU00_240_1.thumb.png.17e0d6272b3f009501e1036e35bac5ba.png


Downpour
24 April 2018 07:51:59
GFS is the trendsetter/form horse/one to watch

(Insert cliche here!)
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Gavin P
24 April 2018 08:53:10

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 





 


Sunday Deluge still there on the 00z GFS as well.


 


Looks rather alarming! 


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
tierradelfuego
24 April 2018 17:20:41
6z GFS was even worse, up at around 110mm rain accumulated in the Midlands by the end of Sunday, 12z is better at "only" 60mm or so, 20mm of that falling on Sunday itself. Less down here in the South at around 30mm accumulated.

MO not buying it though on their forecasts at least, with a small chance of a shower on Sunday as it stands. ECM not buying it either with the LP having moved out East by Sunday.
Bucklebury
West Berkshire Downs AONB
135m ASL
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
25 April 2018 05:59:45

Originally Posted by: tierradelfuego 



MO not buying it though on their forecasts at least, with a small chance of a shower on Sunday as it stands. ECM not buying it either with the LP having moved out East by Sunday.


 


MetO charts look as if Sunday's predicted rain will be further south, over the french/Belgian border. But all the main models now agree on a small and very wet depression crossing the southern half of England and Wales on Friday


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
25 April 2018 17:51:28

.


 


Southern and Southeastern UK this Friday looks like heavy rain and windy with cool weather about and active Tropical RPM Low Pressure.


Another similar mix of weather is forecasted by the UKMO and the GFS for the upcoming Sunday and Monday, for East Anglia and SE England with chilly cool windy Low Pressure, there could be heavy thundery showers with this.


For the 120 and 144hrs Monday cool with blustery showers NW winds, and SW then NW winds on Tuesday with further Low Pressure and heavy thundery rain quite possible, heavy thundery showers quite likely- both the GFS and UKMO show it happening.


Things may remain with unsettled even on the Wednesday 2nd, as we may be holding on to cool Low Pressure with a few more showers around.


Tomorow's weather in SE and South England should not be as wet and showery as today.  Not many showers today in my area but one isolated short thunder and lightning on 1 occasion did happen a short while ago.


.


The ECMWF Model needs to sort out the forecast for this Sunday and Monday as well as Tuesday and Wednesday- by Wednesday things could start calming down, and certainly chance of some fine high pressure by Thursday 3rd May.


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
fairweather
25 April 2018 23:11:50

Originally Posted by: LA2B MeridFlowEuro09 


.


 


Southern and Southeastern UK this Friday looks like heavy rain and windy with cool weather about and active Tropical RPM Low Pressure.


Another similar mix of weather is forecasted by the UKMO and the GFS for the upcoming Sunday and Monday, for East Anglia and SE England with chilly cool windy Low Pressure, there could be heavy thundery showers with this.


For the 120 and 144hrs Monday cool with blustery showers NW winds, and SW then NW winds on Tuesday with further Low Pressure and heavy thundery rain quite possible, heavy thundery showers quite likely- both the GFS and UKMO show it happening.


Things may remain with unsettled even on the Wednesday 2nd, as we may be holding on to cool Low Pressure with a few more showers around.


Tomorow's weather in SE and South England should not be as wet and showery as today.  Not many showers today in my area but one isolated short thunder and lightning on 1 occasion did happen a short while ago.


.


The ECMWF Model needs to sort out the forecast for this Sunday and Monday as well as Tuesday and Wednesday- by Wednesday things could start calming down, and certainly chance of some fine high pressure by Thursday 3rd May.



Great - can't wait for my long awaited bird watching and photographic holiday in Norfolk from Friday till Wednesday 


S.Essex, 42m ASL
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
26 April 2018 06:21:21

An awful lot of rain in the south on Friday, especially the SW (though HIRLAM says all across the south)


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/hirlam.aspx?run=00&charthour=0&chartname=ukprecipacc&chartregion=na-region&charttag=Precip%20total 


Then again on Sunday, with Arpege moving the focus to central S England


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/arpege.aspx?run=na&charthour=102&chartname=ukprecipratec&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=Precip%20rate


Contrary to my post above, MetO now falling in line with other models and predicting the heaviest of Sunday's rain in SE England.


I'd expect to see warnings for heavy rain appearing.


 


If by Monday that depression is bringing in yet more rain from the N Sea on a north-easterly, it'll be notably cold; not only is the N sea cold but further upwind, Norway is still completely covered in snow as is most of Sweden.


http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif


 


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
26 April 2018 06:45:31

No escaping the fact that the outlook is poor. Cool and wet sums it up for at least the next 7 to 10 days. Met office suggesting the weather will improve as we go through May no real sign of that yet.


 


 



Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
speckledjim
26 April 2018 06:54:13

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


No escaping the fact that the outlook is poor. Cool and wet sums it up for at least the next 7 to 10 days. Met office suggesting the weather will improve as we go through May no real sign of that yet.


 


 




 


ECM suggesting an improvement from 3rd May....fingers crossed


Thorner, West Yorkshire


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