Looking at the models, it seems this upcoming cool period from Monday onwards countrywide is likely to be quite long lasting? One assumes the Bank Holiday weekend and beyond will continue the cool/cold trend.

Great to see ECM going for another spell of settled weather to develop later next week

That has been a welcome change. Let's hope other models pick up on this trend. We have had more than enough cold and wet.

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lets hope GFS picks up this trend too but still early days I presume

Great to see ECM going for another spell of settled weather to develop later next week

 

Crap place for the high to locate, if you're in the northern half of the country

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As noted above, it looks as though this week's warm spell is likely to be something of a flash in the pan with cooler and more unsettled weather returning next week.

Mind you, the lack of any sustained warmth this spring thus far might be no bad thing, as during the last decade or so we have had a number of springs with sustained warm and dry spells which were then followed by mediocre summers.

 

Considering just how stonkingly better than the normal weather for mid-April this little spell as been, I see little point in reading anything into it. I mean 29C yesterday in London - you should have seen the banks of the Thames - you had to book ahead to get a drinking spot by the river wall the whole Southbank from Tate Modern to the Eye!

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A long way out but the Bank Holiday would end cold and wintry for many if the GFS 00z verified:

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A long way out but the Bank Holiday would end cold and wintry for many if the GFS 00z verified:

Its been an interesting spring thus far for sure, bitter cold, snow, sleet and a mini heatwave. Hopefully May doesn’t turn into a washout. 🙂

Its been an interesting spring thus far for sure, bitter cold, snow, sleet and a mini heatwave. Hopefully May doesn’t turn into a washout. 🙂

It's an '8' year. Of course it will. 😂😂😟

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It's an '8' year. Of course it will. 😂😂😟

I was looking at the latest JMA Friday update which Gavin P. does every week and according to that, May might actually end up being not too bad if that comes anywhere close to coming off, especially towards the south of the UK.

In those videos, Gavin P. shows the four week output from both the JMA and the CFS models and out of those, the CFS appeared to be the more promising of the two with the JMA being that bit more unsettled during the second week.

In this scenario for the general outlook which has been shown, Scotland would be more likely to be unsettled but with a zonal flow in place, I wouldn't expect it to be any wetter than average here in Edinburgh during that period.

 

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An average sort of week with a westerly flow coming up but it looks as if we will pay for the recent splendid weather with a cold and wet spell in the first week of May 

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 for precipitation

GFS and ECM for synoptics showing a cold low pressure centering itself over or close to the UK by T+240

Just hope it manages to clear in time for the bank holiday

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An average sort of week with a westerly flow coming up but it looks as if we will pay for the recent splendid weather with a cold and wet spell in the first week of May 

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 for precipitation

GFS and ECM for synoptics showing a cold low pressure centering itself over or close to the UK by T+240

Just hope it manages to clear in time for the bank holiday

Which goes to show why Gavin P is always absolutely spot on to say take anything longer range with a huge pinch of salt. The JMA Friday roundup showing an OK May may be right but it certainly doesn't look like it will. I think that most of the time the longer range models show nothing in the future accurately but just reflect what is happening right now. Thankfully, unlike any other forecaster I know, Gav is always very realistic. Long may that continue. One of the top forecasters out there. I always head to his site before any of the main stream. Keep up the good work Gav.

I really fear for May. Looks like we are heading for another rut. I hope not!!

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Definitely looking cool and showery for the foreseeable...
The thought of grey cool damp conditions throughout May makes me shudder...

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Definitely looking cool and showery for the foreseeable...
The thought of grey cool damp conditions throughout May makes me shudder...

Indeed. Models can and do change obviously, but we look in real danger of being stuck in yet another miserable rut for several days if not more. 

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Indeed. Models can and do change obviously, but we look in real danger of being stuck in yet another miserable rut for several days if not more. 

 

Agree Gfs is poor but ecm is not nearly as bad. And what  Im noticing more is the heat build up to our south looks more like June heat than late April. Any kind of southerly will be an extremely  warm one .

 

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Agree Gfs is poor but ecm is not nearly as bad. And what  Im noticing more is the heat build up to our south looks more like June heat than late April. Any kind of southerly will be an extremely  warm one .

 

Well ECM 12z is pretty woeful. Big question to me is, have we just had the hottest spell of 2018? Wouldn't rule it out. AND no that isn't a summer is over post but there are some years where we don't hit 28-29c and we just have, so it could be in theory possible that is the hottest spell of the year. 

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Well ECM 12z is pretty woeful. Big question to me is, have we just had the hottest spell of 2018? Wouldn't rule it out. AND no that isn't a summer is over post but there are some years where we don't hit 28-29c and we just have, so it could be in theory possible that is the hottest spell of the year. 

 

That's very pessimistic Moomin. But you never know, what I would say is southern Europe is already hot so any southerly will be very warm from now on.

 

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Well ECM 12z is pretty woeful. Big question to me is, have we just had the hottest spell of 2018? Wouldn't rule it out. AND no that isn't a summer is over post but there are some years where we don't hit 28-29c and we just have, so it could be in theory possible that is the hottest spell of the year. 

Even in 2007 and 2008 somewhere in the UK reached 30C, so I very much doubt that.

I really don't know what you think you're achieving moomin with your relentless cynical attitude. Try being positive for a change! 

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Even in 2007 and 2008 somewhere in the UK reached 30C, so I very much doubt that.

I really don't know what you think you're achieving moomin with your relentless cynical attitude. Try being positive for a change! 

The weather has been quite interesting this year and a propensity for a displaced or weak jet can lead to some quite extreme synoptics as with the recent warm spell and March's bitter easterlies.

If we see more of the same I would speculate that we may get some real heat at times this summer. That's as likely as an ark scenario.

 

 

The weather has been quite interesting this year and a propensity for a displaced or weak jet can lead to some quite extreme synoptics as with the recent warm spell and March's bitter easterlies.

If we see more of the same I would speculate that we may get some real heat at times this summer. That's as likely as an ark scenario.

 

Indeed. With a meandering, slow moving jetstream it all depends on where the country sits relative to the troughs and ridges.

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