BBC monthly outlook
Wednesday 4 April—Sunday 8 April
Often wet, but milder this weekend
Wednesday will remain unsettled, as low pressure tracks steadily north-east across England and Wales. This will bring outbreaks of rain to northern Britain, with upland snow developing widely across the Scottish mountains. Fairly widespread showers are expected to develop across central and southern areas, some of which will be heavy with small hail and thunder. Overnight, showers will ease, and rain will slowly ease from central Britain, allowing it to turn dry with clearing skies for many areas.
Thursday will be much drier, as a ridge of high pressure moves across the country. There will be sunny periods and fair-weather cloud for many areas, although Scotland will see thicker cloud with the risk of a few showers developing here. Any sunshine will turn increasingly hazy from the west later, as high cloud begins to build ahead of an advancing warm front. This will bring a cloudier afternoon to Northern Ireland, with a few spots of rain developing here later. Overnight, a south-easterly wind will strengthen, and a slow-moving band of rain will move into western Britain.
By Friday, low pressure looks to remain near-stationary to the west of the UK, with a mild south-easterly airflow continuing. Patchy frontal rain is expected to make little progress east, perhaps bringing some rain towards Central Britain.
By this weekend, low pressure is expected to remain to the west or south-west of the UK, with spells of rain most likely to push into southern and central Britain from the south. Temperatures remaining a touch above average this weekend.
Monday 9 April—Sunday 15 April
Gradually turning drier and more settled
Low pressure is expected to provide rather wet and cloudy conditions across the southern portion of the country, especially during the first few days of the week. Some of the rain may be heavy and persistent. At the same time, high pressure is expected to become increasingly dominant to the north-east of the UK, with a cooler easterly or north-easterly airflow developing across northern Britain in particular. Largely dry conditions are expected to prevail here for much of the week, although weakening frontal systems from the north-west may encroach upon north-west Scotland, perhaps bringing some patchy rain here. Once early rain eases from southern Britain, it will become drier here, as frontal systems recede to the south-west of the UK. Northern and eastern Britain are likely to see the best of the sunshine, and also the driest conditions.
Monday 16 April—Tuesday 29 May (May? 
)
Cool, but perhaps settled for a time
Longer range models indicate the continued migration of high pressure towards the UK during the middle of April. Although the exact pattern will very much be dependent on the orientation of the high, current indications are for an easterly or perhaps south-easterly airflow to continue for the UK. Rather dry conditions are expected to predominate, with frontal systems expected to remain to the south-west of the UK by this point, and temperatures are expected to remain slightly above average. As we look towards the final week of April, there are some signs that high pressure will move away from the UK, allowing low pressure to become anchored near to our shores. There are signals too for temperatures to dip below average, with an increasing threat of more widespread rain. Inevitably, the increasing strength of the sun may allow some heavy showers to develop too - a stark contrast to the drier weather expected through the middle of April!
Next Update
Will we see a more noticeable cold spell develop towards the end of this month?
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Edited by user
04 April 2018 11:41:25
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