BBC monthly outlook
Monday 18 June—Sunday 24 June
Warm in the south. Some rain for the north.
On Monday and Tuesday, north-western areas of the UK, including Scotland, Northern Ireland, north-west England and north-west Wales are likely to be breezy with a lot of cloud at times together with patchy rain. Western Scotland could see some more prolonged and heavier outbreaks of rain. Meanwhile, further south and east across the UK, it will be mainly dry with some periods of sunshine and becoming warmer too with highs rising to the mid to high 20s Celsius in places. For the rest of the week, the day to day details become a little more uncertain. However, the overall story will remain the same, with central and southern areas of the UK having a lot of dry and warm weather, probably with some strong sunshine at times. Temperatures are likely to be quite widely into the low to mid-20s Celsius. Further north, it is likely to be breezy at times and less warm with patchy rain but one or two drier days as well.
Monday 25 June—Sunday 1 July
Less warm for a time. Patchy rain spreading south.
For the last week of June, indications are that high pressure is likely to move a little further away, allowing some rain-bearing fronts to move in from the north-west. Therefore, a couple of bands of rain could be expected to spread south-eastwards across the UK. However, the rain could be quite patchy by the time it reaches southern and eastern areas of England. Temperatures are expected to take a tumble for at least a few days, with temperatures falling near or perhaps even slightly below the seasonal average. However, towards the end of the week, we may begin to see high pressure extending north-eastwards again towards the UK. Therefore, there are growing chances of drier, calmer and somewhat warmer conditions re-emerging before the end of the week. Indeed, there may be a change to drier and more settled weather even for northern areas of the UK by then. The main uncertainty is on the timing and extent of any cooler and damper conditions over the UK. Indeed, there do seem to be some chances that high pressure holds across much of the UK, which would lead to a much drier and calmer week over large parts of the country than is currently anticipated.
Monday 2 July—Sunday 15 July
Plenty of settled weather. Generally warm.
Current indications for the first half of July point towards often dry and settled conditions over the UK with some decent periods of summery weather. The reason for this outlook is that an area of high pressure is likely to be often somewhere near, or over, the UK, keeping rain-bearing low pressure areas well to the south and north of the country. Overall, temperatures are expected to be slightly above the seasonal average over the UK with rainfall amounts probably below normal. Indeed, the lack of rainfall could start to become a concern for gardeners. There should also be a lack of windy days. However, the exact positioning of any high pressure areas will dictate the day to day temperatures. High pressure would occasionally be expected to move away westwards to allow a few breezier and cooler episodes of weather to develop in what is expected to be an often warm and dry spell. However, there is also the chance that high pressure occasionally sits overhead or just east of the UK to bring a few hot days at times.
Next Update
We will take another look to see whether central and southern areas could see any significant rainfall before the end of the month or whether it is likely to just end up being mostly dry. And we will look for any clues where the anticipated high pressure areas may end up in early July, which will govern the temperatures then and the chances of any hot weather.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook