Yes Steve, your new home in Buxton looks likely to get a lot of snow next week! 😂😂😂❄️😉

Amazing output, especially for us in the NW again this morning. I see Buxton on my weather app is forecasting heavy snow for 4 days starting on Tuesday. 

Longer term there even appears to be some interest for those lads down in the SE as that trough edges into southern Europe and heights rise over Scandinavia. 

Loving the new sig, Steve

Each time I open TWO in the morning now, it's with trepidation. I dread seeing the word 'shortwave', especially when used in the same sentence as 'develops a', 'warm sector' and 'UK'.

GFS is another fantastically snowy run for large parts of northern and western Britain, especially over the hills.

Deep falls likely in places with strong convective opportunities allowing for the potential for thundersnow. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_126_1.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_126_2.png

 

Love your positive posts Joe, they cheer me up. So much better than the negativity of some posters. I agree with your prognosis and think the direction of airflow next week will push those showers through the central lowlands to Edinburgh 😁

It's been mentioned already, but troughs are very(?) likely to be embedded in the circulation around a chunk of PV. We all might well be surprised.

Yes.... I would expect disturbances and troughs to appear as we get closer that give areas away from the favoured spots of the north-west something more interesting than patchy sleet. Elevation will still be important given temperatures. 

 

 

Loving the new sig, Steve

 

Each time I open TWO in the morning now, it's with trepidation. I dread seeing the word 'shortwave', especially when used in the same sentence as 'develops a', 'warm sector' and 'UK'.

 

ECM was keen on developing a satellite runner low that spun in over the UK the middle of next week (with the associated warm sector!), but seems to have dropped the idea for now. The overnight ICON fancies the idea though:

The model op runs look pretty good to me this monring, probably as good as they have done at any point this winter so far.

The model op runs look pretty good to me this monring, probably as good as they have done at any point this winter so far.

Did Steve move to Buxton for improved snow prospects!? Norway would be a better option!

The piece of the vortex needs to exit south and east as fast as possible and not get flabby as we see in some of the output . Milder westerlies will mix out the  cold for the south

Did Steve move to Buxton for improved snow prospects!? Norway would be a better option!

The piece of the vortex needs to exit south and east as fast as possible and not get flabby as we see in some of the output . Milder westerlies will mix out the  cold for the south

For comparison....

2010:

Today:

 

I'd be amazed if you get several near ice days next week. Even a long fetch northerly seems to bring daytime temps between 5C and 7C to areas south of London in January.

Oops! Sloppy posting on my part 

I was looking at http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html and referring to the second chart (20-28 Jan) as 'next' week

For comparison....

 

2010:

 

Today:

looks like it has been cut and pasted.  Those cold rows for the next 10 days are pretty well set in stone now. The end looks a little scattered, but at that range it is quite normal to see, however quite a few members very cold out into Lalaland. 

It's been mentioned already, but troughs are very(?) likely to be embedded in the circulation around a chunk of PV. We all might well be surprised.

Exactly my thoughts. It's a long, long time since we've had a genuinely cold NW'ly polar maritime. With cold holding for at least a week it will be very interesting to see how it pans out compared to these situations 30 years ago. Disturbances are likely and back then could certainly bring some heavy snow showers even to the south although settling would be an issue probably.

 

Exactly my thoughts. It's a long, long time since we've had a genuinely cold NW'ly polar maritime. With cold holding for at least a week it will be very interesting to see how it pans out compared to these situations 30 years ago. Disturbances are likely and back then could certainly bring some heavy snow showers even to the south although settling would be an issue probably.

Agree. Having said that we need to agree what conditions were like in the Jan 84 "snowfest". As noted recently I have no recollection of significant snow during that month in York. 

 

Exactly my thoughts. It's a long, long time since we've had a genuinely cold NW'ly polar maritime. With cold holding for at least a week it will be very interesting to see how it pans out compared to these situations 30 years ago. Disturbances are likely and back then could certainly bring some heavy snow showers even to the south although settling would be an issue probably.

GFS 06z is showing a nice disturbance at 126 hrs

What's going on here then? Temps up to 12 or 13c in far SW on Wednesday!:

 

Love your positive posts Joe, they cheer me up. So much better than the negativity of some posters. I agree with your prognosis and think the direction of airflow next week will push those showers through the central lowlands to Edinburgh 😁

Best not confuse a realistic appraisal of projected conditions with negativity, but I agree I enjoy Joe's enthusiasm

And speaking of realism, the projected freezing level (one of the myriad of parameters of course) ranges from 200m in Scotland to 800m in the far SW for much of next week. This should be fine for places with height but with the low altitude and proximity to maritime modification areas near the W coast and generally in the South will need intensity and nocturnal temperature dips to get snow down to ground level. All subject to change of course.

 

GFS 06z is showing a nice disturbance at 126 hrs

Be careful what you wish for. As others have said, the conditions are only conducive to possible snow because of the direct nature of the flow of cold air. Start introducing disturbances and it lessens that - especially any sort of circulation that would inevitably mix in milder air.