Agree. Having said that we need to agree what conditions were like in the Jan 84 "snowfest". As noted recently I have no recollection of significant snow during that month in York. 

Early Jan 1984 I was moving house and snow was around then but memory fading for details.

Since December 2010 around these parts Dave.😎

I'd argue that in both Jan and Mar 13 there were much better charts (even if you didn't receive much snow)

I've got huge concerns that this spell isn't going to bring lying snow to the majority in the north west (in terms of population) as Merseyside/West Lancs/Gtr Manc/Cheshire below 200m asl (which is about 75% of the NW's population) misses out.

The best output suggests the right side of marginal, but other output has us on the wrong side - and disturbances/shortwaves would tip the balance further against us.

I'd rate lying snow chances at 25% for St Helens & Manchester, perhaps as much as 50% for you, somewhat less than 25% for Wirral Russ.

 

 

I'd argue that in both Jan and Mar 13 there were much better charts (even if you didn't receive much snow)

I've got huge concerns that this spell isn't going to bring lying snow to the majority in the north west (in terms of population) as Merseyside/West Lancs/Gtr Manc/Cheshire below 200m asl (which is about 75% of the NW's population) misses out.

The best output suggests the right side of marginal, but other output has us on the wrong side - and disturbances/shortwaves would tip the balance further against us.

I'd rate lying snow chances at 25% for St Helens & Manchester, perhaps as much as 50% for you, somewhat less than 25% for Wirral Russ.

 

 

 

 

Be careful what you wish for. As others have said, the conditions are only conducive to possible snow because of the direct nature of the flow of cold air. Start introducing disturbances and it lessens that - especially any sort of circulation that would inevitably mix in milder air.

 

But don't forget that a vigorous LP system with intense precipitation changes the parameters, as happened with both snowfalls in December. Provided you're North of the warm sector it ought to be OK, all things being equal. Plus you'd have an easterly or northerly component to the wind direction?

Of course at this range the track will change.

It's interesting though, given the discussions in here a day or two ago about GFS not having shown any disturbances forming along the sharp temperature gradient on the southern flank of the LP.  ECM had shown something similar but then shifted it south.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_201_1.png

Could an easterly actually be on the cards??

For a couple of days I've been watching the predicted behaviour of the LP around Newfoundland next weekend, the jetstream profile and the Azores High.  If we're to get an easterly, or a more blocked pattern generally, then I think we need to see the right signals across the Atlantic. At the moment I'm not sure - the ridge northwards is just moving eastwards under renewed pressure from the jetstream but it could evolve OK given the upper heights to the north.

Feb. 1984 was very cold and snowy after the big chunk of PV settled down over France/Germany/+ 

Early Jan 1984 I was moving house and snow was around then but memory fading for details.

I'm bloody awful at pinning dates to snowfalls, but I remember this one. I'd broken my arm playing rugby for the school sometime around end of Nov/beginning of Dec. First game back was in Jan on a Saturday morning, I got caught at the bottom of a ruck, and had the same arm stamped on. Pain was intense and my wrist swelled up to twice normal size. Back to the hospital where before I'd had x-rays the doctor told me I'd broken it. I promptly threw up - another month in plaster! X-rays revealed no break, but a ruptured muscle & badly bruised bone. Relief. By the time I got home, it was snowing & settling. When my mates called, I remember not being allowed out to play in the snow (I was 11, nearly 12) because I had my arm strapped up.

Wasn't the last time it snowed that winter, because I've got another memory of being in high school in my 1st year and being part of a group of about 100 pupils stood at the front of the school grounds one break and pelting passing busses & lorries with snowballs. The headmaster - real old school; always wore a black cape! - came running out shouting at us all to stop where we were. Everyone ran, but guess which numpty slipped on his arse? He was quick for someone in their 60's and by the time I'd scrambled to my feet, he was about 20 yards away. I made to scarper and he roared "Don't you dare, boy!". So I stopped and accepted my fate, being surprised and relieved that it consisted only of being lectured for a minute on the stupidity of throwing snowballs at vehicles.

Am i right in thinking that next weeks spell of potential wintry weather will affect western Scotland as well as the N/W of England, as i have fair bit of driving to do around these areas next week.............may need to alter my plans if so ❄️ ❄️

I'd phrase it "will affect western Scotland way more than the N/W of England"

Feb. 1984 was very cold and snowy after the big chunk of PV settled down over France/Germany/+ 

Early Jan 1984 I was moving house and snow was around then but memory fading for details.

I have some photos taken on the West Highland railway line in late January 1984 in a book on trains that I have, and the amount of snow in the photos was copious. Will try and post them up in another thread when I get the time.

 

For a couple of days I've been watching the predicted behaviour of the LP around Newfoundland next weekend, the jetstream profile and the Azores High.  If we're to get an easterly, or a more blocked pattern generally, then I think we need to see the right signals across the Atlantic. At the moment I'm not sure - the ridge northwards is just moving eastwards under renewed pressure from the jetstream but it could evolve OK given the upper heights to the north.

Something like the NASA run would do!

Feb. 1984 was very cold and snowy after the big chunk of PV settled down over France/Germany/+ 

Early Jan 1984 I was moving house and snow was around then but memory fading for details.

I agree with Saint and would rather keep the clean NW’ly flow 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_132_2.png

These sort of things are bound to crop up though. 

 

 

Something like the NASA run would do!

 

 

 

Something like the NASA run would do!

 

Yes, something vaguely along those lines....

I should add that the hugh chunk of PV over the near continent was/is considered an extreme unusual event.

Yes, very unusual indeed. If you look at the strength, and particularly the source of the winds next week (directly from Greenland) the windchill will be significant. To have such a persistent, cold West/Northwesterly in January is also very unusual and even allowing for the Atlantic moderating the airmass, I reckon the daytime 2m temperatures will still be hovering around 0C for a good part of the country.   

For me cold without snow is like heat without sun, pointless. 

Or putting it another way cold without snow is like sex without orgasm...