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The GFS often overdoes these little circulations, but the 132-144hr period on this run would give an absolute pasting to the Midlands.
Of course, further south the dreaded w*** s***** would be in evidence, but you need these systems to get snow well inland so it's worth the risk!
The GFS often overdoes these little circulations, but the 132-144hr period on this run would give an absolute pasting to the Midlands. Of course, further south the dreaded w*** s***** would be in evidence, but you need these systems to get snow well inland so it's worth the risk!
I'd not be unhappy with that specific scenario! I think more the northern half of the Midlands and into NW England. Here's 6 hours before your chart:
Those nice kinks in the isobars... mmmm...
Agree. Having said that we need to agree what conditions were like in the Jan 84 "snowfest". As noted recently I have no recollection of significant snow during that month in York.
Living in Mid Staffs at the time we had several notable snowfalls that month, although I don't remember the snow hanging around for days on end.
Do I detect a slight weakening in the LP after mid week compared to 0h?
Met office maps have updated for Jan the next 3 monthly period of Feb to April looks mild and unsettled
I'd not be unhappy with that specific scenario! I think more the northern half of the Midlands and into NW England. Here's 6 hours before your chart:Those nice kinks in the isobars... mmmm...
Difference couldn't be more different in FI - Gone from bitterly cold easterly with snow showers to the pest from the west'. on 06z run. Could have been more different if it tried!
Very snowy event for M4 north upto about Manchester. obviously won't happen exactly as shown but a disturbance in the flow is very likely as the pressure is so low and 850s are so low.
Or putting it another way cold without snow is like sex without orgasm...
So to all those who are unsure of where north of the M4 is - here is a reminder:
Write off the rest of winter if those are accurate - fortunately, in my experience, they give about as much guidance as a blind labrador.
Easterly develops on control and a good many GEFS (all in FI of course). See John Hammond blog for his thoughts...
Quite a wintry outlook from the Hamster. https://weathertrending.com/2018/01/12/on-the-horizon-brace/
Haven't the Midlands had enough snow this year???!
No, we don't want a low pressure system thank you very much, kindly p*ss off and leave us in a polar NW'ly flow thanks.
Interesting GEFS06z update and suggestions of a warm sector feeding into the pattern at the time approaches.
What's "sex"?....
Haven't the Midlands had enough snow this year???! No, we don't want a low pressure system thank you very much, kindly p*ss off and leave us in a polar NW'ly flow thanks.
Agreed, not really keen on the idea of a low pressure running through the flow (unless it's a Polar Low).
It's disturbances like this which end up cutting off the convective flow for 12+ hours.
ECM 00z ensemble for London shows a similar uptick early on 18th. Still huge uncertainty after day 10 although the only cluster keeps it cold.
The same spike (early on 18th) is visible on the precipitation chart
Some interesting easterly options in there. Nice to see a few -10Cs at last.