Agree. Having said that we need to agree what conditions were like in the Jan 84 "snowfest". As noted recently I have no recollection of significant snow during that month in York. 

Actual snow reports showed snow lying at 9AM in Jan 1984.

Kindrogan (Perthshire) 30

Glasgow /Edinburgh 20

Manchester 6

London 1.    Incidentally the sunniest January here in almost 100 years. 

Tornadoes and giant hailstones were reported in Yorkshire and the SW as the deep depressions passed.

Coastal ares in S England and Wales had no reported lying snow so very North to South. Scotland and at times N England benefited later in the month from depressions crossing to the South bringing winds temporarily round to the East so even Eastern areas got in in the act. My home area in Highland Perthshire had 60 cms level and a Low of -20C. Leadhills had 112 cms level.

Temperatures varied from well below average at 0.3C in Scotland to slightly above average in the far South.

Easterly develops on control and a good many GEFS (all in FI of course). See John Hammond blog for his thoughts...

https://weathertrending.com/2018/01/12/on-the-horizon-brace/ 

This blog starts -

This winter continues to confound some of our most expert meteorologists. Why the head-scratching? Well, there is some well-established received wisdom on how ocean and atmospheric patterns around the globe ‘should’ affect the jet stream . These ‘known factors’, combined with output from powerful long-range computer forecasts would have had us believe that mild, moist and mobile Atlantic winds would be dominating our weather by this stage in the season. ‘Daffs’ up and temperatures in the teens as February approaches?

………………………………….

Nice to see a professional identifying the jet stream behaving differently from the most regular pattern of the last 20/30 years This experience has been rationalised by the specialists into the algorithms that are the centre of the computer model function. But importantly, the jet is not responding to the expectations of the 'received wisdom' of the expert meteorologists. Put another way, there is some very effective factor/s operating that is/are not included in the weather output modelling.

The jet could well sometime start to behave itself, but if the profile of the jet over the North Atlantic continues mostly in the WNW to ESE mode then I/we will/should start to ponder on what the implications of this unknown factor, might have in future weather.

Haven't the Midlands had enough snow this year???! 

No, we don't want a low pressure system thank you very much, kindly p*ss off and leave us in a polar NW'ly flow thanks. 

Also notable that one of the coldest GFS members later in the run (P1) has a real bomb passing through next week.

That would be a bit fresh on the NW flank.

This is what I came to -

https://weathertrending.com/2018/01/12/on-the-horizon-brace/ 

This blog starts -

This winter continues to confound some of our most expert meteorologists. Why the head-scratching? Well, there is some well-established received wisdom on how ocean and atmospheric patterns around the globe ‘should’ affect the jet stream . These ‘known factors’, combined with output from powerful long-range computer forecasts would have had us believe that mild, moist and mobile Atlantic winds would be dominating our weather by this stage in the season. ‘Daffs’ up and temperatures in the teens as February approaches?

………………………………….

Nice to see a professional identifying the jet stream behaving differently from the most regular pattern of the last 20/30 years This experience has been rationalised by the specialists into the algorithms that are the centre of the computer model function. But importantly, the jet is not responding to the expectations of the 'received wisdom' of the expert meteorologists. Put another way, there is some very effective factor/s operating that is/are not included in the weather output modelling.

The jet could well sometime start to behave itself, but if the profile of the jet over the North Atlantic continues mostly in the WNW to ESE mode then I/we will/should start to ponder on what the implications of this unknown factor, might have in future weather.

 

 

What an excellent site.  I've always had a lot of time for John.  

That update looks spot on - lots of interest for the north and west next week and potential for the more sheltered areas further east if/when the disturbances run through (sorry Joe....).

Also notable that one of the coldest GFS members later in the run (P1) has a real bomb passing through next week.

 

 

That would be a bit fresh on the NW flank.

That 'bomb' still hits a wall as it runs into the block..... and the pattern evolves to this:

And even more blocked thereafter.

 

What's "sex"?....

The number after fünf

 

Actual snow reports showed snow lying at 9AM in Jan 1984.

Kindrogan (Perthshire) 30

Glasgow /Edinburgh 20

Manchester 6

London 1.    Incidentally the sunniest January here in almost 100 years. 

Tornadoes and giant hailstones were reported in Yorkshire and the SW as the deep depressions passed.

Coastal ares in S England and Wales had no reported lying snow so very North to South. Scotland and at times N England benefited later in the month from depressions crossing to the South bringing winds temporarily round to the East so even Eastern areas got in in the act. My home area in Highland Perthshire had 60 cms level and a Low of -20C. Leadhills had 112 cms level.

Temperatures varied from well below average at 0.3C in Scotland to slightly above average in the far South.

January 1984 was one of the wettest Januaries on record here and a good proportion of the precipitation was snow with the ground covered on 19 mornings here and a max depth of 22cm on 23^rd January. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/1984/noaa/NOAA_1_1984012306_1.png 

There were heavy falls around that period as far south as East Anglia as outlined in the Snow Survey of 1983/84. 

https://digital.nmla.metoffice.gov.uk/file/sdb%3AdigitalFile%7Cf8a682b1-2e14-4432-a9dc-2f7d3c9213d9/

The synoptics being modelled currently are nothing like those of January 1984. 1984 looks more like a colder version of January 2014 type synoptics and it’s very rare for that type of set-up to give anything other than rain or sleet here. 

The current model output shows this spell to be bone dry here which would be likely with westerly winds such as this http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1261.html

but it is not at all likely that a north westerly flow like this would be dry here

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1501.html

It was the same when we saw snowfall in December the models showed bone dry north westerly flows which is just nonsense for this location.

Should see a few cm if that comes off but absolutely nothing like January 1984 that’s for sure.

 

What an excellent site.  I've always had a lot of time for John.  

That update looks spot on - lots of interest for the north and west next week and potential for the more sheltered areas further east if/when the disturbances run through (sorry Joe....).

What do you think about the present jet profile and the way John reports on the matter?

Haven't the Midlands had enough snow this year???! 

No, we don't want a low pressure system thank you very much, kindly p*ss off and leave us in a polar NW'ly flow thanks. 

 

Or putting it another way cold without snow is like sex without orgasm...

....... and with old age I'm definitely getting less............... snow  

No!  Not all of us have had snow. It just teases me, then moves on a few mile up or down the road.  So can I have some next week please?  The 23rd would be a lovely birthday present, although I think that’s asking too much as I usually get rain, so I’d be happy with snow any time soon!    Please!  

Don't get me wrong, I'm happy for anyone to receive snow! 

I'm just peeved that a clean NW'ly flow looks likely to be interrupted by a complex short wave feature. The drama of northerly and southerly corrections, mild air etc turns an exciting affair into a stressful one. 

I guess it was always very likely for lows to generate in a flow as cold and unstable as this.

At least (despite some losers), embedded lows could really beef up the snow potential for some.

 

Best not confuse a realistic appraisal of projected conditions with negativity, but I agree I enjoy Joe's enthusiasm

And speaking of realism, the projected freezing level (one of the myriad of parameters of course) ranges from 200m in Scotland to 800m in the far SW for much of next week. This should be fine for places with height but with the low altitude and proximity to maritime modification areas near the W coast and generally in the South will need intensity and nocturnal temperature dips to get snow down to ground level. All subject to change of course.

I think I'm entirely realistic the vast majority of the time. 

I don't think for a second that I'll get anything more than a transient sprinkling where I live, but it's a fascinating pattern and there should be some good convective opportunities.

For high ground in the NW it is looking absolutely awesome and that isn't a wild claim. Just hope that shortwave buggers off.

 

The jet could well sometime start to behave itself, but if the profile of the jet over the North Atlantic continues mostly in the WNW to ESE mode then I/we will/should start to ponder on what the implications of this unknown factor, might have in future weather.

I would hazard a guess that the "unknown factor" is the variability of the sun - SC 14 had a low maximum and it is racing to minimum much more quickly than recorded history would expect (have to go back to cycles 11/12 for an analogy in the 1870s).

 

Don't get me wrong, I'm happy for anyone to receive snow! 

I'm just peeved that a clean NW'ly flow looks likely to be interrupted by a complex short wave feature. The drama of northerly and southerly corrections, mild air etc turns an exciting affair into a stressful one. 

I guess it was always very likely for lows to generate in a flow as cold and unstable as this.

At least (despite some losers), embedded lows could really beef up the snow potential for some.

Yes, I agree, I’m happy for anyone to get snow. But I’m happier if I get it!  

Ahh, the highs and lows of weather watching!  We’d be bored if the models were always right!

From an IMBY perspective I would much prefer a clean cold flow than for lows to generate. They may initial show as giving me a pasting but it seems inevitable that they will be modelled further south (particularly in this set up with the location of the PV).

Would be interesting to see a graphic of the last 100 years to show where has been hit the most by lows crossing the country bringing snow on the northern edge. There are numerous historic events that have hit the Midlands and the South but i struggle to think of anything historic here or into the northern parts of northern England. The Peak District often appears to be the northern most extent.

 

I think I'm entirely realistic the vast majority of the time. 

I don't think for a second that I'll get anything more than a transient sprinkling where I live, but it's a fascinating pattern and there should be some good convective opportunities.

For high ground in the NW it is looking absolutely awesome and that isn't a wild claim. Just hope that shortwave buggers off.

That shortwave is currently a GFS feature its not on any of the MEGREPS short range ensembles

 

That shortwave is currently a GFS feature its not on any of the MEGREPS short range ensembles

I think the ECM up until yesterday showed something similar for a few runs? The whole idea of this shortwave seems very unresolved.