Love your positive posts Joe, they cheer me up. So much better than the negativity of some posters. I agree with your prognosis and think the direction of airflow next week will push those showers through the central lowlands to Edinburgh 😁

I think you're right. Edinburgh would almost certainly grab a few showers. Looking very good for higher parts of Glasgow as it stands. 

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From an IMBY perspective I would much prefer a clean cold flow than for lows to generate. They may initial show as giving me a pasting but it seems inevitable that they will be modelled further south (particularly in this set up with the location of the PV).

Would be interesting to see a graphic of the last 100 years to show where has been hit the most by lows crossing the country bringing snow on the northern edge. There are numerous historic events that have hit the Midlands and the South but i struggle to think of anything historic here or into the northern parts of northern England. The Peak District often appears to be the northern most extent.

January 1995 is the only event that springs to mind, not sure if it's historic but it was certainly a significant dumping.

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True, best snowfall in memory, although i was too young to think of the synoptics so perhaps why i didnt link to a tracking low.
Features in weather history lists such as:
http://www.neforum2.co.uk/ferryhillweather/bonacina.html

so i think we can call it historic.

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January 1984 was one of the wettest Januaries on record here and a good proportion of the precipitation was snow with the ground covered on 19 mornings here and a max depth of 22cm on 23^rd January. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/1984/noaa/NOAA_1_1984012306_1.png 

There were heavy falls around that period as far south as East Anglia as outlined in the Snow Survey of 1983/84. 

https://digital.nmla.metoffice.gov.uk/file/sdb%3AdigitalFile%7Cf8a682b1-2e14-4432-a9dc-2f7d3c9213d9/

The synoptics being modelled currently are nothing like those of January 1984. 1984 looks more like a colder version of January 2014 type synoptics and it’s very rare for that type of set-up to give anything other than rain or sleet here. 

The current model output shows this spell to be bone dry here which would be likely with westerly winds such as this http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1261.html

but it is not at all likely that a north westerly flow like this would be dry here

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1501.html

It was the same when we saw snowfall in December the models showed bone dry north westerly flows which is just nonsense for this location.

Should see a few cm if that comes off but absolutely nothing like January 1984 that’s for sure.

 

I'm in Aberdeen on Wednesday/Thursday Richard so I look forward to that. The Doc was speculating that it would be largely dry up there.

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Not especially sure I like what I see from the 12z runs so far. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_120_1.png 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_120_1.png

Looks like a messier picture and more room for spoilers. 

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Watching Wednesday's feature - too soon to say where it will snow and where it will rain. Hoping it will be snow in the Midlands of course.

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https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/p/o/jan1984.pdf 

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Not especially sure I like what I see from the 12z runs so far. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_120_1.png 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_120_1.png

Looks like a messier picture and more room for spoilers. 

In such a prolonged set up these features are likely to crop up. Although they could inject a little less cold air into the mix at times they are likely to be relatively brief being driven on by a 200mph jet stream. As things stand things are still mightily impressive for us lot in the NW. 

The convection is likely to be heavy most the time. If a disturbance in the flow reduces our potential but increases things for a time for the guys down south then I'm happy. 

 

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&carte=1021&ech=144&archive=0

better than this mornings I think, the trough less flabby and winds more NW

We need the atlantic ridge to build in behind

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In such a prolonged set up these features are likely to crop up. Although they could inject a little less cold air into the mix at times they are likely to be relatively brief being driven on by a 200mph jet stream. As things stand things are still mightily impressive for us lot in the NW. 

The convection is likely to be heavy most the time. If a disturbance in the flow reduces our potential but increases things for a time for the guys down south then I'm happy. 

 

 

Yes maybe I'm being nitpicky. 

Would still prefer a cleaner flow though but you're right that these features are almost inevitable.

Buxton will do well regardless!

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GFS looks a snowy run especially M4 north.

 

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The broad pattern is still the same so far on the 12z data which is generally good news for the NW. Little features like the ones running across the south are likely to be picked up closer to the time or at least the specific details of them will become clearer. There is still plenty of wintry potential, especially away from the immediate coast and with some elevation.

Further northeast I would expect a dry, breezy and chilly period. Further south I would expect more in the way of unsettled conditions and, although not as cold, more of a chance of wintriness than in the NE due to the fact there will be more features embedded in the flow (compared to the drier conditions up here). This of course also means there will be a pretty high chance of shows or rain at times and maybe some decent convection.

Beyond then in FI land there does seem to be a trend for some form of slacker northerly airflow and given what precedes it, it could have potential for some other parts but that is a long way out.

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GFS is interesting but has lost that straight forward long WNW flow for days on end. Not too surprising really as although the start of the WNW incursion is well inside the reliable timeframe much of what was promised in terms of WNW flow was still outside 144 hours.

Significant snow for Midlands /N England Wed Night into Thursday but that situation is so complex that it is unlikely to play out exactly like that. Who's betting it will hit further south (if the low(s) even develop at all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_135_4.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_141_4.png

 

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Don't get me wrong, I'm happy for anyone to receive snow! 

I'm just peeved that a clean NW'ly flow looks likely to be interrupted by a complex short wave feature. The drama of northerly and southerly corrections, mild air etc turns an exciting affair into a stressful one. 

I guess it was always very likely for lows to generate in a flow as cold and unstable as this.

At least (despite some losers), embedded lows could really beef up the snow potential for some.

Its what I’ve been dreading as we get nearer to the time, shortwaves, southerly corrections, and mild sectors. All of these have squandered snow IMBY over the last 7 years, surely not this time.😏

+204 a reminder where the M4 is everyone! ha: - assuming every snowflake falls and settles. - The good news is look how cold and snowy it is to the east of us so any easterly will bring in much colder continental air than the lukewarm fart we had recently!

 

 

Quite a large part of the country under a covering of snow

 

 

 

Quite a lot of Northern Blocking too - then after the GFS strengthens zonal westerlies and brings back the PV  but it's all in FI. All eyes will be on whether or not we see a SSW or not!?

 

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I would hazard a guess that the "unknown factor" is the variability of the sun - SC 14 had a low maximum and it is racing to minimum much more quickly than recorded history would expect (have to go back to cycles 11/12 for an analogy in the 1870s).

Theres no proof, but the correlation has been there for a long time.

The important thing about the jet heading towards the NE is that it takes a great deal of warmth with it into the Arctic together with more moisture/humidity and it is the increased humidity that advects into the lands adjacent to the Arctic that prevents temperatures from dropping to the lower levels which would occur if the air was less humid. The same should happen here to a lesser extent because we are more maritime?

But the present ESE driving jet, which could well be a blip - should have the opposite effect and lead to lower temperatures in those lands and ours.

We will have to see what happens from now on. 

 

 

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+204 a reminder where the M4 is everyone! ha: - assuming every snowflake falls and settles. - The good news is look how cold and snowy it is to the east of us so any easterly will bring in much colder continental air than the lukewarm fart we had recently!

 

 

Quite a large part of the country under a covering of snow

 

 

 

Quite a lot of Northern Blocking too - then after the GFS strengthens zonal westerlies and brings back the PV  but it's all in FI. All eyes will be on whether or not we see a SSW or not!?

 

Going on 25cm IMBY. 🤩🤩🤩

Longer term some very tasty looking GEFS solutions. Meanwhile all eyes on the cold front Monday to presage an intriguing spell for the UK.

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+204 a reminder where the M4 is everyone! ha: - assuming every snowflake falls and settles. - The good news is look how cold and snowy it is to the east of us so any easterly will bring in much colder continental air than the lukewarm fart we had recently!

 

 

Quite a large part of the country under a covering of snow

 

 

 

Quite a lot of Northern Blocking too - then after the GFS strengthens zonal westerlies and brings back the PV  but it's all in FI. All eyes will be on whether or not we see a SSW or not!?

 

 

Good charts Tally, The M4  is working its magic once again!

 

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12z GFS thinks Manchester is going to get a lot of snow. 

https://xcweather.co.uk/forecast/station_EGCC

I don’t believe it for a second, but would like to think I’d see a few flakes with such a strong signal like that. 

The UKV on the other hand has other ideas. 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/mobile/forecast/gcqrvqsrn#?date=2018-01-17 Just sleet and rain, which is also perfectly possible at such a low altitude such as here. 

The latter model is always far more conservative when it comes to snow, but very often within 48 hours the snow risk increases. We’ll see. 

Edit - ECM also thinks rain until Friday when a snow risk eventually develops. https://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Manchester/long.html

With forecasts like the above, it’s certainly worth keeping expectations in check, if you live somewhere like here, despite being in the NW. 

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