Not interesting!? - isn't this A SIGNAL for colder weather ? For a min i thought Denmark was the UK and we were on the milder side of the low pressure jet but to me - if you follow the isobar bars the air /wind is originating from the Norwegian sea and coming all the way around the LP past Iceland too,.!? Also no HP over Azores or even Spain or Portugal. in fact PRESSURE remainds relatively low across many parts of Europe with the UK and Ireland being the coldest parts. MOST Of Scandinavia etc is under mild southerly winds!?

The air mass in the chart originated in Canada, not the Norwegian Sea.  Air masses/wind etc do not directly follow isobars. Isobars are just representative lines of equal pressure. 

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Just as rare as you making a post that doesn't use the phrase "modern era"! 😂😂😂

Not quite that rare 

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Given the synoptics leading up to T+240 in the east/south-east I am fairly certain that there would be snow on the ground and close to an ice day or two. That means the LP and frontal trough moving down would most likely bring snow or sleet.

Not in the same league but some similarity to the Boxing Day 1962 evolution, with th cold established and a northerly replacing an anticyclonic eastelry.  A long way out but an interesting end with bags of potential.

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The atmosphere is a fluid and you need to look at a sequence of charts to see what is evolving. Even with this chart it looks more interesting if you look at the source of the air mass and the upper air temperatures.

At first glance, the bigger picture might look 'interesting' because it isn't a more typical westerly sourced flow that we are more than well used to looking at on the charts,  but I put it to you that the weather that chart would bring in the actual would not be so enthralling.  

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Well a really interesting period coming up, a decent northerly spell followed by uncertainty as to where the jet energy goes which will determine the pattern thereafter, what we can say is that zonality appears to be off the table for the next couple of weeks, which is rare in the modern era. 

Rare yes, but not unprecedented.

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Given the synoptics leading up to T+240 in the east/south-east I am fairly certain that there would be snow on the ground and close to an ice day or two. That means the LP and frontal trough moving down would most likely bring snow or sleet.

Not in the same league but some similarity to the Boxing Day 1962 evolution, with th cold established and a northerly replacing an anticyclonic eastelry.  A long way out but an interesting end with bags of potential.

Agree.

A reboot to follow from the N thereafter is quite likely too. The SW/W Atlantic is literally cut off and perhaps after a few rinse and repeats, we may get a prolonged NE/E'ly.... in time for Xmas? I know it is way into FI but I suspect the odds for a white xmas will tumble by this time next week.

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Agree.

A reboot to follow from the N thereafter is quite likely too. The SW/W Atlantic is literally cut off and perhaps after a few rinse and repeats, we may get a prolonged NE/E'ly.... in time for Xmas? I know it is way into FI but I suspect the odds for a white xmas will tumble by this time next week.

They're already at a surprising 7/4 for here. Perhaps the *BFS model is showing something special?

(BetFred Special)

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The air mass in the chart originated in Canada, not the Norwegian Sea.  Air masses/wind etc do not directly follow isobars. Isobars are just representative lines of equal pressure. 

You need to look again because that is completely wrong!  Yes, the airmass moves along the isobars and towards the lower pressure but absolutely no way does that air mass originate in Canada: it originates east of Greenland and then from the area just to the north.

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Love the way the low moves towards us from Iceland in the last couple of frames of ECM.
Shades of (keeps being mentioned on here), but whether temps are low enough this time round.

 

At first glance, the bigger picture might look 'interesting' because it isn't a more typical westerly sourced flow that we are more than well used to looking at on the charts,  but I put it to you that the weather that chart would bring in the actual would not be so enthralling.  

I beg to differ. There's a very active frontal trough dividing tow sharply different air masses.

850hPa values show the contrast:

 

Here is the rainfall - a very active trough. Go back 12 hours from here and follow it through.

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You need to look again because that is completely wrong!  Yes, the airmass moves along the isobars and towards the lower pressure but absolutely no way does that air mass originate in Canada: it originates east of Greenland and then from the area just to the north.

Nope.

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Actually zonality is alive and well - on the other side of the planet, across the Pacific.

😂😂😂 Indeed.

 

You need to look again because that is completely wrong!  Yes, the airmass moves along the isobars and towards the lower pressure but absolutely no way does that air mass originate in Canada: it originates east of Greenland and then from the area just to the north.

I don't think airmass movement is controlled by airflows and therefore an airmass does not necessarily move along the isobars. An airmass is a bigger-scale condition than is defined by the relative pressure positions, although its characteristics can be fed into an air stream as a result of barometric conditions. It is feasible, for example, for an easterly wind over the UK, from a cold source- say, NE Europe in winter, to be displaced by an Atlantic airmass, with the cold continental airmass migrating eastwards despite the easterly wind.

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I don't think airmass movement is controlled by airflows and therefore an airmass does not necessarily move along the isobars. An airmass is a bigger-scale condition than is defined by the relative pressure positions, although its characteristics can be fed into an air stream as a result of barometric conditions. It is feasible, for example, for an easterly wind over the UK, from a cold source- say, NE Europe in winter, to be displaced by an Atlantic airmass, with the cold continental airmass migrating eastwards despite the easterly wind.

I think if Gandalf was to play the sequence in reverse, he'd see where you and I was coming from: 

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=2&model=gfs&var=2&run=12&time=384&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

 

 

 

 

 

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I recently added a wind streamline chart for the GFS. It's quite useful for wind direction.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=12&charthour=3&chartname=mslp_wsl&chartregion=na-region&charttag=Wind%20SL%20/%20MSLP 

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Nope.

 

I can read a chart.  If you want to misread it then feel free.

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Given the synoptics leading up to T+240 in the east/south-east I am fairly certain that there would be snow on the ground and close to an ice day or two. That means the LP and frontal trough moving down would most likely bring snow or sleet.

Not in the same league but some similarity to the Boxing Day 1962 evolution, with th cold established and a northerly replacing an anticyclonic eastelry.  A long way out but an interesting end with bags of potential.

Indeed Peter.

As someone commented in this thread last night, had we been getting model runs like those we are seeing just now at this time a decade ago, this forum would in all likelihood have gone into meltdown. The model runs at the moment are certainly a world away from those we had in late November 2015, and even look somewhat more promising than the models did at this time last year as well.

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I don't think airmass movement is controlled by airflows and therefore an airmass does not necessarily move along the isobars. An airmass is a bigger-scale condition than is defined by the relative pressure positions, although its characteristics can be fed into an air stream as a result of barometric conditions. It is feasible, for example, for an easterly wind over the UK, from a cold source- say, NE Europe in winter, to be displaced by an Atlantic airmass, with the cold continental airmass migrating eastwards despite the easterly wind.

But you can still trace the original source of the airmass and work out where it has been and where it is going.

In the chart that CP is misreading it is perfectly clear where the air mass was situated upon which the LP draws.

So, what do you think controls the movement of air masses?

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What do you think the original source of this northerly was?  This was a "proper" northerly.  Not sure they make them like this anymore...

-15 uppers into Scotland and -10 to south coast. 07 Feb 1969

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What do you think the original source of this northerly was?  This was a "proper" northerly.  Not sure they make them like this anymore...

-15 uppers into Scotland and -10 to south coast. 07 Feb 1969

 

California?

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