Based on the op, a less cold set up for next weekend after a cold week (Monday aside). It also looks like a rather chilly set up beyond next weekend again.

One thing of note is that the current output is anything but zonal and IMO this can signal for something more interesting in the weeks ahead as this autumn is not seeing the stormy SW'lies which so often plague our shores.

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I’ve just had a look at the GEFS and the majority go for a Greenland block with winds from a northerly quarter for the UK in the latter stages. 

This is the mean at T+318 , a very strong signal. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU12_318_1.png

 

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Yes if you like mild, wet and stormy weather (which I know you do!) 

I can do cold and stormy too. Just not a fan of benign N or NW'lys as they usually bring with them poor aesthetics. 

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I’ve just had a look at the GEFS and the majority go for a Greenland block with winds from a northerly quarter for the UK in the latter stages. 

This is the mean at T+318 , a very strong signal. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU12_318_1.png

 

Yes and tempting fate but I wouldn’t be surprised, based on the GFS ensembles if the ECM op run went for a colder evolution. Yes, it is just conjecture I know but it is often the case. Interesting synoptics for sure.

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It would take a bit of effort the find anything remotely interesting about a set up like this though (which follows on from that 240 chart)

 

 

 

 

Not interesting!? - isn't this A SIGNAL for colder weather ? For a min i thought Denmark was the UK and we were on the milder side of the low pressure jet but to me - if you follow the isobar bars the air /wind is originating from the Norwegian sea and coming all the way around the LP past Iceland too,.!? Also no HP over Azores or even Spain or Portugal. in fact PRESSURE remainds relatively low across many parts of Europe with the UK and Ireland being the coldest parts. MOST Of Scandinavia etc is under mild southerly winds!?

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http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=&ext=1&y=&run=12&lat=57.2&lon=-2.3&runpara=0 

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I’ve just had a look at the GEFS and the majority go for a Greenland block with winds from a northerly quarter for the UK in the latter stages. 

This is the mean at T+318 , a very strong signal. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU12_318_1.png

Take out the 4 or so stragglers and you'd have an even stronger signal. It's really quite remarkable to see such a strong "not the usual zonality" type signal that far out!

Something else of note is that the London ensembles now show several runs dipping below zero for 12 hours at a time, as opposed to the "pinprick" single time period below zero as shown in the last few runs.

Looks like it's similar up north - just saw the Doc's post as I was writing this.

(Edit: that -10C isotherm is still being very elusive, however. It's still fascinating output, regardless!)

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GFS generally has high pressure to our west and low pressure to our east with a cold northerly feed until this time next week.
Around +192, lots of little low and high pressures on the scene and the pattern changes to a more north westerly, then westerly flow to the end of the reliable.
Be interesting what ECM does around +192 and how it treats the set up thereafter.

London 12 GEFS update. At a glance it looks like there's more support for less cold conditions at the start of Dec but in the longer term they are colder than the 6z set. 

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It would take a bit of effort the find anything remotely interesting about a set up like this though (which follows on from that 240 chart)

 

 

 

The atmosphere is a fluid and you need to look at a sequence of charts to see what is evolving. Even with this chart it looks more interesting if you look at the source of the air mass and the upper air temperatures.

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GFS generally has high pressure to our west and low pressure to our east with a cold northerly feed until this time next week.
Around +192, lots of little low and high pressures on the scene and the pattern changes to a more north westerly, then westerly flow to the end of the reliable.
Be interesting what ECM does around +192 and how it treats the set up thereafter.

Given how different the evolution was even during the latter part of the high res section I think that the  'reliable'  might end around T+168.

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ECM 12z out to T+96 and it maintains the upper heights up to the Pole, very similar to GFS.

UKMO never gets the upper heights quite as far north and keep the surface high centred west of Ireland and that is why the block sinks more quickly.

The reliable timeframe may not even go beyond day 5.

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_96_1.png 

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A slack no-mans-land (though a chilly one - in the east) depicted on the ECM 168:

 

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Good evening Mr beast, a gentle fellow? Would be very chilly, borderline cold

 

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Cold easterly at T+192

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Cold easterly at T+192

Tasty.

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Well a really interesting period coming up, a decent northerly spell followed by uncertainty as to where the jet energy goes which will determine the pattern thereafter, what we can say is that zonality appears to be off the table for the next couple of weeks, which is rare in the modern era. 

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Well a really interesting period coming up, a decent northerly spell followed by uncertainty as to where the jet energy goes which will determine the pattern thereafter, what we can say is that zonality appears to be off the table for the next couple of weeks, which is rare in the modern era. 

Actually zonality is alive and well - on the other side of the planet, across the Pacific.

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Well a really interesting period coming up, a decent northerly spell followed by uncertainty as to where the jet energy goes which will determine the pattern thereafter, what we can say is that zonality appears to be off the table for the next couple of weeks, which is rare in the modern era. 

Just as rare as you making a post that doesn't use the phrase "modern era"! 😂😂😂

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