I am going to post the November updates here given how late I am. First up here are the summary tables and data. A very cold month indeed. Coldest minimum CET for November since 1993. 

The negative CET anomaly was the biggest since August 2014 (equalling that month). The last time we had a bigger negative anomaly was March 2013 which was a truly exceptional month.

The Met Office has now issued final daily figures for October. Here are the maximums for 2016. We managed 1 new date record on the 29th. Interestingly this was the only day in October never to record a 20C - the record being 19.8C set as recently as 2014. According to the Daily Weather Summary we reached 20.0C at East Bergholt this year so we now have a 20C on every day.

Halloween was once again the warmest day of the month but despite the very impressive maximum it was still some way below the 2014 record.

Here is the chart for Autumn 2016. After a very mild start we had a very cold end. Overall the situation resulted in the warm and cold largely cancelling out so we ended up just above the long run average.

Despite that it was still the 35th warmest Autumn in the 358 year CET series.

Thanks for the updates GW. You were up early this morning!

Thanks GW for the updates and hard work put in... Have a good New Year.

Annual CET competition - November update

Happy New Year everyone. Apologies for the long delay but here finally are the tables for November. Don't forget that a star next to a person's position means they have reached their highest position in the table this year.

Some big movers this month but no change at the top as GeZM holds on to top spot. Showshoe and Essan are only just behind though.

Wobbly-Monk is definitely having a bit of a wobble as we approach the end of the year, down 2 places this month.

Grandad is the biggest mover this month up 15 to 5th, closely followed by kendalian and Twister who also move up this month. 

Stormchaser is also a big mover this month climbing 10 to 14th as is Windy Willow up 12 to 19th. Lower down there are several others climbing 10 places this month.

Just 0.6C separates 2nd from 12th. So a very tight finish this year across the whole top part of the table.

Cheers GW.

Thank you for the update.  Up TWO places so not relegated.....

Just going through the December predictions. The final table is going to look very different to the November position!

December confirmed as 6.0c

5.98C was the final CET figure for December to 2 decimals. So quite a big downwards adjustment again this month from the provisional data.

Second year in a row that December has been warmer than November. Just checking to see if that has happened before. Answer - yes it has. Last time was 1918 and 1919. Also 1857 and 1858 plus 1842 and 1843. In 1910 to 1912 there were 3 consecutive years where December was warmer than November as there were in 1826 to 1828. So this is the 6th time in CET history we have had at least 2 consecutive December's warmer than November. In fact 3 years out the last 4 as 2013 also saw December warmer than November. 

Not surprisingly nobody had exactly the correct figure for December - even to 1 decimal. But Darren S was the closest with 6.10C and Whether Idle just behind with 5.85C. Congratulations to both of them.

I am delighted to be able to announce that the winner of the annual CET competition this year is Whether Idle with a prediction error of just 5.99C. Well done this is a very impressive achievement. 

The winning figure of 5.99C beats the previous annual record of 6.25C set by Darren S in 2014. So double congratulations to Whether Idle with the first sub 6C winning figure (an average of less than 0.5C error per month).

Full details and tables to follow. But in the interim here are the December predictions.

 

5.98C was the final CET figure for December to 2 decimals. So quite a big downwards adjustment again this month from the provisional data.

Second year in a row that December has been warmer than November. Just checking to see if that has happened before. Answer - yes it has. Last time was 1918 and 1919. Also 1857 and 1858 plus 1842 and 1843. In 1910 to 1912 there were 3 consecutive years where December was warmer than November as there were in 1826 to 1828. So this is the 6th time in CET history we have had at least 2 consecutive December's warmer than November. In fact 3 years out the last 4 as 2013 also saw December warmer than November. 

Not surprisingly nobody had exactly the correct figure for December - even to 1 decimal. But Darren S was the closest with 6.10C and Whether Idle just behind with 5.85C. Congratulations to both of them.

I am delighted to be able to announce that the winner of the annual CET competition this year is Whether Idle with a prediction error of just 5.99C. Well done this is a very impressive achievement. 

The winning figure of 5.99C beats the previous annual record of 6.25C set by Darren S in 2014. So double congratulations to Whether Idle with the first sub 6C winning figure (an average of less than 0.5C error per month).

Full details and tables to follow. But in the interim here are the December predictions.

 

Wow!

I'm made up!  What a brilliant surprise and I'm feeling a bit chuffed.  Thanks again GW for running this brilliant competition.  After a poor opening effort in 2015, in 2016, I managed to get my eye in, and I'm pleased to be the record holder.  Blimey, feeling epic!

Now watch 2017 goes badly wrong

Whether Idle

Here are the final CET tables and charts for December

A very cold start and end to the month but the rest was very mild. At one point the CET touched 7C on the 16th.

 

 

 

Me too - but ain't that the beauty of the CET comp? Personally, whilst acknowledging the additional work that GW would need to put in, I'd prefer if entries for all year were secret.

Actually it makes no real difference to me in terms of the time it takes to process predictions whether they are PM'd to me or posted in the thread directly. Only difference is I just have to delete my inbox once a month which only takes a few seconds. So happy to do it either way. If there is a preference for keeping predictions secret until everyone has made their predictions we can certainly do that. Does anyone else have views on this?

 

Actually it makes no real difference to me in terms of the time it takes to process predictions whether they are PM'd to me or posted in the thread directly. Only difference is I just have to delete my inbox once a month which only takes a few seconds. So happy to do it either way. If there is a preference for keeping predictions secret until everyone has made their predictions we can certainly do that. Does anyone else have views on this?

I was just thinking they ought to be PMed to you, which keeps the competition "cleaner".

But I will go with the flow, its your call GW, its your competition.

Well done Whether Idle 

I quite quickly realised I'd blown it this month by predicting way too low. I'm just chuffed I was at the top for a while this year. 

Thanks again Global for organising this excellent competition. 

Well done Whether Idle 

I quite quickly realised I'd blown it this month by predicting way too low. I'm just chuffed I was at the top for a while this year. 

Thanks again Global for organising this excellent competition. 

 

 

Thanks Gez.   I thought you were unassailable.  It just goes to show, one bad month and that can be it, for anyone!  What a competition.

Still no 5.9C for a December CET which I find remarkable. What are the climatic odds of recording a December with a CET above 9.0C before one of 5.9C after decades of records?

And still no 5.9C! 

Got to be one of the strangest stats quirks in the CET records

Annual CET competition - December update

EDIT - 1400GMT - sorry just spotted an error. I got rickm's December prediction mixed up with his winter prediction. As a result he is 10 places lower in the table at 16th. Everyone else between 6th and 16th has moved up a place. Revised tables below.

Okay so here is the final update of the year. As mentioned above congratulations to Whether Idle who is our winner this year. 

December saw the second highest prediction error of the year overall, just behind April. Most people expecting a cooler than average month based on the output at the end of November.

The top 3 all moved up 7 places this month with The Professional finishing second and Frank H in third.

Other big climbers into the top 10 this month included Duncan McAlister up 16 to 6th and Rob K up 11 to 8th.

There were several other big climbers who went for a high December CET including Darren S up 16 to 11th and markwells up 19 to 28th.

We finished with 53 participants who kept going throughout the year and missed no more than 2 predictions.

Thanks to everyone who took part this year. It is great to have 50+ people involved. Here's to another interesting year in 2017. My new year resolution is to keep on top of things throughout the year so we have more timely updates.

The tables below show the month by month stats for both prediction errors and position in the table. Predictions highlighted in yellow are for an error of less than 0.5C. Figures in orange highlight a missed prediction for which an error is calculated by me according to the rules of the competition (the third quartile of the prediction errors for that month plus a penalty of 0.4C).