The Weather Outlook

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Gooner
23 October 2016 21:09:20

 

No idea myself the only reply is 'uh oh. That's what I feared the most'

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



pdiddy
23 October 2016 21:16:26

 

Fascinating! Now, can anyone explain in layman's terms what it means?

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

Image result for back to the future doc

Try this fella

 

DylanR
23 October 2016 21:25:00

 

No idea myself the only reply is 'uh oh. That's what I feared the most'

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Previous tweets seem  to be concentrating on just American weather/winter  prospects.

Solar Cycles
23 October 2016 21:42:49

 

Fascinating! Now, can anyone explain in layman's terms what it means?

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

BOOM 

 From my extremely limited knowledge it appears there's a significant warming prognating downwards from the stratosphere to the troposphere resulting in the PV being displaced somewhere over this neck of the woods, I think.

GIBBY
23 October 2016 21:43:53

I've just released my prospects to my local community for Winter 2016-17. For anyone interested they can be read on my 'Kilmersdon Weather' Facebook Page.


Martin G

Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset

Look up my New Facebook Weather Page  for all the latest up to the minute weather stories as they happen
Gooner
23 October 2016 22:00:49

I've just released my prospects to my local community for Winter 2016-17. For anyone interested they can be read on my 'Kilmersdon Weather' Facebook Page.

Originally Posted by: GIBBY 

That will do for me Martin


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Saint Snow
24 October 2016 10:28:39

BOOM 

 From my extremely limited knowledge it appears there's a significant warming prognating downwards from the stratosphere to the troposphere resulting in the PV being displaced somewhere over this neck of the woods, I think.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

 

Wasn't there a chunk of the PV that relocated to Scandinavia/North Sea in 2010...?

A repeating pattern of stubborn blocking to our NW and a huge low centred just to our east (bringing NW'lies to much of the UK) would be ideal IMO.

 


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

roger63
  • roger63
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
24 October 2016 16:08:03

Thre is always a lot of discussion about whether the QBO has any link to winter weather type.Interesting then to read this para in the recent METO "skilful predictions " paper.

 

"To potentially explain  the second winter NAO skill we seek variables that are are both significantly predicted and correlated with the subsequent winter NAO variability.Although the QBO is highly predictable (r=0.71) it is not significantly correlated with the NAO"

Whether Idle
24 October 2016 16:34:00

Note the increasing upward EP flux centered around 60N, now penetrating the lower stratosphere

 

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

This explains everything.  Set it to 26 12 1962

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HyWqxkaQpPw

 


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Bertwhistle
24 October 2016 16:54:41

 

 

IMO…..  early snow cover in Scandinavia, is the result of synoptics and a 'cold' forcing system opposite/completely different to Atlantic influenced synoptics, which, over the years, i've suggested, diminishes the opportunity for snow cover to readily form early over Scandinavia…. that being the synoptics associated with the jet stream coming across the Atlantic from the SW and heading somewhere to the north of Scandinavia.

 

Strongly connected to this is the progress of developing snow cover in Siberia and this link is interesting -

 

https://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/autumnwinter/predicts.jsp

 

Quote -Researchers at Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc. (AER) and MIT are taking winter weather forecasting beyond El Niño by investigating the relationship between Siberian snow cover in fall months, and Northern Hemisphere climate variability during the winter. A forecast model developed by AER scientist Judah Cohen has achieved on-target forecasts for major cities in the industrialized countries.

"Weather affects peoples' lives and the global economy on a daily basis," says Anjuli Bamzai, program director in NSF's climate dynamics program. "Improving our ability to predict cold weather and heavy snow has obvious benefits. The success of Cohen's real-time forecasts offers a way to improve our ability to anticipate such important events."

 

This leads to a forecast for North Amewrica -

 

 

Predicted winter surface temperature anomalies for the United States Dec-Jan-Feb 2016/17 in degrees Fahrenheit. The model is forecasting colder than normal temperatures for much of the Eastern United States, with warmer than normal temperatures for the Western United States. The model uses October Siberian snow cover, sea level pressure anomalies, predicted El Niño/Southern Oscillation anomalies, and observed September Arctic sea ice anomalies. October Siberian snow cover has so far this month advanced at an above normal rate. This is an indication of an increased probability of a weakened polar vortex or a sudden stratospheric warming, and a predominantly negative Arctic Oscillation during the winter and cold temperatures - especially east of the Mississippi. This is a preliminary forecast and not the official winter forecast as the model requires full monthly values for snow cover and sea level pressure anomalies. The forecast will be updated next month. Current forecast produced on October 19, 2016.

Credit: Judah Cohen, AER, Inc.

 

Originally Posted by: polarwind 

Does that include the OPI?

Seriously though, the chart shown here suggests > average temperatures over SE Canada; that could be encouraging, since the last few cruddy winters have seen a real chill over Labrador, Newfoundland etc. I like it.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Solar Cycles
24 October 2016 20:35:19
Hoping to see conditions similar to this again this winter, taken just up the road from where I live.

tallyho_83
25 October 2016 10:28:59

 

Does that include the OPI?

Seriously though, the chart shown here suggests > average temperatures over SE Canada; that could be encouraging, since the last few cruddy winters have seen a real chill over Labrador, Newfoundland etc. I like it.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

 

Anyone notice that every winter in the USA seems to get colder and more snowier than the previous one - this has been going on for 3 consecutive years and perhaps a colder than average 4th winter in a row. Where as we in the UK have been getting milder winters over the past several years. This is bad news for us. Whenever it's cold there - it's milder for the UK.


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

---------------------------------------

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

sizzle
25 October 2016 10:52:26

well I must say the high pressure has been a very strong feature since june giving prolonged dry conditions but something has to give I wont be surprised if we see at least one cold snap before Christmas.

Justin W
25 October 2016 11:10:50

For those who think there's a link between solar activity and our climate, we're very much in the death throes of Cycle 24 with - for example - just three sunspots observed today. A quick comparison shows that we are at about the same point we were in late 2006 or late 2007 during Cycle 23 before the extraordinary minimum of 2008/9/10.

October 2007 was also a very dry month across England and Wales. Sadly, it was followed by a milder-than-average winter although I am not suggesting that 2016/17 will follow the same pattern.


Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
KevBrads1
25 October 2016 12:30:27

 

 

Anyone notice that every winter in the USA seems to get colder and more snowier than the previous one - this has been going on for 3 consecutive years and perhaps a colder than average 4th winter in a row. Where as we in the UK have been getting milder winters over the past several years. This is bad news for us. Whenever it's cold there - it's milder for the UK.

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Simplistic analysis. Winter 1978-79 was cold over large parts of the USA as it was here.

It was a very mild December 2015  in eastern USA as it was here.

January-March 1990 was mild as it was here.

Winter 1995-96 was cold as it was here.

 December 2010 was cold there as well as here.


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Russwirral
25 October 2016 14:09:28

 

Simplistic analysis. Winter 1978-79 was cold over large parts of the USA as it was here.

It was a very mild December 2015  in eastern USA as it was here.

January-March 1990 was mild as it was here.

Winter 1995-96 was cold as it was here.

 December 2010 was cold there as well as here.

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

 

also - a bit like comparing apples and oranges.  USA is the size if not bigger than Europe.  UK is the size of a small US state.

 

 


picturesareme
26 October 2016 14:29:06

 

 

also - a bit like comparing apples and oranges.  USA is the size if not bigger than Europe.  UK is the size of a small US state.

 

 

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 

not to forget that huge parts of the U.S. sit at altitudes above 300m - heck some parts are over 2000m 😉 and I'm not evening talking about hills & mountains here.

Even here in the UK the climate & weather for the hills of 300m or more is significantly different then the bulk.

Saint Snow
26 October 2016 15:18:35

 

not to forget that huge parts of the U.S. sit at altitudes above 300m - heck some parts are over 2000m 😉 and I'm not evening talking about hills & mountains here.

Even here in the UK the climate & weather for the hills of 300m or more is significantly different then the bulk.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

 

It's a good point. When I've been in Calgary, it's weird to think that its 'flat' altitude is higher than the summit of any mountain in England.

 

 


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
26 October 2016 17:54:09

 

 

It's a good point. When I've been in Calgary, it's weird to think that its 'flat' altitude is higher than the summit of any mountain in England.

 

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

That's interesting. I didn't know that and I've flown to Calgary too. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

festivalking
27 October 2016 12:08:52
KevBrads1
27 October 2016 12:46:03

 

 

It's a good point. When I've been in Calgary, it's weird to think that its 'flat' altitude is higher than the summit of any mountain in England.

 

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

It's like Johannesburg, that is over 1000ft higher than Ben Nevis!


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Saint Snow
27 October 2016 15:07:25

 

It's like Johannesburg, that is over 1000ft higher than Ben Nevis!

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

 

Blimey, I didn't know that.

 

 


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Bertwhistle
27 October 2016 15:18:19

Kigali, Rwanda's capital is over 5000 feet- with a mean maximum between 26C and 28C every month of the year, so pop that in yer winter prospects and predictions pipe and smoke it.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Essan
27 October 2016 15:28:09

Kigali, Rwanda's capital is over 5000 feet- with a mean maximum between 26C and 28C every month of the year, so pop that in yer winter prospects and predictions pipe and smoke it.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

It's also virtually on the equator


Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

Weather & Earth Science News 

Look in the doubt we've wallowed, look at the leaders we've followed, look at the lies we've swallowed, and I don't want to hear no more

RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
27 October 2016 16:43:59

The gritting map on the Cambridgeshire CC website referenced in that article caught my attention.

It appears to show that the bus route which runs past my house will not be gritted this winter. Every year up to now it has been gritted at the merest suggestion of a ground frost.

However, historically (on the rare occasions in which snow falls around here) the most severe problems locally have occurred on the trunk roads and motorways which are gritted (or not) by the Highways Agency.

For example: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/2713685.stm


Rob

In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.

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