OMG.  That is appalling!  You are overdue a good dumping.  Fingers crossed that this year will deliver.  It only takes one good synoptic set up, even in a winter of dross.  Not much to ask, is it?

Latest snow cover chart makes for interesting reading. Significant advance of snow cover since last week.

Of most note is the fact there is now significant snow cover in Scandinavia which may be more impactful for what happens over our part of the world this winter rather than what is going on in Siberia.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/snowNESDISnh.gif

Current forecast is for the snow cover to expand significantly again this week with the snow reaching the European border by Friday:

Today 00

Friday 144

This is despite temperatures not being especially cold in the next week. The GFS is indicating the first week of November could be very cold in Scandinavia and Russia with mean temperatures of <0C right up to the European border. That could increase snow coverage even more.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

So something to keep an eye on. Only one factor of many to take into account of course.

It will be the centennial of the winter 1916-17 this winter. Winter 1916-17 was the first severe winter of the 20th century. It was an extended winter lasting well into April.

Pressure anomalies for that winter 

Sunderland

Days with falling and lying snow

December

5 days falling

13 days lying

January

19 days falling

22 days lying

February

4 days falling

17 days lying

March

9 days falling

14 days lying

April

12 days falling

11 days lying

In recent years there has usually been snow cover from mid-September.

http://longyearbyen.kystnor.no/ 

As to what impact this has on our winter, I really don't know.

Let's not forget that by this time, most if not all of Svalbard, is now experiencing the polar night. The Arctic really is exceptionally warm at the moment.

The situation in the Barents/Kara seas and hence around Svalbard is of great interest to meteorologists and climatologists alike with respect to the coming winter.

With such extreme anomalous warmth up there, and a lack of strong ENSO forcing to interfere with or override the response, this should be a good test as to how well the feedback mechanisms are able to produce results.

The past week has seen my excitement level just start to pick itself up off the floor after a very benign Sep-Oct (not that it's been without interest in statistical terms - I certainly enjoyed the warmth in Sep).

I think the snowfall around 22 March 2013 in NW England has been forgotten in the earlier post

Yes very warm but I don't it is quite polar night for much of Svalbard for a few days yet. Perhaps northernmost parts? In a few days I think it will be in all parts.

Interesting that 1916-17 seems to have been a sever winter, as the previous winter produced an exceptionally mild January, the mildest January on record if I'm not mistaken.

December 1916 looks to have been a month with some very strong wave activity in the stratosphere. A canadian warming or full blown SSW - reanalysis cannot tell.

10mb reanalysis December 1916.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/comp.20thc.day.v2.pl

Winter 1916-17 brought some really severe weather to Ireland with numerous blizzards, with notable events occurring in January and April (oddly) the latter bringing up to a metre of snow over a large parts of the west of the country, and is considered to be the most severe snow event of the 20th century here.

IMO…..  early snow cover in Scandinavia, is the result of synoptics and a 'cold' forcing system opposite/completely different to Atlantic influenced synoptics, which, over the years, i've suggested, diminishes the opportunity for snow cover to readily form early over Scandinavia…. that being the synoptics associated with the jet stream coming across the Atlantic from the SW and heading somewhere to the north of Scandinavia.

Strongly connected to this is the progress of developing snow cover in Siberia and this link is interesting -

https://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/autumnwinter/predicts.jsp

Quote -Researchers at Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc. (AER) and MIT are taking winter weather forecasting beyond El Niño by investigating the relationship between Siberian snow cover in fall months, and Northern Hemisphere climate variability during the winter. A forecast model developed by AER scientist Judah Cohen has achieved on-target forecasts for major cities in the industrialized countries.

"Weather affects peoples' lives and the global economy on a daily basis," says Anjuli Bamzai, program director in NSF's climate dynamics program. "Improving our ability to predict cold weather and heavy snow has obvious benefits. The success of Cohen's real-time forecasts offers a way to improve our ability to anticipate such important events."

This leads to a forecast for North Amewrica -

Predicted winter surface temperature anomalies for the United States Dec-Jan-Feb 2016/17 in degrees Fahrenheit. The model is forecasting colder than normal temperatures for much of the Eastern United States, with warmer than normal temperatures for the Western United States. The model uses October Siberian snow cover, sea level pressure anomalies, predicted El Niño/Southern Oscillation anomalies, and observed September Arctic sea ice anomalies. October Siberian snow cover has so far this month advanced at an above normal rate. This is an indication of an increased probability of a weakened polar vortex or a sudden stratospheric warming, and a predominantly negative Arctic Oscillation during the winter and cold temperatures - especially east of the Mississippi. This is a preliminary forecast and not the official winter forecast as the model requires full monthly values for snow cover and sea level pressure anomalies. The forecast will be updated next month. Current forecast produced on October 19, 2016.

Credit: Judah Cohen, AER, Inc.

Interesting indeed; that North American chart is highly consistent with a strong & stubborn Greenland high pressure cell, or at the least a decent Atlantic block west of the U.K.

Well just a minor update -

After a bit of a rollercoaster for the models last week the prospects of more 'unseasonal' blocking continues to tease us like one of the old 1p ' look what the butler saw reels' - lets hope our money doesnt run out when we get to December !!!

We have seen a very sedated vortex early doors this year & as highlighted before October is knocking on the door of a 66 year record - IE the -AO. Whilst perhaps its not a significant record for the UK - in the bigger picture, especially Up past 60N - This is a significant record. It shows a very disjointed & fragmented Vortex.

The record for the month is -1.5 & he were are at the 22nd -

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml 

I would say -2 by the 25th is a realistic figure & with a significant trend across today from the 00z ( used for the AO ) to the 12z has been all 1 way..- building a bigger block.

So based on this I think the landing zone will be around -2.25. A record breaker & the only October in history sub -2.

As said - 1 swallow doesnt make a Summer, however today we have seen that potentially for the opener to November the AO/NAO is ramped !

The models are reacting to the overall ensemble mean around that all important 60N zonal wind - This is basically the end result of all the feedbacks fed upwards & downwards into the atmosphere.

I need to go a check what constitutes what speed represents a negative zonal wind however we may be close after todays modelling -

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa.png 

This is significant dropping below 1 standard deviation from Climotology - & with a double dip - the possibility of dropping past 2.

The strat is also reflecting a split now at day 7 - which is very very different to the October mean

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/nh_strat/nh_stanom.php 

Anyway, more strat features come online for November - from the Berlin site. Which will give us a clearer picture-

So - in a nutshell we are in the best possible place we could ever be on the entry to November.

Also PS - as regards svalbard snowcover,I agree with a post above- the recent october Blocking tendancies have put Svalbard in almost exactly the wrong position for October snow with all the cold going to the East & south of that locale ... for them the Oct snow has almost been wiped off the map in a matter if years !

Cheers

After several mild winters I think that would have been the definite proof that Something Had Changed, and that in the new era of the Modern Winter a season such as 1916-17 was no longer possible.

I do love these historical reports.

Is there any from this winter for the NW/Manchester/Liverpool region?

@splillo

Note the increasing upward EP flux centered around 60N, now penetrating the lower stratosphere

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/790280301033365505/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Fascinating! Now, can anyone explain in layman's terms what it means?

No idea myself the only reply is 'uh oh. That's what I feared the most'