http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/14/twitchers-flock-to-village-car-park-to-catch-glimpse-of-rare-sib/

Yep, a cold winter must be on the way!

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/14/twitchers-flock-to-village-car-park-to-catch-glimpse-of-rare-sib/

Yep, a cold winter must be on the way!

You may scoff, but it takes me back to the early 60s when early sightings of Siberian birds at Slimbridge presaged the bitter winter of 62-63.

Of course, the birds cannot predict the weather, but they respond to the climate in real time and can provide clues about the direction of travel.  We had a flock of migrating geese land in a nearby field yesterday. Let's hope a 62-63 winter is in the offing.

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I think this is more of a reactory action to the early deep cold out towards Siberia aided by the easterly flow we've endured over the last couple of weeks.

First of all, obviously a lot of thanks to Mr Murr for teasing out all that information and presenting a good case for paying attention to extremely negative Arctic Oscillations in October, with a view to them being repeated in either Dec, Jan, Feb or March, alongside a negative N Atlantic Oscillation.

My big problem is the absence of any strongly negative Arctic Oscillations in November to accompany the October numbers. It's not as though they are difficult to achieve. As you show, there were 12 of them in the half century up to 2002. Yet in the subsequent 14 years they have been completely absent, despite record-breaking numbers during that time for the month before and the months after.

I know it's not implausible that there might be some mechanism whereby patterns in October only resolve themselves into similar ones months later, after undergoing a change in November. And it wouldn't surprise me if there were one just waiting to be explained to me. But until then, in view of the small sample size, I'll just file any extreme-negative October AOs under 'well, that's interesting' rather than 'where's me sledge'.

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I think this is more of a reactory action to the early deep cold out towards Siberia aided by the easterly flow we've endured over the last couple of weeks.

Oh absolutely! However, such conditions could be more favourable to UK cold winters than otherwise.

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Oh absolutely! However, such conditions could be more favourable to UK cold winters than otherwise.

My main concern is ( and I know weather doesn't have a memory ) that we use our quota of northern blocking before the winter actually begins. 😏

Hi Steve,

A Fascinating study there. Lets hope that Novembers AO falls into the very negative category!

Andy W, the early winter of 81/82 and it doesn't surprise me one bit that -30C was breached in that winter as the temperatures were truly remarkable.

In the dark days of the little ice age, I reckon -30C was breached a few times especially during the 1739/1740 and 1683/84 winters such was the intensity of the cold. 

I read somewhere, that -26C was recorded in Beckenham in Kent in the 1700's I do believe. Again this is an unofficial reading but goes to show how cold it really was during the little ice age.

Grant

I reckon we're in for a cooler and drier winter than the last four although I'm not expecting anything particularly cold at the moment.

The only semi reliable indicator that can be used to infer anything IMO is solar activity. As Maunder says, sunspot numbers are heading down towards a minimum but are a way off yet. Comparing where we are with the last cycle, I'd say the indicators point to a winter like 2005/6 or 2006/7 rather than 2009/10 or 2010/11.

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My main concern is ( and I know weather doesn't have a memory ) that we use our quota of northern blocking before the winter actually begins. 😏

A concern shared by many this Autumn, who hope for northern blocking in Winter.

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You may scoff, but it takes me back to the early 60s when early sightings of Siberian birds at Slimbridge presaged the bitter winter of 62-63.

Of course, the birds cannot predict the weather, but they respond to the climate in real time and can provide clues about the direction of travel.  We had a flock of migrating geese land in a nearby field yesterday. Let's hope a 62-63 winter is in the offing.

I think the poor little sod couldn't take Putin any longer.

I wouldn't be to worried about the blocking we are getting at the moment meaning we won't get any blocking later on in the winter when we really want it..
The current blocking is really east based rather than the northern blocking that brings us our most sustained cold spells and winters.

For sure the current East based block will break down at some point but the polar vortex is showing a great disinclination to get going this year with warm air being advected into the arctic on both sides of the northern hemisphere.

Even if it does kick in during November one only has to look back to November 2009 to see that an active vortex firing stormy weather our way can still be broken down pretty quickly in time for the winter season proper.

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All eyes on the AO for the remainder of OCT & NOV to hopefully set the tone for the Winter...

S 

 Completely agree with that. I've never known why some agencies feel obliged to push out their winter forecasts in October or early November other than for financial reasons. I've always thought that what happens during the autumn (not just AO) is helpful in producing a winter forecast. It seems like common sense to me.

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Yes having been rushed into producing an early forecast in the past, its important to wait until mid November, especially as things don't look as clear cut as last year.

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Yes having been rushed into producing an early forecast in the past, its important to wait until mid November, especially as things don't look as clear cut as last year.

Will it consists of the word M.O.D.E.R.N  by any chance Ian. 😜 

Solar, yes of course it will. Anything that tries to predict developments has to discuss the most phenomenal recent changes in several hundred years of recorded data.

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Ian did you just not read my post...
Facts dont lie that in the last 10 years theres been as negative months broken ( winter ) as positive ones - probably more

S

Solar, yes of course it will. Anything that tries to predict developments has to discuss the most phenomenal recent changes in several hundred years of recorded data.

Ian, given the agenda we all know you love to peddle here, I'm pretty sure you didn't forecast the cold winter of 2009/10 or the exceptional December of 2010.

If your beloved "modern winter" theory had any grain of truth in it, then those major cold spells would almost certainly never have happened, which IIRC is exactly what you spent much of your original spell as a member here trying to convince everyone one of, to no avail I might add.

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I did read your post Steve and its very interesting, but we had this SOI October theory busted a couple of years ago, and the modern era has proved itself no respecter of 'what should happen'

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The SOI ( OPI ) was a theory however what I posted was just facts & figures that totally disprove your love for your modern winter.

I did read your post Steve and its very interesting, but we had this SOI October theory busted a couple of years ago, and the modern era has proved itself no respecter of 'what should happen'

To turn it round another way, winter 2009/10, December 2010 and even the cold spells of January and March 2013 proved to be no respecters of the "modern era".

 

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