You're like a dripping tap.

Only more annoying.

Not only has the QBO strengthened but there now have been 17 consecutive QBO + months a record for the series from 1948.

However METO say in there recent one year winter forecast that there is no correlation between QBO values and winter NAO values. 

Fair enough, but would be interested to know the Winter CET's following the warmest Septembers in the same time series?  Let's say the warmest 10 Septembers and the following Winter CET.  If that doesn't show a trend, then I would accept that it's just been a statistical anomaly in recent decades.

I stand by what I said.

There is, IMO, as much truth that "modern era" synoptics are irreversable (which is precisely what you spent your originbal tenure on here telling us) as there is that the Loch Ness monster is real.

I've decided to cut Ian some slack given that he is one of us (Remainers)

Hmm, I've read his tweets, I don't get that impression.....

I have to say some of these repetitive digs are starting to wear a bit thin now

Please keep your posts on topic

I always say that every winter is a learning curve for us all, we saw some factors come together around the turn of the decade that led to something different. I just think that if the METO are correct in their NDJ outlook with their data they have rather than the data that WE can see, then it will be a tremendous call and show the advancement in their technology against the amateur pundit.

And Kev, yes you are right 

And I would back the Met Office over any amateur every time (including or especially me) even if they prove to be wrong this time. Their contingency forecast looks well founded and researched and it will be very interesting to see if it is a good call or even a step forward.

Looks like we're all in agreement then

Looking at the repeating- yes, I admit, periodically replaced- pattern in dominant easterlies above 60N at around 10W to 40E, I have a feeling. There could be an interruption to the prevalence of any 'modern winter' with what I might call 'restored winter'. Conjecture, of course.

TBH, I have don't know much about the 'QBO' or it's possible influence on global scale patterns, but I just put simple graph together showing the correlation (or lack thereof) between winter QBO and NAO deviation values for years specified on the graph. Data is from NOAA

Chunky thanks for producing the exact figures.

I definitely think it's shaping up to be a colder winter than average - the way the temps have just dropped steadily down and down this Autumn from September up til now, with hardly any of the mild, mushy, wet and windy autumnal gunk we usually get, is a very encouraging sign.  That's what I remember happening in 2010 and I think in the year or 2 before that when we also had quite a lot of snow 

The METO in  its contingency forecast mentioned disruption to the Polar vortex buy didn't spell out the cause of such disruption.Could it be our old friend SSW -sudden stratospheric warming?

some hints of SSW...:

Latest from Brett Anderson:

This is what he suspects will be the main theme across N. America. Not much cold to be had over the Canadian Maritimes it would seem to help trigger off any worthwhile zonality over the Atlantic.

That map looks about right. According to the weather website blurb the average high in the area of BC I'm currently in for 8th November is +2.3c, and the average low -4.6c. Tomorrow the forecast is +14c with a low of +5c. 

Calgary can expect 18c on Friday, and if that happens it will be 14.4c above average 

That's very useful and shows that there is no statistical correlation between QBO and the NAO index.

This is just an observation but it seems members of this forum are often happy to bicker and banter about trivia but when some decent data is posted it largely goes without acknowledgement. 

That's the modern era for you I suppose 😉

In addition, Roger63 had already commented a couple of times on the assertion to the same effect which he'd noticed hidden away in the paper behind the MetO's recent claim to be able to predict the NAO up to a couple of years'in advance.

Anyway, based on what is happening at the moment, combined with the restricted length of the records we have, you just wonder whether there actually is such a thing as a QBO. Or if there is, whether it's a whole lot more quasi than biennial.

I wondered what he had been up to, Suede have been quiet of late. 

Shame the one patch of cold and stormy is right where it would fire up the jet towards the UK.

As I recall, the models did rather well in the lead up to start of both the December 2010 freeze and the beginning of the severe wintry spell just after mid-December 2009. In the case of the former, there was IIRC a clear trend in the models to raise heights considerably to the north around a week or so before the first of wintry stuff actually commenced. As far as the latter event was concerned, my recollection is that the models first began picking up on a major change from wet and mostly mild pattern that had dominated November' 09 in the early days of that December.

The funny thing is that before the 09/10 winter, if my memory serves me well, the MetO had predicted a milder winter that season than what we had seen in winter 08/09, whereas a few independent forecasters, one of whom was Brian here on TWO, went for a rather colder one. Hmmm!

I do hope HLB does kick in for December. Nothing beats a wintry build-up to Xmas.

A possible issue is that Dec 2010 was such an extreme event with at times a perfect combination of factors combining to deliver snow to most of the UK at some point, that even with good HLB there's no guarantee that conditions on the ground will be anything like as good as 2010.

If people (not in the sensible, level-headed world of TWO, obviously...) automatically think HLB would equal snowtasia, there could be a lot of disappointment.