SUMMARY – TEMPERATURE: During December below-average temperatures are more likely than above-average temperatures. The risk of impacts from cold weather is considerably higher than normal. Predictions for UK-mean temperature for the whole of the winter season (December-January-February) show only a slight shift from the normal range of expected conditions. Nevertheless, this unremarkable outlook conceals a change from an increased risk of a cold start to winter to a greater likelihood of milder conditions later on. These different phases tend to balance the probability of above- and below-average conditions in the overall 3-month average, but the risk of cold weather impacts in the first half of winter is considerably greater than normal. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for December-January-February will fall into the coldest of our five categories is between 20% and 25% and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 15% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%). As stated above, however, these statistics conceal a shift in probabilities as winter progresses. CONTEXT: Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean remain slightly cooler than average, close to the threshold for a La Niña event. While temperatures imply a ‘neutral’ state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, tropical Pacific rainfall patterns do appear to be similar to those expected during La Niña. Relatively little change is expected in the coming months. Weak La Niña conditions slightly increase the probability of blocking over the North Atlantic and Europe in early winter, but slightly increase the chance of more mobile, westerly weather in late winter. This would imply a shift in likelihood towards colder- and drier-than-average conditions for the UK early in winter and the reverse later on. The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), an oscillation of the equatorial winds in the stratosphere, remains in a westerly phase. The QBO influences winter conditions over Western Europe by modulating the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) and thereby the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) at the surface. The westerly phase of the QBO tends to favour a stronger SPV, particularly in early winter, leading to a higher likelihood of a positive phase of the NAO. Despite the westerly QBO, the SPV is actually much weaker than normal this year and is expected to only slowly strengthen during December. A weak SPV tends to influence surface conditions with a delay of a few weeks. This implies an increased likelihood of negative NAO and blocking during December and January, which would increase the probability of cold weather in the UK during this first part of winter. Arctic sea ice extent is at a record low level for the time of year. The largest sea ice deficits are in the Barents and Kara Seas. Recent research suggests that lack of sea ice especially in the Eurasian sector, may increase the likelihood of blocking patterns and the negative phase of NAO occurring in winter. In the North Atlantic Ocean, sea surface temperatures are well above average in the western Atlantic near Newfoundland. This pattern of sea surface temperatures is thought to moderately increase the probability of above-average pressure in the central North Atlantic, leading to an increased frequency of northerly or northwesterly winds over the UK. At this time of year such a pressure pattern is often associated with below-average temperatures. During December, the factors described above suggest an increased likelihood of negative NAO and blocking, which usually bring below-average temperatures for the UK. Predictions from the Met Office seasonal prediction system, along with those from other global forecast centres, offer strong and consistent support for this view. The left-hand graph in figure T2 shows a clear shift towards colder conditions. The chance of a prolonged spell of cold weather taking hold in December is high compared to normal, although more usual types of winter weather are not ruled out. winter, pThrough the early part of the 3-month period, colder-than-average conditions are more likely than milder-than average. Later in the particularly into February, prediction systems signal a shift towards less likelihood of blocked weather patterns, which would imply a reduction in the chances of cold conditions. The effect of these different phases is to bring probabilities for the 3-month UK-average temperature into closer balance. Therefore, the right-hand graph of figure T2 does not tell the whole story and it should be emphasised that in the first part of winter the risk of cold weather impacts is considerably

Met Office three month forecast -with exciting bits bold!No detail on any snow fall but key sentence"  the risk of impacts of impacts from cold weather is considerably higher than normal"

Slow changes

Atlantic fronts

Rain in northwest

Settled in southeast

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38138954 

Although some might say I just copy and paste the same forecast each year, I won't be doing a winter forecast for these coming 3 months, partly due to work commitments and partly due to the conflicting signals before us making producing an LRF very difficult, compared to the relative simplicity of last winter.

The forecasts I've seen so far seem to contain caveats with regard to what happens relatively soon when the Rex block finally moves away, but forecasters should be bold enough to make the call on this if they are producing a serious LRF.

Brian has the best record of winter LRFers that I've read over recent years, and he avoids the analysis paralysis that others get involved with, and I wish him all the very best with the TWO winter forecast.

Well, having lurked in the shadows for many years and carefully observed all that's gone on, I've decided this year to put my forecasting methodology to the test in the public arena. It's quite a brave forecast too - and hence the reason to test it out publicly. 

If it does verify, then I'll be more than happy to share my methodology - but if it doesn't then so be it, as it would all be rather meaningless... One thing I will say though is I take no notice whatsoever of the models... It constantly amazes me how we all know they are at times very unreliable and yet so many people get hung up on what they are forecasting - or seem to find difficulty in accepting that patterns can and do change!

So here goes. Thanks to Gavin P and K Bradshaw for some of the thinking that's gone in to it.

The key feature of the weather this winter will be the prominence of blocking, mainly centred around or near to the British Isles. This will on occasion link with extended ridging across Scandinavia and Greenland to enable particularly wintry conditions to develop and prevail. This will come as a shock after the run of milder winters experienced in the UK recently. Overall, conditions may exceed those experienced in December 2010, with the main difference being a later onset of them and a much more extended period of below average temperatures.

Month by month this is the forecast;

December

The start to the winter will begin on a benign note with high pressure centred over and to the East of the UK. Clear skies will allow frost to form in places, although cloud could prevent temperatures from dropping at times in some areas. Freezing fog could also become an issue for some.

As we move toward the middle of the month, high pressure will start to slowly sink towards the south with pressure also possibly rising in the Azores.  This may bring the chance of transient snow to some areas at first, particularly over higher ground.  This change heralds a milder interlude whereby more unsettled conditions will feed into the UK from the West / North West. During this period wetter conditions will generally prevail across the UK, except maybe the far south east corner.

Moving into the final third of the month and high pressure will again start to build over the UK. This will see the return of frosty and at times foggy conditions in places, although cloud may again keep temperatures up elsewhere. The timing of this is a little unclear but around the festive period / leading up to the end of the year, high pressure will turn retrograde and move out towards the Atlantic. This will allow cold air to feed in from the North East and with it the first significant snowfall event of the season.

January

The New Year begins with frosty conditions, with a covering of snow on the ground in many places. During the first week of the month, low pressure systems located to the south of the UK will interact with the high pressure now centred to our North West. This could lead to some significant disruption due to heavy falling snow, particularly in the South West, Western areas and the south of the country. Even further north, accumulations could be significant although the far north should escape the brunt of the snowfall.

As we move towards the middle of the month it will remain cold with further snowy interludes as conditions set up more of an easterly flow bringing snow showers to eastern counties and very cold nights.

At some point, probably approximately around mid-month, there will be an easing of the cold conditions as the high pressure stats to sink south again allowing a more westerly influence to develop. Quite how mild it will become is unclear, although there is also the possibility that this will only lead to a slight improvement in temperatures.

The respite will be relatively short lived as high pressure again reasserts itself over the UK, probably centred more to the north this time and linking with high pressure over Greenland. It is possible that at this time we will see further extensive snowfall for many areas of the UK - and that some of it could be severely disruptive.

The month ends on a cold note with clear and frosty conditions across much of the country. By this stage some areas may have seen lying snow for a number of weeks.

February

With a cold and crisp start to month, high pressure will continue to remain close the British Isles initially. As the month progresses this will again become more centred to our West and possibly lead to the coldest period of the winter.  An easterly flow will become established drawing air from Siberia across a cold Europe into Eastern England. Scotland should escape much of the most extreme conditions, particularly the far north. However some particularly cold nights will be experienced by many, with further snow showers and bitterly cold winds.

During this month there will be the potential for further snow at times as low pressure interacts with the cold air over the UK and again, some of this snow could prove to be disruptive. The cumulative effect of snow and ongoing freezing temperatures could see significant accumulations in places.

As we head into the final third of the month and with high pressure initially holding on to cold frosty conditions, it will begin to sink south eastwards. Along with the strengthening sun, this will bring in a milder feel from the south. Timing of this is uncertain - but either towards the final third of February or possibly as late as early March - temperatures will improve considerably with very mild conditions prevailing from southerly winds.

Thanks. It's a very difficult call this year IMO. It's clear the Met Office CPF now carries a significant amount of weight as a number of independents seem to readily follow it. Going against the CPF (if you think it likely to be wrong) is now the "brave" option. 

Welcome to TWO Stolen Snowman.

Good read and I hope your LRF pays off as I'd love to know how yiy come up with that. It sounds like the perfect winter for here 

Greece and the Eastern Med are a natural home for cold shots during winter, as the cold air naturally floods down the eastern side of the semi-permanent Euro high pressure. Always has been the case, even 100 years ago: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1917/Rrea00219170122.gif

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast 

Winter: Average but cold core

Forecast Issued 01/12/2016

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

PS: If the winter turns out to be a snorefest I may issue fortnightly updates. 

It's looking a good call at the moment Brian  the projected height rises to our NW look like pie in the sky at this moment in time.

You've done well in the past with these so hopefully your cold snowy January prediction comes off.

Great forecast.

I note that Brian's forecast goes against the latest ECM monthly for December, which has the highest rainfall totals (in terms of percentages) over the eastern half of the UK, with the lowest percentages over Norn Ireland and NW Scutland. So it will be interesting to see how it pans out and it is clear BG has his own methodology going on.

Interesting forecast Brian and all considered, a balanced and realistic one. So all the best with it.

Good to read Brian's forecast for the season. Interesting to note that Brian has gone for a mild start to the new year, whereas I have gone for the opposite.

So, in the best of sportsmanship (and Brian has the better form, let's be honest!) who will be right?

I shall return to post on New Year's day - to see where we are are then and what the prevailing conditions are. 

Have released GWV Winter 16/17 Forecast

Gong for a slightly colder than average Winter and dry.

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter2016-17-forecast-uk.php

Last winter opened with snow on the ground. This winter has opened to mild depressing gunk. Min of 7.2C max of 10.0C, windy and grey. Just awful and the continuation of an extremely boring and uninteresting spell that set in on Saturday. A high to the west with mild Atlantic muck spewing over the top of it is one of the worst set-ups. Need it to move northwards.

If only the rest of the month could be the total opposite of last year. I am at the end of my tether with the ridiculous amount of this type of utter crap we’ve had to endure in winter over the past 6 years. In particular, another poor festive period with barely a frost would be intolerable.

It is going to be a long winter, Richard.  I hope your fortunes change. 

May you be dumped upon from a great height (by many millions of snowflakes!).

Matt Hugo? Yes he's been an embarrassment of late, unbelievable some call themselves professionals.

Unlike Brian of course!

Interesting predictions from NOAA - see….

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php

What might happen downstream here in the UK…….?

I hear you. Since the legendary Dec 2010 spell we've had just one proper fall of snow here, in January 2013. I can't remember such a snowless period in my life - and the past 3 winters here have had the two wettest and mildest winters in recorded history. Now I look at the models this morn and I see charts that remind me of last December. Now, this winter is just beginning but I'm not getting my expectations up to say the least.

Well that would be the same here though only because I'm in the outskirts of town. Most of the city did poorly from the Jan 2013 fall and hasn't had anything like a decent fall since Dec 2010. Worse than the exceptional snowless period of the late 80s and early 90s when there were decent falls in Feb 1991, Jan 1993, Feb 1993, Nov 1993 and Dec 1993 - all better than anything in the last 6 years.

No sign of this ridiculous snow drought being brought to an end. Absolutely dismal and depressing start to winter - worse than last year with endless mild grey nothingness. Today was supposed to be an improvement but after 20 mins sun earlier - the only sun since Tuesday - the soul destroying drab overcast has returned. Nothing remotely cold with a min of 3.4C and the past 8 days have managed one solitary transitory frost of -0.5C.

At least in the 90s the mild winters were dry and bright and, with the foehn effect common, it often felt springlike. What we get now is ghastly - more like an extension of autumn with the mildness always most pronounced during the night and daytime temperatures barely any higher. Some of the wettest winter weather in decades has occurred in the past few years: Dec 2012,winter 2013/14 and Jan 2016.

Wouldn't mind betting that the frost total of 95.4 hours in November is better than any of the three winter months can muster.